Ed Yardeni

Russian Roulette, the Dollar, and Gold

Jul 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The US stock market held up very well today in the face of Trump's escalation of his trade war with the world over the weekend. Maybe that's because he threatened that his latest tariff salvo won't be fired until August 1 (i.e., Liberation Day II). So there is still time to negotiate trade deals. Today, he also threatened to impose 100% "secondary&

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Trump's Reign Of Tariffs Ain't Over

Jul 13, 2025 9 min read paid

💡The following is an advance excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated July 14, 2025. We are providing it in place of our usual Market Call QuickTakes. Trump’s Tariffs I: More Tariff Turmoil. It’s July. Back in March, we expected that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT) would become less tumultuous by the end of the summer. We figured that President Donald Trump would start to declare victory in his

Ed Yardeni

Week Ahead: July 14 - 18

Jul 13, 2025 4 min read

This will be a jampacked week for economic indicators and big banks' Q2 earnings reports. We are relatively optimistic about the latter, which should be bullish for the stock market. The inflation news may show some signs of tariff-related warming. Consumer-related data are likely to be be mixed. The White House will probably keep tariffs and the Fed in the news on a daily basis. On balance, we expect

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

DEEP DIVE: Trump & Bessent Versus Powell & The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 13, 2025 4 min read

💡This is an excerpt from the July 7, 2025 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research, Inc. US Debt I: Trump vs Powell. President Donald Trump wants lower interest rates. He blames Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping them too high. He has been saying so since his first term in office as President. He said so again on June 27: “I think we should be paying 1% right now, and we’

Ed Yardeni

The Roaring 2020s: Six Years of Resilience, So Far

Jul 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy won't let us down. Despite numerous crises, real GDP has remained recession-resistant since the Covid lockdown during the first half of 2020. That's almost six recession-free years notwithstanding the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the tightening of monetary policy, the war in the Middle East, and Trump's Tariff Turmoil. Despite the five crises, it really has been the Roaring 2020s so

Ed Yardeni

Uncertainty & Breadth

Jul 9, 2025 3 min read paid

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times. Most of

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump & Bessent Versus Powell & The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 9, 2025 1 min read paid

President Trump is determined to lower the interest paid on government debt one way or the other. One way is replacing Fed Chair Powell with a Trump loyalist who tries to convince the rest of the FOMC that the federal funds rate must fall, the data be damned. Another involves replacing maturing long-term Treasury bonds with short-term Treasury bills until long-term bond yields fall enough to refinance advantageously. Such “Yield

Ed Yardeni

Seinfeld Kind Of Summer Day

Jul 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Nothing happened today in the financial markets. The prices of stocks, bonds, the dollar, and oil all were relatively flat. On the other hand, there was more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT). But the markets watched it all with as much interest as watching reruns on TV. President Donald Trump huffed and puffed again. The financial markets' reaction was ho-hum. Trump today announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on

Ed Yardeni

Liberation Day II

Jul 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Liberation Day I occurred on Wednesday, April 2 after the stock market closed, when President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners. The immediate reaction was what we called "Annihilation Days" in the stock and bond markets until April 9, when Liberation Day I was postponed until July 9 (chart). Today, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs again on 14 countries. Their governments have until August

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 7-11

Jul 6, 2025 3 min read

There's not much on this week's economic calendar. The only big event was supposed to occur on Wednesday, July 9. That would have been 90 days after President Donald Trump postponed his April 2 reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners on April 9 for 90 days. Today, that deadline was postponed again, to August 1. This morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Slow-Mo Meltup Fueled By Less Uncertainty

Jul 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

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