Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Halloween Is Coming

Oct 22, 2025 1 min read paid

Investors’ panic attack Thursday was another of many short-lived frights that haunt bull runs. Our economic analyses help us spot the difference between panic-generated minor pullbacks and scarier downturns like corrections and bear markets. Corrections tend to occur when investors fear a recession that doesn’t happen. Bear markets tend to be caused by recessions. Currently, the economy remains resilient, and a recession is unlikely, in our opinion. Plenty of

Ed Yardeni

China's Economy Has A Few Major Problems

Oct 21, 2025 3 min read

China's economy is struggling with excessive debt, deflation, excess capacity, and a rapidly aging population. China continues to rely on exports to support economic growth. China has been increasingly accused of dumping its excess production in world markets. This is exacerbating trade frictions, especially with the US. The Chinese government's efforts to stimulate domestic consumption have largely failed to achieve this goal. The problem is that

Ed Yardeni

Market Musings

Oct 20, 2025 3 min read paid

Apple's stock price hit a new record high today on a report that sales of this year's iPhone models had started strongly. Shares of the tech giant climbed 3.9%, closing at $262.24 and helping the company surpass Microsoft to become the second largest in the US by market capitalization (chart). Only Nvidia is larger. That helped to lift the S&P 500 by

Ed Yardeni

Economic Week Ahead: October 20-24

Oct 19, 2025 3 min read

We're entering yet another week of limited visibility on the economy thanks to the government shutdown. This leaves markets attempting to fill the statistical void with private surveys, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and the odd corporate report to gauge the balance of economic risks. This gives added weight to October's flash purchasing managers' index data (Fri) for both manufacturing and services. Just as important

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Did Santa Come Early To Wall Street? Is He Leaving Now?

Oct 18, 2025 3 min read

We've been monitoring the relationship between the S&P 500's ytd performance versus its comparable average of the past 10 years (chart). This year, the index has been much more volatile than the average and has outperformed the average by about five percentage points since early August. Does this mean that the traditional Santa Claus rally started early this year and is over already? Over

Ed Yardeni

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: AI, Oracle & Big Brother

Oct 17, 2025 4 min read paid

In this new world of AI, we tend to focus on all of the positives it can bring to our lives by doing things faster, smarter, and more efficiently. But there is also a darker side to AI: Governments and law enforcement agencies can use it to establish a surveillance state. To understand what happens when AI and technology are used to control populations, one needs only look at China.

Jackie Doherty
Ed Yardeni

Cockroaches

Oct 17, 2025 3 min read paid

"When you see one cockroach, there are probably more," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on the company's earnings conference call earlier this week in relation to the First Brands and Tricolor Holdings fallout. These are two auto-related companies that have recently declared bankruptcy. First Brands, which is in the auto parts business, reportedly is facing a criminal investigation. Tricolor specialized in used car sales and subprime

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 And Gold Price Racing Toward $10,000 By 2029?

Oct 16, 2025 4 min read paid

We first began writing about our Roaring 2020s scenario in 2020. So far, so good. Both the S&P 500 and the price of gold have been roaring ahead to new record highs this year (chart). We wouldn't be surprised if both hit 10,000 by the end of the decade. The stock price index and the gold price have exhibited an inverse cyclical correlation, but their

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin's Among Economic Indicators

Oct 15, 2025 4 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 14 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. We are sharing it with our QuickTakes members today. It isn’t easy being an economist when the government shutdown shuts off the flow of economic data. Nevertheless, the Fed is still open for business and issuing economic releases. So are several private-sector sources of economic indicators. On balance, the data we do have suggest that

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump Trade Turmoil, Again

Oct 15, 2025 1 min read paid

The latest US–China aggressions have the financial markets worried about the high stakes of a trade war between the globe’s biggest trading nation and its largest economy. William observes that a disruption to global supply chains would have adverse consequences for earnings, economic growth, and central banks’ pursuit of their mandates. But given the severity of the consequences, we expect a quick de-escalation of the tensions, with both

Ed Yardeni

Gold Is The New Bitcoin!

Oct 14, 2025 4 min read paid

Investors are mining for gold and rare earth minerals. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) are up 57.3% and 104.4% ytd (Fig. 1 below). The trading volumes of both have increased sharply in recent weeks (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3). Both have been benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions between the US and both Russia and China. On October

Ed Yardeni

Will Next Year Be Another Good Year To Go Global?

Oct 13, 2025 4 min read paid

Go Global has outperformed Stay Home so far this year. Based on FTSE data, the US stock market index (up 11.8% ytd) has underperformed the World index (13.4%) so far this year in local currency (chart). Its underperformance has been worse in US dollar terms since the greenback has been weak this year. Among the outperformers this year, in local currency, have been South Korea (56.0%), Spain

Ed Yardeni
David Yardeni

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