Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 4-8

Aug 3, 2025 3 min read

Compared to last week’s dramatic data surprises, this week’s offerings are decidedly of the slim-pickings variety. But boring, the days ahead will not be. While we’re still of the thinking that President Donald Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair’s fate could be written between the lines of any data series that undershoots expectations. Following Friday’s weaker-than-expected July employment report, Trump wasted

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Freaky Friday

Aug 3, 2025 4 min read

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On

Ed Yardeni

Tomorrow is August 1

Jul 31, 2025 2 min read paid

The April 2 Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were postponed on April 9 to July 9 and again to August 1. The S&P 500's latest correction bottomed on April 8. The rebound to new record highs has been extraordinary. Today's selloff on mostly good news suggests that investors and traders might be starting to take profits before going on their August vacations. They might also

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On The Roaring 2020s

Jul 30, 2025 1 min read paid

With special guest Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners Halfway through the decade, our Roaring 2020s investment theme remains on track. The US economy continues to prove remarkably resilient, supported by the robust spending of businesses and consumers, especially Baby Boomers. So far this year, it has been acing the stress tests of Trump’s trade policies. If the final years of the decade pan out as expected, Dr Ed

Ed Yardeni

Let The Games Begin!

Jul 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Tomorrow will be action-packed. Wednesday morning, the US Treasury will issue its Quarterly Refunding Statement detailing how it intends to finance $1.0 trillion in marketable securities during Q3. The question is whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will rely more on doing so in the Treasury bill market, as recently suggested by President Donald Trump. Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC will issue a press release at 2:00 p.m., most

Ed Yardeni

Wednesday Is Not Just Fed Day But Also Treasury’s Refunding Day

Jul 28, 2025 3 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision. Odds are that it will be a non-event, i.e., the federal funds rate will remain unchanged (chart). The only drama will be whether the FOMC sticks to the current party line: "We are in no rush to lower interest rates." Or, will it signal a dovish pivot? If Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 28 - August 1

Jul 27, 2025 3 min read

This is a big week on the monetary policy front, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada all holding policy meetings. Naturally, the main event will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s widely expected decision (Wed) to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. We are among those expecting no change. However, we do expect that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference (Wed) will

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Path Of Least Resistance

Jul 27, 2025 2 min read paid

President Donald Trump is on a roll. He now has 33 trade deals—with the UK, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and the 27 countries that are members of the European Union (EU). The EU deal was announced today. The deals show that Trump has raised his baseline tariff to 15% from 10%. He must figure that, in addition to his other tariffs, the US should collect at least

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Foreign Investors Love US Stocks & Bonds

Jul 25, 2025 7 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated July 21, 2025. Foreign Buyers I: Loading Up on US Treasuries & Equities. The phrase "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers" is a famous line from Tennessee Williams' play, A Streetcar Named Desire. It's spoken by the character Blanche DuBois in the final scene as a doctor and a nurse are leading

Ed Yardeni

Investors May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy

Jul 24, 2025 2 min read paid

The four-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims provides a real-time indicator of the labor market (chart). It has been improving recently as the four-week average of jobless claims has been falling. Employers may be less concerned about the possible adverse impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy and on their companies. They should also be gaining confidence in the economy's resilience as validated by

Ed Yardeni

Slow-Motion Meltup Continues