Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Demographics Entrench Deflation In China

May 24, 2025 3 min read paid

For a decade now, economists have been theorizing about how China’s aging and shrinking population might affect its economic growth potential (Fig. 1 below and Fig. 2 below). Yet there’s nothing conjectural about the ways demographics are now exacerbating the nation’s deflation troubles. As Japan’s experience since the 1990s has highlighted, few Asians in their mid-60s and higher consume with gusto as twenty- and thirty-somethings do.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

The Elephants In The Room

May 22, 2025 3 min read

The elephant is as good a metaphor as there is for the US government bond market. Its scale, power, memory, emotional intelligence, and tendency to live in complex family groups—just like the broad array of debt instruments—are right on the nose . . . er, trunk. Yet this week, we saw that the room in which the bond market operates has more than one elephant. The other large mammal in question

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Is A US Government Debt Crisis Imminent?

May 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock investors have been less "tarrified" about President Donald Trump's tariffs since April 9, when he postponed most of his proposed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days (chart). However, they may now be getting spooked that the bond market might be on the verge of a debt crisis, especially after Moody's downgraded US government debt on Friday and Japanese bond yields soared in recent days.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/21/25

May 21, 2025 1 min read paid

Meltup In Stocks Or Meltdown In Bonds? Two scenarios to put on your radar: Bond prices might melt down if the Bond Vigilantes are roused by the downgrading of the US’s sovereign debt rating and/or the prospect that Trump’s tax-cut bill worsens the federal budget deficit outlook and/or tariff-related inflation. But a bond market meltdown could force Washington to set the US onto a more sustainable

Ed Yardeni

Risk On & Off Here & There

May 20, 2025 4 min read paid

As the world turns, so do risk-on and risk-off trades around the world. Some are for the short term and based on technical factors. Others are for the long term and based on fundamentals. Let's take a quick tour around the world: (1) Japan. While pessimists have been predicting an imminent sovereign debt crisis in the US, it seems to be unfolding in Japan currently. Amid a shrinking

Ed Yardeni

Let Them Eat Tariffs!

May 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Walmart warned last week that it will have to raise prices because of President Donald Trump's tariffs. On Saturday, the President advised the country's largest retailer that it should "eat the tariffs." Retailers operate with very thin profit margins (chart). If they don't raise their prices, they stand to lose money on their sales. That's not a sustainable business model.

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Valuation Mojo Driving Stocks' Big Mo Rally

May 18, 2025 2 min read paid

The meltup scenario is making a dramatic comeback. It was one of our three scenarios until March 24 when we wrote the following in our Morning Briefing: "We've decided to fold our 1990s meltup/meltdown scenario into our Roaring 2020s scenario. The current correction in the stock market suggests that the former has played out already, as the bull market's highflyers have been hit hardest

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 19–23

May 18, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead is light on economic indicators. Fed officials undoubtedly will make some headlines. They are likely to reiterate Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his May 7 presser: "We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

DEEP DIVE: A Semiconductor Revival

May 17, 2025 4 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Jackie Doherty

Not Much Stagflation Today

May 15, 2025 4 min read

Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he and President Donald Trump were focusing on the 10-year Treasury bond yield as a key metric for economic health, rather than the Fed's short-term interest rate. He stated, "He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," indicating a strategy to manage borrowing costs through fiscal policy rather than pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

POTUS: From Tariff Man To Global Salesman

May 14, 2025 2 min read paid

Stock investors are much happier now that President Donald Trump seems to be pivoting from pushing prohibitive tariffs to pushing American semiconductors and Boeing jets in the Middle East. President Donald Trump used a state visit to Qatar today to announce a large purchase by Qatar Airways of Boeing jets. Trump said the order was for 160 airplanes and claimed it was the largest order in Boeing's history.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/14/25

May 14, 2025 1 min read paid

Earnings & Valuation Under Trump 2.0 So Far Even though Q1 earnings were fabulous, most economists, industry analysts, and corporate managements have low hopes that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil won’t dunk the US economy into a recession this year. Not us: We’re counting on the economy’s resilience. Today, Dr Ed discusses why the widely expected recession, like others in recent years, will be a no-show. Hard-to-ignore

Ed Yardeni

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