Employment

Geopolitical Release Valve Taking Pressure Off Resilient Economy

Jun 19, 2026 4 min read

The US-Iran interim peace deal is shaky; but if it holds, it will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Now comes a 60-day negotiating period to hammer out a permanent agreement, centered on restricting Iran's nuclear program. The price of Brent crude oil extended its sharp decline following the peace deal announcement, with markets pricing in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate

Jun 17, 2026 5 min read

During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above the "neutral" FFR. Under the Fed's dual mandate, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets

Jun 10, 2026 4 min read paid

The latest batch of inflation and employment indicators suggests that the FOMC might adopt a neutral policy stance at next week's meeting rather than a tightening one as we have been expecting. That seemed to be the initial reaction in the US Treasury market, as 2- and 10-year yields edged lower on today's cooler-than-expected core CPI inflation news. We are sticking with our

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 11-15

May 10, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, another record high. The index is 9.2% above its 200-day moving average. Earnings have done the heavy lifting so far this year. The Q1-2026 earnings reporting season is winding down, with companies representing 1% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week and another 12% the following week. Industry analysts’ consensus Q1-

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 27-May 1

Apr 25, 2026 4 min read

This is one of the busiest weeks of the year on the economic calendar. Five major central banks meet: the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. Five mega-cap tech names report earnings: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple. Wednesday brings the advance Q1-2025 GDP report, and Thursday the March PCED, which will show how much of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs

Apr 6, 2026 4 min read paid

Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stocks: Was That The Bottom On Monday?

Apr 2, 2026 4 min read

On Tuesday night, we suggested that the S&P 500 might have bottomed on Monday, with a pullback of 9.1% (i.e., just under a 10% correction) from its January 27 record high. Tuesday's strong equity rally was triggered by reports that the US had found an exit ramp from its war with Iran. Wednesday night, President Donald Trump confirmed that the US would exit in

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

Mar 29, 2026 4 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the

Toby Hearst
Ed Yardeni

Dire Strait Versus Home On The Range

Mar 4, 2026 4 min read

Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors believe Iran has lost the war and

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 2 - 6

Mar 1, 2026 3 min read

Nothing upends the economic game board like a sudden war few had in their bingo cards a week ago. Granted, the coordinated US-Israel attack on Iran over the weekend wasn’t a complete surprise. But the scale of the bombardment that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was impressive. Tehran’s wave of retaliatory missile and drone attacks aimed at US bases and allies around the region, and threats

Ed Yardeni

Is AI Frankenstein?

Feb 23, 2026 3 min read paid

The people who've created large language models (LLMs) to power artificial intelligence (AI) are now using them to code better LLMs. If LLMs are now so good at coding that they can create their own better versions, who needs coders anymore? Are the only jobs left in the software industry the ones for LLM prompters? In 5-10 short prompts, they have to tell the LLM what new

Ed Yardeni

4724: The Year Of The Fire Horse

Feb 19, 2026 4 min read

Happy Lunar New Year! Last year was the Year of the Wood Snake, according to the Chinese Zodiac. In Chinese culture, the Snake is often seen as a symbol of wisdom, intuition, and transformation. The Horse is one of the most beloved zodiac signs. It is a powerful symbol of energy, freedom, and rapid success. Because the Horse is a social and high-spirited animal, its year is usually expected

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

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