President Donald Trump said today that he had a "very good talk" with China's President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond, currency, and commodity traders have become jaded about Trump's tumultuous trade dealmaking. Even rising concerns about a shortage of Chinese rare earth minerals (needed by lots of US manufacturers) haven't fazed the stock market so far.
Investors seem to be more focused on whether the US economy is slowing or not. On Tuesday, April's JOLTS report suggested that the labor market is just fine. On Wednesday, May's ADP employment report was very weak. Today's Challenger layoffs report showed a decline in May from the previous month, while initial unemployment claims edged up, but remained low.
Tomorrow's payroll employment report for May isn't likely to resolve the debate about the labor market, though we anticipate that it will be better than expected, exceeding 100,000. Stock and bond prices would likely stay firm if so. If the report is weaker than expected, both would probably rally on expectations of sooner-rather-than-later Fed rate cuts. Either good or bad news tomorrow should bolster stock prices, in our opinion.
Let's review today's data:
