Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 12, 2023 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 dropped 3.3% on Thursday and Friday, led by money center and regional bank stocks as a result of the SVB debacle. The index fell through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages to close at 3861.59, just 0.6% above its 2022 close (chart). January’s big gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 mostly evaporated during February and

Ed Yardeni

Disintermediation: New Problem For The Fed

Mar 10, 2023 2 min read

Yesterday's sell-off in the stock market was led by bank stocks. It was mostly triggered by fears that SVB may be the start of a financial crisis that leads to an economy-wide credit crunch and recession. As it has done often in the past, the inverted yield curve has been signaling since last summer that something could break in the financial system if the Fed continues to tighten

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Earnings Season's Greetings

Mar 9, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q4-2022 earnings season is over. Joe reports that S&P 500 earnings data are out for the quarter. We weren’t surprised by the top-line or bottom-line numbers. That’s because we follow the weekly data series on forward revenues, forward earnings, and the forward profit margin. They continue to steer us in the right direction for assessing the near-term outlook for the comparable quarterly data (Fig. 1)

Ed Yardeni

Jamie's Hurricane

Mar 9, 2023 2 min read

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has been warning that a recession is coming. Today, ironically, the bank stocks took it on the chin sending the overall stock market lower because the economy is widely deemed to be too strong, and a solid gain is expected in February's payroll employment tomorrow. Furthermore, fears that next Tuesday's CPI report for February might be higher than expected raised concerns

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/6/23

Mar 8, 2023 1 min read

Productivity was poor last year—declining more than it has since 1974—and growth in unit labor costs was high. But the final quarter of 2022 saw significant improvements in both, and we think the worst is over for both. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. If productivity continues

Ed Yardeni

Thus Spake The Fed Chair

Mar 7, 2023 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is the high priest of monetary policy. His pontifications are carefully read and analyzed by his followers. We are among his followers because we are Fed watchers. Indeed, we often count how many times certain words appear in his public remarks. The word “disinflation” was uttered 11 times at Powell’s press conference on February 1. He was the only one who mentioned the word at

Ed Yardeni

The Fed Chair Testifies Before Congress

Mar 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Tomorrow (Mar. 7) and the day after (Mar. 8), Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify in hearings before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services panel respectively, to discuss the bank’s latest semiannual Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The report was released on Friday. It reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bring inflation back down to 2% by 2025, according to the FOMC's December Summary of

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 may continue to mark time until the data more convincingly support either the bull or the bear case. The index bounced off its 200-day moving average (dma) and closed above its 50-dma on Friday (chart). If the batch of economic indicators over the next two weeks is as strong as was January's comparable batch, the market will go down on fears that an

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, March 5-10

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report to two congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. He is likely to say that although there are signs of disinflation, inflation remains too high and the Fed still has lots of work to do to bring it down. Powell's favorite labor market indicator, i.e., job openings, will be out on Wednesday for

Ed Yardeni

Tale Of Two Surveys Of Purchasing Managers

Mar 3, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's NM-PMI for February was happier than the month's M-PMI released on Wednesday. On balance, they confirm that consumers have pivoted away from buying goods to services, and that the rolling recession in the goods-providing industries continues to be offset by strength in services-providing ones. Let's start with the happy news that's contributed to this morning's stock market rally: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Q4 Productivity & Labor Costs Going Right Way

Mar 2, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond and stock prices opened weak this morning on good news from the labor market. Good news is bad news because the Fed is trying to slow the economy to bring down inflation. So good news increases the risk of higher-for-longer interest rates. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is back above 4.00%. At 4.95%, the 2-year Treasury yield reached levels not seen in more than a decade. The

Ed Yardeni

Fear Can Be Good For Stocks

Mar 1, 2023 1 min read

"Greed is good" is a catchphrase based on Gordon Gekko's quote "greed, for lack of a better word, is good" from the 1987 film Wall Street. That was the year that Fed Chair Alan Greenspan introduced the "Fed Put" as a way to stop panic selloffs in the stock market. For stock prices to go up, fear is sometimes better than greed.

Ed Yardeni

Page 97 of 134

Market Call

Disintermediation: New Problem For The Fed

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Earnings Season's Greetings

Jamie's Hurricane

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/6/23

Thus Spake The Fed Chair

The Fed Chair Testifies Before Congress

Market Call

The Economic Week Ahead, March 5-10

Tale Of Two Surveys Of Purchasing Managers

Q4 Productivity & Labor Costs Going Right Way

Fear Can Be Good For Stocks