Ed Yardeni

Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

Aug 7, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a search for a permanent replacement. The Senate will probably confirm his nomination quickly and before the September meeting of the FOMC. If so, then there could be at least

Ed Yardeni

Still Banking On A Resilient US Economy

Aug 6, 2025 3 min read paid

It's a light day for economic news. Stock prices are drifting higher today because the Q2 earnings reporting season is going well, with very few exceptions. Notwithstanding the weakness of the latest employment report and the two surveys of purchasing managers, in manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, stock investors are still betting on the resilience of the economy since it is continuing to deliver solid earnings. We are betting

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Relax, Folks: Jobs Report Was OK

Aug 6, 2025 1 min read paid

Yes, payroll employment rose less than expected in July, and, yes, revisions pegged it lower than initially thought during May and June. That doesn’t mean demand for labor has slacked off, as the extreme reactions of the financial markets suggested. The payroll weakness says more about the supply of labor than demand for it. Indeed, the two are in balance, which Fed Chief Powell even said last week. Other

Ed Yardeni

July's Purchasing Managers Surveys Are Mixed

Aug 5, 2025 2 min read

The stock and bond markets didn't respond much to the national survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers this morning, even though it was on the weak side (chart). The overall NM-PMI, which the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) compiles, edged down to 50.1, just above the expansion/contraction line at 50.0. The production component was solid at 52.6. But the employment component fell to 46.4.

Ed Yardeni

To 'V' Or Not To 'V'? That Is The Question!

Aug 4, 2025 4 min read paid

In our April 7 Morning Briefing, we anticipated the bottom in this year's S&P 500 correction and a V-shaped rebound. The bottom occurred the very next day. The V-shaped recovery started the following day on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Wednesday, April 2, Liberation Day tariffs. We wrote: "Trump's Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday,

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 4-8

Aug 3, 2025 3 min read

Compared to last week’s dramatic data surprises, this week’s offerings are decidedly of the slim-pickings variety. But boring, the days ahead will not be. While we’re still of the thinking that President Donald Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair’s fate could be written between the lines of any data series that undershoots expectations. Following Friday’s weaker-than-expected July employment report, Trump wasted

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Freaky Friday

Aug 3, 2025 4 min read

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On

Ed Yardeni

Tomorrow is August 1

Jul 31, 2025 2 min read paid

The April 2 Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were postponed on April 9 to July 9 and again to August 1. The S&P 500's latest correction bottomed on April 8. The rebound to new record highs has been extraordinary. Today's selloff on mostly good news suggests that investors and traders might be starting to take profits before going on their August vacations. They might also

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On The Roaring 2020s

Jul 30, 2025 1 min read paid

With special guest Jim Lucier of Capital Alpha Partners Halfway through the decade, our Roaring 2020s investment theme remains on track. The US economy continues to prove remarkably resilient, supported by the robust spending of businesses and consumers, especially Baby Boomers. So far this year, it has been acing the stress tests of Trump’s trade policies. If the final years of the decade pan out as expected, Dr Ed

Ed Yardeni

Let The Games Begin!

Jul 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Tomorrow will be action-packed. Wednesday morning, the US Treasury will issue its Quarterly Refunding Statement detailing how it intends to finance $1.0 trillion in marketable securities during Q3. The question is whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will rely more on doing so in the Treasury bill market, as recently suggested by President Donald Trump. Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC will issue a press release at 2:00 p.m., most

Ed Yardeni

Wednesday Is Not Just Fed Day But Also Treasury’s Refunding Day

Jul 28, 2025 3 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision. Odds are that it will be a non-event, i.e., the federal funds rate will remain unchanged (chart). The only drama will be whether the FOMC sticks to the current party line: "We are in no rush to lower interest rates." Or, will it signal a dovish pivot? If Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle

Ed Yardeni

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