Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 16–20

Jun 15, 2025 3 min read paid

The moment Fed watchers have waited for is finally here—albeit with less drama than many believed a few weeks back. As we've long said, the two-day June Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Tue-Wed) should come and go with the federal funds rate still in the 4.25%-4.50% range that it's been in since December. Even as headline inflation measures appear to moderate, the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: In The Middle Of The Middle East

Jun 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Israel is in the middle of the Middle East. Iran's Mullahs have been threatening Israel's existence since they overthrew the Shah of Iran in February 1979. There has been a covert war between the two since then. It turned more overt last year and escalated on Friday when Israel launched a preemptive strike targeting nuclear facilities (Natanz, Khondab, Fordow), military installations, and residences of senior officials

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Chilling Down While Middle East Is Heating Up

Jun 12, 2025 4 min read paid

May's PPI inflation report, released today, was lower than expected as was May's CPI inflation report yesterday. The PPI final demand for personal consumption edged down to 2.6% y/y in May, while the CPI rose only 2.4% during the month (chart). Both suggest that May's PCED inflation rate might have dropped to 2.0%, which would finally be down to the

Ed Yardeni

Stagflation’s Absence, Trump’s Deal-Making, Government’s Higher Debt

Jun 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market didn't do much today. Neither did the bond market. But the price of a barrel of crude oil rose, and so did the price of an ounce of gold. President Donald Trump announced another deal with China. The US will allow Chinese students to continue attending American colleges, and China will continue to provide rare earth minerals to American manufacturers. Tariffs imposed on each country

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Americans Are Still Working For A Living

Jun 11, 2025 1 min read paid

Over the past three and a half years, the US economy has defied the recession expectations of many, remaining uncommonly resilient in the face of stress tests including Fed tightening, an oil price spike, and most recently Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. The economy’s strength despite these formidable challenges supports our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario (to which we assign 75% odds) and our still bullish S&P 500 targets.

Ed Yardeni

Betting On Bullish Hard Data, Not Bearish Soft Data

Jun 10, 2025 2 min read paid

The “soft” economic data releases have been weak, while the “hard” data have been strong in recent months. The former includes surveys of consumers, small business owners, and purchasing managers. We've been betting on the resilience of the economy, as confirmed by the hard data. Stock investors seem to agree with our view. The purchasing managers indexes for both manufacturing (M-PMI) and non-manufacturing (NM-PMI) remained weak through May.

Ed Yardeni

Inflationary Expectations Decline In US As China Deflates

Jun 9, 2025 3 min read paid

In the hilarious comedy movie "What About Bob," Bill Murray, who plays Bob, tells his shrink "that there are two types of people in this world. Those who like Neil Diamond and those who don't." There also seem to be two types of respondents to surveys of inflationary expectations: like those included in the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) survey and those included in the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Essential Rare Earth Minerals

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the June 5, 2025 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research, Inc. “People who live in glass houses should not throw stones.” That’s a saying that President Trump should have taken to heart before slapping aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports, because China has one thing that the US lacks and needs: rare earth minerals. These minerals are necessary components of high-tech equipment like automobiles, robots, and

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 9 - 13

Jun 8, 2025 4 min read

Many of the questions the Fed has about how Trump's trade war is impacting the inflation outlook will get timely answers this week. Well, updates at least, since only President Donald Trump knows how long Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) will continue disrupting the world's biggest economy. On Friday, we learned that half of Fed's dual mandate is doing just fine. The full-employment

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Meltup Again? (Do We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear?)

Jun 8, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has become tariff-scare-proof now that the S&P 500 is only 2.3% below its February 19 record high despite Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) since then. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, the stock market has also become recession-scare-proof. According to Polymarkets, the odds of a recession were back down to 27% on Friday from a recent peak of 66% on May 1

Ed Yardeni

He Said, Xi Said

Jun 5, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump said today that he had a "very good talk" with China's President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond, currency, and commodity traders have become jaded about Trump's tumultuous trade dealmaking. Even rising concerns about a shortage of Chinese rare earth minerals (needed by

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Bag

Jun 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.36% today on a batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators. Bond investors weren't fazed by Elon Musk's attack on President Trump's "big beautiful bill" on Tuesday afternoon. Musk thinks it’s ugly: "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination." Nor were they fazed by the fact that the

Ed Yardeni

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