Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 15 - 19

Apr 14, 2024 2 min read paid

Following Iran's attack on Israel Saturday, geopolitics should dominate this week's market action. The Q1 earnings reporting season will also merit investors' attention. In addition, Fed officials are likely to chatter about whether any rate cuts are likely this year given last week's hotter-than-expected March CPI. And there are plenty of economic reports coming out this week. They are likely to show that

Ed Yardeni

The Spreading War In The Middle East

Apr 12, 2024 3 min read

Ever since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, we've warned that the latest war in the Middle East between these arch enemies could be protracted and spread to the rest of the region. On October 10, we wrote: "This one isn’t likely to lead to a quick ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as occurred in the past, because it is in fact a war between

Ed Yardeni

PPI Not As Hot As CPI

Apr 11, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's PPI report threw some cold water on yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI. Our opinion is that the Fed won't be lowering interest rates this year because the economy and labor market will remain strong. Yesterday's CPI confirmed our conclusion based on the wrong premise. We aren't expecting inflation to get stuck above the Fed's 2.0% target. We think

Ed Yardeni

The Last Mile

Apr 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the Fed start raising the federal funds rate again? We expect to be hearing this question more often following today's hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report. The previous two reports for January and February were also hotter-than-expected. We don't think that the Fed will raise rates again this year, but we've pushed back against the widely-held notion of several cuts this year and argued that

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/11/24

Apr 10, 2024 1 min read paid

There was no recession last year, but the widespread expectation of one depressed certain economic activities, like hiring. With that depressant now lifted, several labor market indicators shot to record highs in March. … Consumer spending has been strong, especially by Baby Boomers and especially on services, keeping demand for service workers robust. Strong employment and wage growth in turn have boosted consumer spending. … Real average hourly earnings has resumed its

Ed Yardeni

Will Depressed Small Business Owners Depress The Economy?

Apr 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Stocks marked time today, while bonds rallied after the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its March survey of small business owners this morning. It was a pessimistic report overall. The small business optimism index fell to the lowest reading since December 2012 (chart). Yet, the solid performance of the economy has been at odds with the mounting pessimism of small business owners since early 2022. The employment-related series

Ed Yardeni

Live Long And Prosper!

Apr 8, 2024 2 min read

American consumers are doing what they do best: They are consuming goods and services. Their consumption of services has been especially strong. So the demand for workers by several major services industries has been particularly strong. In turn, robust employment gains have boosted consumers’ purchasing power and spending. We have attributed some of these developments to the retiring Baby Boomer generation. This cohort is the richest generation of senior citizens

Ed Yardeni

Max On The Market

Apr 7, 2024 1 min read

Max is getting ready for the eclipse on Monday. He regularly appears in Dr Ed's weekly webcasts on Mondays for our institutional accounts. Max has correctly predicted the direction of the stock market over the past two weeks. Replays of our Monday webcasts are available on Wednesdays here at https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ View All QuickTakesView Our Live Charts💡Join the discussion with Dr. Ed below! Paid members

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 8 - 12

Apr 7, 2024 2 min read

This week will feature some key inflation numbers. The March headline CPI (Wed) and PPI (Mar) will get a boost from higher gasoline prices. Their core inflation rates should continue to moderate. The week starts with the FRBNY survey of inflation expectations (Mon). The pump price of gasoline jumped last month and probably boosted inflation expectations (chart): The gasoline component of the March CPI will also reflect the jump in

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Amazing Flying Machine

Apr 6, 2024 6 min read paid

GDP I: Still Flying. Not Landing. It’s official: There was no recession in 2022 or 2023. There was no hard landing in either year. There was a soft landing of sorts in 2022, but the economy was flying high last year and remains on that flight path in 2024. Consumers continued to increase their spending through the end of last year, upending forecasts (not ours) that the dwindling of

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks

Apr 4, 2024 2 min read paid

We are in the same camp as Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. On March 6, he said, "If we have a run rate that's very attractive, people have jobs, businesses are doing well, inflation is coming back down, why do anything?" We wrote an op-ed in the March 25 Financial Times titled, "The Fed should resist messing with success." We asked:

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 4/4/24

Apr 4, 2024 1 min read paid

The US economy is flying high and should continue to do so. It has defied the past two years’ widespread expectations that it would land hard or fall into recession. In fact, last year’s real GDP growth of 3.1% matched the 48-year average. Fiscal stimulus has helped, but the major engine has been robust consumer spending as Baby Boomers spend their wealth. With consumption per household near its

Ed Yardeni

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