Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 9-13

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of inflation updates. We're expecting stickier inflation readings that should ruffle the feathers of the Fed's doves. The FOMC is in a blackout period ahead of its December 17-18 meeting, meaning FOMC members won't be able to comment publicly. If the CPI news changes their minds about cutting the federal funds rate (FFR), they'll have to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Will Trump 2.0 Be Volatile?

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

In recent conversations with our accounts, many of them said that the financial markets may be more volatile under Trump 2.0 over the next six months than they were over the past 12-18 months. In Thursday's QT, we observed that contrarian indicators are showing that there are too many bulls, which is bearish. A couple of prominent and vocal permabears recently conceded that the bulls have been

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Does the Stock Market Have a Valuation Problem?

Dec 6, 2024 6 min read paid

Strategy I: Valuation & Growth. As we’ve seen over the past three years, stock investors don’t like recessions, not even the no-shows. There was much anxiety about an imminent recession from January 3, 2022 through October 12, 2022, as reflected by the 25.4% drop in the S&P 500 over that period. Over that period, industry analysts confirmed investors’ fears by lowering their consensus expectations for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls

Dec 5, 2024 3 min read

We were very bullish at the start of this year with a Street-high year-end price target of 5400 for the S&P 500. That level was surpassed on June 12. We weren't bullish enough as the stampeding bulls left hoof marks on our backs. So we raised our target to 5800 on July 10, which was surpassed on November 6 (chart). So we raised our target to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Let The Good Times Roll

Dec 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Salesforce beat Q3 earnings expectations today, but that's not what drove the company's shares 11% higher. CEO Marc Benioff did that by touting the company's AI-powered chatbots on today's quarterly earnings call. He sparked renewed AI optimism that lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new record highs. AI differs from the dotcom mania of the late 1990s. It is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 12/4/24

Dec 4, 2024 1 min read paid

Today, Dr. Ed examines Baby Boomer economics. The Boomers are sitting on sizable nest eggs that continue to expand along with home prices and stock prices. They are starting to spend more of their net worth as they retire. Many Boomers are not empty nesters but have grown children living at home and are providing them with financial support. The population bulge that has had outsized effects on markets in

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Jobs Market: Onwards & Upwards

Dec 3, 2024 2 min read paid

We've contended all year that the labor market was normalizing from the unsustainable pace of hiring during the pandemic. We disagreed with the view that it was weakening. Now we are turning more upbeat about the outlook for employment. Our bet is that the animal spirits unleased by Trump 2.0 will soon be reflected in more job openings and a faster pace of hiring. Today's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Manufacturing Indicators May Be Rebounding in US and China

Dec 2, 2024 2 min read paid

After languishing for the past couple years, manufacturing gauges in both the US and China improved in November. Could this be the start of a rolling recovery for both countries' goods producers? We think so, though a tariff war would spoil the party quickly. A revival in US goods production would likely boost bond yields as growth expectations increase. The 10-year Treasury yield could breach 4.5% by year-end

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale will be November's employment report on Friday. We are expecting this week's indicators to beat expectations, boosting the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and sending yields a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: The Trump/Musk/Vivek/Santa Rally

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

For better or worse, Trump's New World Order will certainly be different from Biden's Old World Order. Moreover, the globalists of the World Economic Forum, headed by Klaus Schwab (and Greta Thunberg), are about to be seriously challenged by Trump's anti-globalists. Klaus has been calling for the "Great Reset" including a "stakeholder economy," replacing fossil fuels with solar and wind

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Is Trump 2.0 Bullish Or Bearish?

Nov 27, 2024 8 min read paid

Trump 2.0 I: Lots of Moving Parts So far, it has been the Roaring 2020s for the US economy and US stock market. Real GDP is at a record high, and so is the S&P 500. That’s impressive considering that the global economy was hit by a pandemic at the start of the decade, there was a radical regime change from Trump 1.0 to the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Home For the Holidays

Nov 27, 2024 3 min read

This is the time of the year when we all count our blessings. The Yardeni Research team thanks you for your interest in our research. We wish you a great Thanksgiving tomorrow with your family and friends at your home or theirs. Since 2010, we've been recommending a Stay Home investment strategy, i.e., overweighting the US in global equity portfolios, rather than a Go Global strategy. So

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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