Employment

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 30-July 4

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don't expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure out whether the ceasefire will hold or missiles will start flying again. Surprises could also come from Trump's trade negotiations. A bunch of deals are expected in

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 23 - 27

Jun 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Layered on top of a still-developing trade war, President Donald Trump's attack on Iran puts markets in decidedly uncharted territory. Much will depend on how Iran responds to the attack. Trump said in Saturday's White House address, if Iran doesn’t "make peace" then "future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." In addition, Trump's "Big Beautiful

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

He Said, Xi Said

Jun 5, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump said today that he had a "very good talk" with China's President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond, currency, and commodity traders have become jaded about Trump's tumultuous trade dealmaking. Even rising concerns about a shortage of Chinese rare earth minerals (needed by

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Bag

Jun 4, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell to 4.36% today on a batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators. Bond investors weren't fazed by Elon Musk's attack on President Trump's "big beautiful bill" on Tuesday afternoon. Musk thinks it’s ugly: "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination." Nor were they fazed by the fact that the

Ed Yardeni

Another Happy-Go-Lucky Day

Jun 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Signals

Jun 2, 2025 3 min read

So is the economy slowing or speeding up? Yes, it is doing both according to today's batch of economic indicators. No wonder that neither stocks nor bonds did much today. The calm in the stock market was notable given that President Donald Trump was Tariff Man again on Friday, blasting China for not abiding by the temporary and partial tariff truce with the US and doubling the tariff

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 2 - 6

Jun 1, 2025 3 min read

There's no question that President Donald Trump is stress testing the resilience of the economy with what we've been (objectively) calling Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The latest developments on Friday: Trump declared that China is violating terms agreed upon in its trade deal with the US, and he raised the tariff on aluminum and steel from 25% to 50%. Nevertheless, the resilience of the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 27 - 30

May 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is starting with another tariff whiplash. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners but postponed them for 90 days on April 9. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on the European Union, Apple Inc., and perhaps Samsung and other tech giants to be named later. But on Sunday, he postponed Friday's June 1 tariff of 50%

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

The Elephants In The Room

May 22, 2025 3 min read

The elephant is as good a metaphor as there is for the US government bond market. Its scale, power, memory, emotional intelligence, and tendency to live in complex family groups—just like the broad array of debt instruments—are right on the nose . . . er, trunk. Yet this week, we saw that the room in which the bond market operates has more than one elephant. The other large mammal in question

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 19–23

May 18, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead is light on economic indicators. Fed officials undoubtedly will make some headlines. They are likely to reiterate Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his May 7 presser: "We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Not Much Stagflation Today

May 15, 2025 4 min read

Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he and President Donald Trump were focusing on the 10-year Treasury bond yield as a key metric for economic health, rather than the Fed's short-term interest rate. He stated, "He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," indicating a strategy to manage borrowing costs through fiscal policy rather than pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

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