Ed Yardeni

Banking Crisis May Be Abating

Apr 15, 2023 2 min read paid

We've previously observed that any day without a banking crisis is a good day for stocks. SVB imploded on Friday, March 10. On Sunday, March 12, the Fed and FDIC took actions to avoid additional bank runs. The S&P 500 is up 7.1% since March 10 led by Information Technology (9.8%), Health Care (8.6), and Utilities (7.6%) (chart). All of the sectors

Ed Yardeni

Is That Inflation In The Rearview Mirror?

Apr 13, 2023 2 min read

Could it be that the spike in inflation over the past two years was one of the many shockwaves caused by the pandemic? Is inflation turning out to be relatively transitory after all? Goods inflation is certainly looking transitory (chart). Services inflation has been much more persistent, but is likely to moderate during the second half of this year along with rent inflation. Wage inflation may remain troublesome, but less

Ed Yardeni

Inflation, the Fed & Too Much Happiness

Apr 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell slightly today despite the better-than-expected March CPI data this morning. Inflation continues to moderate. The headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.0% y/y in February to 5.0% in March. However, the core rate edged up from 5.5% to 5.6%, but slowing rent inflation is likely to cool this rate in coming months. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/10/23

Apr 12, 2023 1 min read paid

The tug-of-war between the hard-landers and the soft-landers continues. The twists and turns of recent economic-outlook-impacting events have been taking investors for a ride, but our stance remains steadfastly fixed on one outcome: a soft landing of the broad economy with mini recessions continuing to roll through various sectors. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to

Ed Yardeni

CPI Inflation Close to Zero...In China

Apr 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The March CPI report is likely to show that inflation remains high in the US, but is continuing to moderate. In February, the headline and core CPI inflation rates were 6.0% and 5.5% on a y/y basis. Stock and bond prices should rally if the March numbers are lower by around 50bps. They would probably sink if the results are around 50bps higher. We are expecting the

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Apr 10, 2023 2 min read

The tug of war between the bulls and the bears has been at a standstill recently with the S&P 500 holding above both its 50-dma and 200-dma (chart). That's quite impressive considering the banking crisis that started on March 10 when SVB imploded. Some observers (including us) think that the Fed Put is back. This time the Fed is shoring up the banking system with a

Ed Yardeni

Rollercoaster Ride in the Bond Market

Apr 10, 2023 2 min read paid

At the start of this year, the widespread economic consensus was that a hard landing is coming. The consensus changed dramatically during February, when January’s stronger-than-expected economic indicators suggested that a no-landing scenario was more likely. Last week’s batch of economic indicators revived concerns about a hard landing. We watched this rollercoaster ride with our feet firmly planted on the ground. The outlook still looks like a soft

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 10-14

Apr 9, 2023 1 min read paid

The banking crisis is bound to keep investors on edge. This week, the big banks will report their earnings. Last week, in his annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders, Jamie Dimon wrote "the crisis is not yet over." The other executives at the major banks are likely to say the same during their earnings conference calls later this week. The magnitude of their concern will be revealed by

Ed Yardeni

On the Lookout for a Bank Credit Crunch

Apr 9, 2023 3 min read

The Silicon Valley Bank imploded on Friday, March 10. To avert a widespread bank run, the Fed announced, on Sunday, March 12, that liquidity would be provided by the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The Fed's press release stated that this new liquidity facility will offer loans of up to one year in length to financial intermediaries pledging US Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying

Ed Yardeni

Sentimental Journey: Mixed Feelings

Apr 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed for the second week to 1.94 this week—the highest reading since the January 4 week last year—after falling the prior two weeks from 1.83 to 1.38 (chart). Bullish sentiment increased for the second week, jumping to 48.6% this week, equaling the end-of-January peak, which was the highest since the end of 2021. Bulls outnumbered bears for the 20th consecutive week.

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Rally 'Don't Get No Respect'

Apr 5, 2023 1 min read

The comedian Rodney Dangerfield often lamented during his hilarious monologues , "I don't get no respect." That applies to the stock market rally since October 12. The naysayers are saying that it is a bear market rally and that the S&P 500 will soon be falling below its October 12 low. They also claim that only the MegaCap-8 stocks have participated in the rally, while

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/3/23

Apr 5, 2023 1 min read paid

The S&L crisis of 1990 caused a mild, short-lived recession impacting earnings but not triggering a bear market in stocks. Conversely, we had a bear market last year but no recession (yet?). Similarly, though, the commercial real estate market was hit hard during 1990’s banking crisis and stands now in the eye of the SVB storm, since small banks—the most vulnerable—make most CRE loans. Below

Ed Yardeni

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