Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)

May 24, 2026 5 min read paid

The stock market has had an exuberant stretch since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 30. The index is up 17.8% since then through Friday, after hitting a record high on May 14. The DJIA rose to a record high this past Friday. The bears say the exuberance is irrational, driven by lots of excitement about AI. We say it is rational, based on our Buzz Lightyear

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 25-29

May 24, 2026 3 min read

The US financial markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the holiday-shortened week is light on economic data releases. On Thursday, the second estimate of Q1-2026 GDP will be reported alongside April's core PCED, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Eight Fed officials speak over the week. With little fresh data to help investors gauge whether the FOMC is turning more hawkish, they’

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Time for A Break Or a Brake?

May 17, 2026 5 min read paid

The S&P 500 sold off by 1.2% on Friday after hitting a record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. We are sticking with our 8250 year-end target for the S&P 500 (chart). However, the index might have peaked for a while. That's because bond yields spiked on Friday, which just happened to be Kevin Warsh's first day at the office

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 18-22

May 17, 2026 4 min read

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% from its record high of 7501.24 on Thursday. A run of hot inflation data and a spike in bond yields did the damage on Friday. April headline CPI hit 3.8% y/y, the highest since May 2023, while core CPI was 2.8%. The big shocker was last Wednesday's April PPI for final demand, which rose

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

COMMUNICATION SERVICES: Highly Concentrated With GOOGLE & META

May 16, 2026 3 min read

We continue to recommend a market-weight position in S&P 500 Communication Services, alongside our market-weight call on Information Technology, which we reiterated on April 25. The sector is a lopsided barbell. Alphabet and Meta together are the only two components of the sector's Interactive Media Services industry. Together, they account for almost 80% of the industry's market capitalization and 69% of its

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup

May 10, 2026 5 min read paid

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market. Our 2026

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

INDUSTRIES: Mag-7 Isn't The Only AI Game In Town

May 9, 2026 4 min read

Since ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022, the AI trade has been mostly focused on the Magnificent-7, especially the big cloud companies, i.e., the "hyperscalers” (chart). For a while, they were all viewed as AI dominators until DeepSeek was released by a Chinese software company in late January 2025. Increasing confidence that US Large Language Models (LLMs) would remain competitive revived the Mag-7's

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Up, Up & Away

May 3, 2026 5 min read

The stock market balloon is climbing higher, and the burners are firing. It isn't all hot air that is lifting stock prices. It's also earnings revisions, which are increasing for 2026 and 2027. Growth stocks and the Magnificent-7 have reasserted leadership over the past month. Small caps and the Russell 2000 are at fresh record highs too. Investor sentiment remains surprisingly lackluster, leaving plenty of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

MARKET CALL: Devil-May-Care

Apr 26, 2026 4 min read paid

In the autumn of 1956, Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. Britain, France, and Israel invaded. The canal closed for five months. Two-thirds of Western Europe's oil moved through it, and the price of crude doubled in dollar terms before the year was out. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 10% from its July high to its October low. Tankers were forced

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 27-May 1

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Wednesday brings the advance Q1-2025 GDP report, and Thursday the March PCED, which will show how much of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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