Ed Yardeni

Fed Easing Fails To Ease Bond Yields

Dec 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Have you heard? The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. That would be a 175bps cut in the FFR since the Fed started its latest monetary easing cycle in September of last year. In his October press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Now we’re

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 8-12

Dec 7, 2025 3 min read

Obviously, this week is all about the Fed's big interest-rate decision (Wed); the policymakers are expected almost universally to cut rates 25bps for a third time this year. The immediate focus will be on the composition of the FOMC's vote and the insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: how many dissenters, if any; Fed officials' take on the balance of

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Rebalancing Domestic & Global Stock Portfolios In 2026

Dec 7, 2025 4 min read paid

It no longer makes much sense for us to continue recommending overweighting the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors in an S&P 500 portfolio, as we have since 2015. The same can be said about overweighting the United States in the All Country World (ACW) MSCI portfolio, as we have been since 2010. Consider the following: (1) Rebalancing S&P 500 portfolio. The problem is that the

Ed Yardeni

CODE RED: Altman's Existential Crisis & Trump's Affordability Crisis

Dec 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market has lost its mojo recently. The S&P 500 has been hovering around 6800 since late November. It did recover nicely from a November 20 low of 6538. But the rebound since then has failed to lift the index above the October 29 record high of 6890. It may break out above that high after the FOMC’s December 9-10 meeting if the Fed delivers

Ed Yardeni

Despite Confusing Stuff, S&P 500 Remains Near Record High

Dec 3, 2025 3 min read

There are lots of confusing recent developments for stock investors to consider. The economic indicators are mixed, with some justifying a December 10 rate cut by the Fed, others not. President Donald Trump said he will announce his pick for the next Fed chair in January. It's not clear whether the Fed will be more or less independent as a result. The Supreme Court is likely to rule

Ed Yardeni

More Thoughts On Bitcoin, Stablecoin & Gold

Dec 2, 2025 3 min read paid

We do not have an opinion on bitcoin because we don't have any way to value it. It has been widely called "digital gold." We've previously described bitcoin as "digital tulips." That makes us sound bearish since the famous Tulip Bulb Bubble burst in Amsterdam several centuries ago, once it was realized that the small Dutch market had run out of buyers

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Affordability Crisis

Dec 1, 2025 7 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the December 1, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Affordability I: A Depressed State of Mind. Why are consumers so depressed? The monthly Consumer Optimism Index (COI), which is the average of the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), fell to 69.5 in November (Fig. 1 below). That’s a level consistent with previous recession troughs in this average index. The

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 1-5

Nov 30, 2025 3 min read

With the odds of a December Fed rate cut starting the week at 86% (according to CME FedWatch), the Fed and investors alike probably wish more hard economic data were hitting the tape. Ten days ahead of the most anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this year, the hawks and doves are doing a bang-up job making their cases for either waiting until late January to lower the

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Santa's Rally

Nov 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Santa's back. During the past week, the S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost the week before when it was knocked down hard by the plunge in bitcoin and by fears that the AI bubble-bursting story was true, just as the AI bubble storytellers have been warning. Here is the story we told in a QuickTakes on November 23: "Once their panic selling

Ed Yardeni

Cornucopia of Data

Nov 27, 2025 4 min read

We are thankful for your interest in our research. Happy Thanksgiving! Now that the government shutdown is over, there is plenty of data again with which to assess the economy's performance. On balance, GDP growth remains robust despite lackluster labor market indicators. Consumers are consuming. Inflation is subdued just below 3.0%. The federal deficit remains enormous. Federal tax receipts confirm the economy is growing. Nevertheless, the Fed,

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: 2026 Is Coming!

Nov 26, 2025 1 min read

Our base-case outlook calls for a continuation of the Roaring 2020s scenario next year, with ongoing productivity gains that fuel a robust economy, which propels earnings and the stock market higher. Today, Dr Ed reviews the Roaring 2020s thesis; outlines what he expects 2026 will bring in terms of economic variables, earnings, and the S&P 500; makes portfolio allocation recommendations; and weighs in on the “Impressive-493,

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: 2026 Is Coming!

Nov 25, 2025 8 min read

This is an excerpt of the November 24, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Roaring ’20s I: Just Another Year of the Roaring 2020s. We are getting into the warm-and-fuzzy spirit of the holidays. Thanksgiving is on Thursday. Hanukkah begins the evening of December 14 and lasts through the evening of December 22. Christmas Eve is on December 24. Kwanzaa is from December 6 through January 1. The season

Ed Yardeni

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