Breadth

Fed Pivot, Trump 2.0, SCOTUS Chevron Ruling & Earnings Broaden Stock Market Meltup

Jul 16, 2024 3 min read

We've been predicting a broadening stock market meltup in the event that the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) as inflation moderates while economic growth remains solid. Last week's CPI and today's retail sales report confirm that's what's happening in the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments yesterday sealed the deal: As of this morning,

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Is The Stock Market Hazardous?

Jun 30, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rose to another record high last week. It has been doing so in recent weeks led by fewer sectors and fewer stocks. The S&P 500 market-cap-weighted stock price index has significantly outperformed the equal-weighted index in recent weeks (chart). Many technicians warn that this could be a bearish sign in the short-run if the leaders experience a correction. An alternative scenario

Ed Yardeni

Broadening Bull

Mar 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index is up 43.2% since the current bull market started on October 12, 2022 (chart). The equal-weighted version of the index is up 29.5% since it bottomed on September 30, 2022. This confirms our view that the bull market has been a broad one all along. The equal-weighted index has certainly been in a bull market, it

Ed Yardeni

Not-So-Narrow Bull Market

Feb 8, 2024 1 min read

Have the S&P 500’s eight largest-capitalization stocks, the so-called MegaCap-8, been eating all the jellybeans, starving the other 492 in the S&P 500 LargeCap index during the current bull market? No. While the eight heavyweights have been on a sugar high in this bull market, they’ve left plenty of sweets for the rest of the stock market. Since October 12, 2022,

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Charging Into 2024

Dec 25, 2023 2 min read paid

Merry, happy, joyful, and jolly are just some of the adjectives used to describe this time of year. We hope your holiday season has been merry, happy, joyful and jolly so far. It sure has been for stock investors. The fun started more than a year ago on October 12, 2022 when the bear market bottomed. It has been a powerful bull market since then. Consider the following: (1) Here

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Investors Broadening Their Horizon

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

The current bull market started during October of last year. Since then, the bears have been warning that it was a rally in a bear market. That's because most of them expected a recession, and many of them still do. In addition, they've observed that the rally has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. The rest of the stock market seemed to be comatose. Our

Ed Yardeni

Better Bull Breadth?

Dec 4, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest bull market started on October 12, 2022. Its detractors have been saying that it may not be the real thing. They've observed that it has been narrowly led by the MegaCap-8. That's true. The bearish naysayers have concluded that the bull market therefore isn't sustainable. We disagree. Our alternative outlook is that the bull market should broaden, which may be starting

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Spotting Reindeers

Nov 5, 2023 2 min read paid

Last week was a wild one for sure in the bond and stock markets. The bond yield plunged and stock prices soared led by SMidCaps and interest-rate sensitive sectors and industries. Fears that the bond yield might continue to surge above 5.00% evaporated in response to weaker-than-expected employment indicators and a broadening consensus that the Fed is done raising the federal funds rate. The bond yield

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bullish Channel

Jul 9, 2023 2 min read paid

The current bull market started on October 12 when the S&P 500 bottomed at 3577.03 (chart). It rose 24.6% reaching a high of 4455.59 on July 3. So far it is down only 1.3% through Friday's close. It seems to have found resistance at the upper end of the bull market's channel. If so, then it might fall back down

Jackie Doherty

Market Call: Still Climbing the Wall of Worry

May 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The latest bull market, which started on October 12, when the previous bear market ended, may be on course to be among the most hated bull markets in history. That's because it started with historically high P/Es. In the past, valuations offered compelling opportunities at the end of bear markets. Most despicable is that the bull has the chutzpah to charge ahead when almost everyone agrees a

Ed Yardeni

Breadth Is Looking Up

Feb 7, 2023 1 min read paid

First the bad news: Industry analysts are continuing to cut their earnings estimates for this year and next year (chart). Nevertheless, as of the February 2 week, the analysts collectively still were projecting an increase this year of 2.3% to $224.31 and an increase of 11.2% next year to $249.52. Those estimates are consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown in earnings this year and better growth

Ed Yardeni

Copper, Mortgages, GDP, Breadth & Sentiment

Jan 11, 2023 2 min read

Yesterday, the World Bank slashed its 2023 global economic growth rate outlook to 1.7% from its earlier projection of 3.0%. In its Global Economic Prospects, the bank warned that the global economy is "perilously close to falling into recession." Dr. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics, begs to differ. The nearby futures price of the basic metal is up to $4.17 currently from

Ed Yardeni

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