Ed Yardeni

Inventories Depress GDP

Apr 27, 2023 1 min read

Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers pivoted from buying goods to purchasing services. Goods producers and providers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting their orders to their suppliers and by lowering their prices to move their excess merchandise out the front door. So, excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/24/23

Apr 26, 2023 1 min read paid

Banks were tightening lending standards before the banking crisis, and the crisis has escalated that. We don’t think a credit crunch will ensue, though we’re monitoring the situation closely. But we agree with Treasury Secretary Yellen that banks’ tightening of credit conditions effectively can substitute for further Fed tightening. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will

Ed Yardeni

Foul Moods

Apr 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% today mostly because First Republic's earnings report reminded investors that the banking crisis may not be over yet. That put them in a foul mood all day. Consumers are also in a foul mood: The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 in April, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. Consumers&

Ed Yardeni

An Upbeat Earnings Indicator

Apr 24, 2023 1 min read paid

Why has the stock market been holding up so well so far this year despite lots of pessimism about an impending recession? One possible explanation is that industry analysts are turning more optimistic on the earnings prospects of the companies they follow. We have been tracking the percent of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in analysts' consensus forward earnings (chart). (FYI: “Forward” earnings is

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 23, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 has been remarkably quiet over the past couple of weeks just below its February 2 high and above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). The earnings season started well with better-than-expected results from the major banks. Investors may be marking time waiting to see if Fed officials will proceed with the widely expected 25bps hike in the federal funds rate at the May 2-3 meeting

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 24-28

Apr 23, 2023 1 min read paid

This week is jampacked with economic indicators and earnings reports. The BIGGEST numbers will come out on Friday for the PCED and ECI inflation rates. Both should show that inflation remains high but is continuing to moderate. The ECI wage inflation rate was 5.1% during Q4. We know that AHE fell to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). Q1's preliminary real GDP (Thu) is tracking at

Ed Yardeni

Fed 's H.4.1 Shows Banking Crisis Not Getting Worse

Apr 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed's H.4.1 report is released every Thursday at 4:15 pm. It shows the Fed's assets and liabilities. Yesterday's report shows that the Fed's total assets edged down to $8.7 trillion after rising since early March when banks scrambled to borrow from the Fed's liquidity facilities to offset deposit outflows during the SVB-induced banking crisis (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder

Apr 20, 2023 3 min read

The S&P 500 has been holding up quite well as the the nattering nabobs of negativism beat their drums more loudly. Today's batch of economic indicators gave the bears plenty to growl about. Consider the following: (1) LEI. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) peaked at a record high during February 2022 (chart). It's been falling since then. It was down during March

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Apr 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) climbed for the fourth week to 2.11 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year, just when the previous bull market ended (chart). Early last October, when the bull market bottomed, the BBR was well below 1.00 at readings similar to those at the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. In late October, we concluded

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/17/23

Apr 19, 2023 1 min read paid

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s ambiguous warnings about the economy broadly and banks specifically, voiced intermittently since last summer, have probably led many an investor astray. JPM stock has soared 34% since October, and the S&P 500 has leapt 7% in the month or so since SVB imploded, with every sector participating. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 18, 2023 2 min read

We remain convinced that the S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 is up 16.2% since then (table below). Every sector of the S&P 500 is up since then. Even the Financials sector is up 10.3% despite the recent banking crisis. We are still expecting to see the S&P 500 rise to 4600 by the end of

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 17-21

Apr 16, 2023 2 min read paid

This is a light week for economic indicators, but there will be plenty of earnings calls to keep investors busy. We will be focusing on the two regional business surveys for April released by the FRBNY (Mon) and the Philly Fed (Thu). Together, they tend to foretell the outcome of the three other regional business surveys released later this month as well as the national M-PMI (out early next month)

Ed Yardeni

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Inventories Depress GDP

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/24/23

Foul Moods

An Upbeat Earnings Indicator

Market Call

The Economic Week Ahead: April 24-28

Fed 's H.4.1 Shows Banking Crisis Not Getting Worse

Recession Drumbeat Getting Louder

Stock Market Sentiment Most Bullish Since Start of Last Year's Bear Market

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/17/23

Market Call

The Economic Week Ahead: April 17-21