Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Affordability Crisis

Dec 1, 2025 7 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the December 1, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Affordability I: A Depressed State of Mind. Why are consumers so depressed? The monthly Consumer Optimism Index (COI), which is the average of the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), fell to 69.5 in November (Fig. 1 below). That’s a level consistent with previous recession troughs in this average index. The

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 1-5

Nov 30, 2025 3 min read

With the odds of a December Fed rate cut starting the week at 86% (according to CME FedWatch), the Fed and investors alike probably wish more hard economic data were hitting the tape. Ten days ahead of the most anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year, the hawks and doves are doing a bang-up job making their cases for either waiting until late January to lower the federal

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Santa's Rally

Nov 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Santa's back. During the past week, the S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost the week before when it was knocked down hard by the plunge in bitcoin and by fears that the AI bubble-bursting story was true, just as the AI bubble storytellers have been warning. Here is the story we told in a QuickTakes on November 23: "Once their panic selling [of

Ed Yardeni

Cornucopia of Data

Nov 27, 2025 4 min read

We are thankful for your interest in our research. Happy Thanksgiving! Now that the government shutdown is over, there is plenty of data again with which to assess the economy's performance. On balance, GDP growth remains robust despite lackluster labor market indicators. Consumers are consuming. Inflation is subdued just below 3.0%. The federal deficit remains enormous. Federal tax receipts confirm the economy is growing. Nevertheless, the Fed,

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 2026 Is Coming!

Nov 26, 2025 1 min read

Our base-case outlook calls for a continuation of the Roaring 2020s scenario next year, with ongoing productivity gains that fuel a robust economy, which propels earnings and the stock market higher. Today, Dr Ed reviews the Roaring 2020s thesis; outlines what he expects 2026 will bring in terms of economic variables, earnings, and the S&P 500; makes portfolio allocation recommendations; and weighs in on the “Impressive-493,” the rising

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 2026 Is Coming!

Nov 25, 2025 8 min read

This is an excerpt of the November 24, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Roaring ’20s I: Just Another Year of the Roaring 2020s. We are getting into the warm-and-fuzzy spirit of the holidays. Thanksgiving is on Thursday. Hanukkah begins the evening of December 14 and lasts through the evening of December 22. Christmas Eve is on December 24. Kwanzaa is from December 6 through January 1. The season ends with

Ed Yardeni

Joy Ride

Nov 24, 2025 3 min read

At the start of November, we expected a pullback in the stock market because the Bull-Bear Ratio we monitor indicated too many bulls. That's bearish from a contrarian perspective. Could the pullback be over already? It might be if the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10. The stock market took a gut-wrenching dive on Thursday last week. It's still not obvious why the drop

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 24-28

Nov 23, 2025 3 min read

During this holiday-shortened week, investors will receive a cornucopia of data now that the government is open again. Some of the data will be a bit stale. But they should indicate how Q3 ended for the economy. September's retail sales report (Tue) should show a solid increase, with strength in spending by higher-income shoppers more than offsetting the weakness in spending by lower-income workers. This dichotomy is supported

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Time To Meditate

Nov 23, 2025 5 min read

The S&P 500 is back on a slower track than the fast track it was on since April 9 until the end of October. It no longer is outpacing its average year-to-date performance over the past 10 years (chart). In fact, it is up 12.3% ytd, matching the average year-end performance of the past 10 years. However, the S&P 500 did peak at a record-high

Ed Yardeni

To Bail Or Not To Bail?

Nov 20, 2025 4 min read

Good news bears were on the loose today. It was a risk-off day in financial markets despite strong earnings and economic news. Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q3 results yesterday after the market closed. This morning, we learned that payroll employment rose more than expected in September and that initial unemployment claims remained subdued last week. Nevertheless, it was a bad day for stock investors. The stock market pullback that we expected

Ed Yardeni

Data-Dependent

Nov 19, 2025 3 min read

What do Nvidia and the Fed have in common? They are both data-dependent. Nvidia's GPUs are the latest stage of the Digital Revolution, which started during the mid-1960s with IBM's mainframes. The Digital Revolution is all about processing ever more data, faster and faster, and at ever lower cost. In this context, GPUs are just the latest development in the Digital Revolution. The next big, new

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: All About Earnings

Nov 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The economy and corporate profits have been remarkably resilient in recent years despite numerous formidable challenges. This year continued the remarkable performance, as Trump’s Tariff Turmoil failed to derail earnings or the economy. As a result, the stock market has soared. We remain optimistic on the outlooks for the economy, earnings, and the stock market, supported by a continuation of this year’s remarkable earnings strength into 2026. … However,

Ed Yardeni

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