Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/8/23

Sep 8, 2023 1 min read paid

What would it take for the Fed to abandon its hawkish stance? Three things, suggested Fed Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech: core PCED inflation dropping closer to 2% y/y, demand for labor dropping closer to the supply of it, and consumer spending cooling off a bit. All that can happen without a recession, as it has twice before in recent history, and the latest data on all

Ed Yardeni

Stormy September So Far

Sep 7, 2023 1 min read paid

Good news is bad news again. The stock and bond markets sold off yesterday following better-than-expected readings for August's NM-PMI. In addition, the prices-paid indexes for both the NM-PMI and M-PMI increased in August heightening fears that inflation may have stopped moderating (chart). We disagree since both remain well below last summer's peaks. Today, Q2's revised productivity and

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/6/23

Sep 6, 2023 1 min read paid

Is the surprising Q3 strength in the economy sustainable? Clues in the latest data releases suggest not, and our forecast calls for a renewed soft landing. A stronger-for-longer economy wouldn’t jibe with the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest-rate stance. ... But the economic outlook hinges much on what consumers do next. We don’t see them slamming on the spending brakes, as the hard-landers predict

Ed Yardeni

What Could Go Wrong In September?

Sep 5, 2023 3 min read paid

On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. It is widely viewed as a rotten month for stocks, which has been true during 55% of Septembers since 1928. But those selloffs have often turned out to be good opportunities to pick fallen stocks just in time for a yearend Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 fell today back towards its 50-day moving

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Isn't Always A Bad Month For Stocks

Sep 3, 2023 2 min read

September is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 12 months; it gets no respect because it has been the worst month for stocks on average since 1928 (chart). However, it has been up 45% of the time since then with a solid average gain of 3.2%. Even if the market is down this month, September is a good month for picking apples and it could be a good month for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 5-8

Sep 2, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a short week ahead and a light one for economic releases. We expect that the financial markets will start to focus on the following week when both the CPI and the federal deficit will be released for August on Wednesday, September 13. One week after that happens, the FOMC will decide whether to hike the federal funds rate or not. We think the Fed is done. We

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Forward Earnings Remains On Recovery Road

Aug 31, 2023 4 min read paid

The stock market rallied from Friday through Wednesday despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The rally received a bullish jolt from July’s JOLTS report on Tuesday morning showing both fewer job openings and fewer quits than expected during the month. These are bullish developments, as we discuss further below, because they suggest that the labor market is “rebalancing,” with demand for labor

Ed Yardeni

PCED Inflation Rate Still On Moderating Course

Aug 31, 2023 2 min read paid

Both the headline and core PCED inflation rates rose 0.2% m/m in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell anticipated that they would be moderate as they were in June in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday of last week. However, he said that two consecutive months of such moderation aren't enough. He wants to see inflation drop closer to the Fed's 2.0% target on

Ed Yardeni

Bull/Bear Ratios Tank, So Stocks Move Higher

Aug 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is up 3.2% since last Thursday's close even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was hawkish. Three sectors have outperformed the S&P 500, namely, Information Technology (4.7%), Consumer Discretionary (4.2%), and Communication Services (4.1%). These are the ones that are home to the MegaCap-8, which were boosted by the drop

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 8/30/23

Aug 30, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, we examine Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The tone was more hawkish than we expected, with Powell saying that the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to raise interest rates further if needed to bring inflation back down to the Fed’s 2.0% target but failing to say what it would take for the Fed to lower interest rates given that inflation has been moderating.

Ed Yardeni

Hooray! Job Openings & Quits Fall

Aug 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rallied on Friday, Monday, and today despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The S&P 500 rose back above its 50-day moving average (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.12% today. The rallies in both stocks and bonds received a bullish jolt from June’s JOLTS report today showing fewer job openings and quits

Ed Yardeni

The Bond Market's Lines In The Sand

Aug 28, 2023 1 min read paid

Today, the stock market performed better because the bond market performed better. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained below 4.25%, which was last year's peak (chart). A few days ago it rose slightly above that rate but didn't follow through to the upside. The same can be said for the 10-year TIPS yield, which backed off from 2.00%. Breakouts above these

Ed Yardeni

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