Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 14)

By The Shores Of Lake Geneva

May 12, 2025 3 min read

Here is how US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized his negotiations with Chinese trade officials this past weekend: "We had very productive talks and I believe that the venue, here in Lake Geneva, added great equanimity to what was a very positive process." The US and China on Monday agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days. Stock prices soared on this

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 12 - 16

May 11, 2025 4 min read

The coming week is jampacked with several April economic indicators and a couple of May regional business surveys. On balance, they should show that the soft data turned even softer mostly in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. The hard data are likely to be mixed, though consumer-related indicators should show resilience. The week's headline inflation indicators may be subdued by stable energy prices, while the core

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Let's Make A Deal

May 11, 2025 3 min read paid

Dealmaking is in the air. American and Chinese delegations met this past weekend to discuss how they might deescalate their trade war. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine on May 15 in the Turkish city of Istanbul that he said should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the war. A fragile ceasefire was holding between India and Pakistan

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Is The Recession Over Already?

May 9, 2025 8 min read

US Economy I: The Godot Recession Is Back. During 2022, 2023, and 2024, most economists and investment strategists expected that the dramatic tightening of monetary policy would cause a recession. They observed that the inverting yield curve and the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators were confirming this outlook. We argued that the recession was the most widely anticipated recession of all times that wasn’t likely to happen. We

Ed Yardeni

From Trade Wars To Trade Deals

May 8, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump will need to declare victories in his trade wars with multiple countries around the world sooner rather than later. He and his fellow Republicans have to avoid a recession caused by his tariff wars. Otherwise, they risk losing their thin majorities in both houses of Congress later in 2026. In addition, court cases are piling up that challenge the President’s legal authority to declare a crisis

Ed Yardeni

Stop The World—We Want To Get Off!

May 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 5/7/25

May 7, 2025 1 min read paid

Is The Recession Over Already? We believe in the resilience of the US economy. Recent years’ monetary tightening didn’t bring on a recession; this year’s tariff turmoil isn’t likely to either. We’re lowering the odds we see of a recession back to 35%, where it had been in early March. One reason is that China and the US appear ready to start negotiating a trade deal.

Ed Yardeni

FOMC Day Minus One: Waiting For Nothing

May 6, 2025 3 min read paid

The federal funds rate (FFR) futures market has consistently been predicting several cuts in the FFR since March 2023 (chart). The Fed did deliver three rate cuts totaling 100bps from September 18 through December 18, 2024. Since then, Fed officials have said that they are in no hurry to lower the FFR again. Nevertheless, the FFR futures market is currently anticipating two rate cuts over the next six months and

Ed Yardeni

A Seinfeld Kinda Day: Nothing Really Happened

May 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Not much happened today in either the stock market or the bond market. Dull days are good for a change. The markets are no longer responding to every comment coming out of the White House. On Sunday, President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell "a total stiff." But he also said that he will not remove the Fed Chair. Today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent observed, "The

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Anatomy Of A Correction

May 4, 2025 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, April 28, 2025. The latest correction in the S&P 500 was led by a short and shallow bear market in the Magnificent-7 stocks. Trump’s Tariff Turmoil clearly drove lots of the selling pressure. However, the stock market selloff this year was also attributable to the downward rerating of the elevated valuation multiples of S&P

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 5–9

May 4, 2025 3 min read

US employers are confounding the naysayers–and complicating the Federal Reserve's decision this week. It's no secret that President Donald Trump wants the Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates at its May 6-7 meeting. Yet the economy isn't cooperating, as companies added a robust 177,000 jobs in April (chart). US average hourly earnings, meanwhile, are up 3.8% over the past

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: ‘Mission Control, We Have Thrust’