Bond Market

TINAC & TICS Update

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read

June's Treasury International Capital System (TICS) was released on Monday. The TICS data tend to confirm our TINAC thesis, i.e., there is no alternative country: the US is a safe haven for global investors confronted with a very stormy global investment climate. Consider the following: (1) On a 12-month basis through June, the US had private net capital inflows of $1.5 trillion (chart below). It'

Ed Yardeni

Valuation-Led Rally Could Sputter This Week

Aug 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The bull runs in the bond market since June 14 and the stock market since June 16 could stall this week. Both markets have probably discounted that July's CPI report (on Wednesday) should be moderated by falling gasoline prices and durable goods prices, while rent inflation could be more troublesome. The markets may not have fully discounted the likelihood that July's strong employment report (reported this

Ed Yardeni

Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

Jul 31, 2022 1 min read

The wage-price-rent spiral continues to spiral. Yet, the Bond Vigilantes, who were very vigilant at the start of the year, seem to be taking a siesta now. The US Treasury bond yield peaked this year (so far) at 3.49% on June 14, falling to 2.67% on Friday. That’s surprising given that inflation remains so high. But we aren’t surprised. As we’ve pointed out before, the

Ed Yardeni

A Couple of Bullish Bond Market Indicators

Jun 21, 2022 2 min read

Is the bond yield heading higher or lower? It should be heading higher given that it remains well below the rate of inflation. That’s unless investors believe that inflation is more likely to move lower than higher over the next few years if not in the immediate future. In any event, two useful bond market indicators are currently bullish for bonds and offer some hope for stocks too: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Is the Worst Over For Bonds?

May 3, 2022 1 min read

We are keeping an eye on the Citibank Economic Surprise Index (ESI), which is highly correlated with the 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. The ESI measures the degree to which economic data are either beating or missing expectations.

Ed Yardeni

Page 6 of 6

TINAC & TICS Update

Valuation-Led Rally Could Sputter This Week

Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?

A Couple of Bullish Bond Market Indicators

Is the Worst Over For Bonds?