We’re raising the subjective odds we assign to the no-landing economic scenario through year-end 2024 (by 10% to 85%) and lowering our odds of a hard landing (by 10% to 15%). But we’re keeping close tabs on hard-landers’ latest arguments. Today, we summarize the main ones and give our rebuttals. … The biggest issue dividing the two camps is the outlook for consumer spending, representing over two-thirds of nominal GDP. If consumers don’t pull back on spending once their pandemic-related savings run out, an economy-wide recession would be a stretch. We say they won’t retrench, having other sources of purchasing power.
Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date.