Ed Yardeni

Investors May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy

Jul 24, 2025 2 min read paid

The four-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims provides a real-time indicator of the labor market (chart). It has been improving recently as the four-week average of jobless claims has been falling. Employers may be less concerned about the possible adverse impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy and on their companies. They should also be gaining confidence in the economy's resilience

Ed Yardeni

Slow-Motion Meltup Continues

Jul 24, 2025 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up to record high closes today, lifted by Nvidia and GE Vernova. Trump's Tariff Turmoil appears to be subsiding, just as we expected it would during the summer. Investors are welcoming President Donald Trump's recent tariff deals and expect more before the August 1 deadline set by the President. The European Union and the US appear headed toward

Ed Yardeni

Trump's Tariffs Go To Court

Jul 23, 2025 5 min read

The following is a note on imminent court decisions regarding President Donald Trump's tariffs, written by Jim Lucier, one of the best Washington watchers we know and a good friend of Yardeni Research. Jim is one of the founders of Capital Alpha Partners, LLC, a leading, independent provider of strategic policy research and political forecasting. For more details about the Capital Alpha team, please email inquiries@capalphadc.com�

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Foreigners LOVE American Securities

Jul 23, 2025 1 min read paid

Like Blanche DuBois, the US Treasury has been dependent on the kindness of strangers, particularly foreign investors. Doomsters warn that foreign investors are losing their confidence in US Treasuries and in the US dollar. Yet, the Treasury’s latest TICS data show that they remain strong buyers of US debt. In addition, they’ve bought a record amount of US equities over the past 12 months. Dr Ed reviews the

Ed Yardeni

Washington Creates Buzz 24x7

Jul 22, 2025 3 min read paid

Can't we get a day without news coming out of the White House? Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an "exhaustive internal review" of the Fed's "non-monetary policy operations." He accused the central bank of "significant mission creep." He did so on CNBC in the morning. In a lengthy post on X, Bessent sought to clarify his

Ed Yardeni

Fed Day (7/30) To Be Followed By Liberation Day II (8/1)

Jul 21, 2025 2 min read paid

The next couple of weeks will certainly be interesting. The FOMC will decide on whether to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) or not on July 30. On August 1, the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from America's trading partners. Furthermore, administration officials will undoubtedly continue to beat up on the Fed, especially if the FOMC decides not to lower the FFR next week. This

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: What If the Fed Hints At A September Rate Cut Next Week?

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read paid

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7% based on futures pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool. A strong June jobs report, which added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls and showed the unemployment rate drop to 4.1%, has significantly reduced expectations for a July cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have emphasized a cautious, data-

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 21-25

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read

This might be a good week to take a summer vacation. The economic data calendar is light. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell will speak in Washington, perhaps offering an update on his views on employment, inflation, and interest rates. He won't comment on calls for his resignation. Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman could make some news at the same conference the following day. The European Central Bank is

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Trump Dealing ... Consumers Consuming ... Employers Employing

Jul 17, 2025 4 min read paid

Liberation Day II is coming on August 1. President Donald Trump has stated that it won't be postponed, unlike Liberation Day I, which was initially scheduled for April 2 but was postponed to July 9 and then to August 1. According to a July 10 Reuters report, Trump is considering raising his 10% base tariff to 15% or 20% on most trading partners by that deadline. That would

Ed Yardeni

PPI Report Comes With A Warning Label!

Jul 16, 2025 2 min read paid

On Tuesday, June's CPI report was warmer than expected. Today's June PPI report was cooler than expected. Yesterday, we argued that while Trump's tariffs may not be boosting inflation, they may have halted its fall to the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. Measures of consumer price inflation may be stuck closer to 3.0% for a while as a result. This reduces

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs Ain’t Over

Jul 16, 2025 1 min read paid

We had expected that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil would have subsided by now, and investors probably assumed the same since the financial markets have been so okay with it all in recent weeks. But the resilience of the economy, the moderation of inflation, and the calmness of the markets seem to have emboldened the President: He has not relented on his tariff war with the world as expected by now

Ed Yardeni

Is Inflation Stuck At 3.0% Because Of Trump's Tariffs?

Jul 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's CPI report for June suggests that consumer price inflation is no longer declining toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Instead, it might continue to hover around 3.0% for a while as it has recently (chart). Trump's tariffs may be a contributing factor, though their impact remains debated. The core CPI inflation rate upticked to 2.9% last month, hinting that the core

Ed Yardeni

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