Breadth

MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup

May 10, 2026 5 min read paid

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market. Our 2026 and 2027

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: So Far, So Good For Our Rebalancing Call

Jan 18, 2026 5 min read

Last year, in the December 7 QT, we wrote: "It no longer makes much sense for us to continue recommending overweighting the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors in an S&P 500 portfolio .... The same can be said about overweighting the United States in the All Country World MSCI portfolio." It was time to rebalance, in our opinion, because the two sectors accounted for a remarkable

Ed Yardeni

It's Been A Long Year Already

Jan 13, 2026 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Uncertainty & Breadth

Jul 9, 2025 3 min read paid

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times. Most of

Ed Yardeni

Will SMidCaps Continue To Underperform?

Jan 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Today was another good day for technology stocks, semiconductor stocks, and the Magnificent-7. In the S&P 500, they were up 1.44%, 3.28%, and 2.01%. We continue to recommend overweighting the LargeCap S&P 500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. We aren't as keen on the MidCap S&P 400 or the SmallCap S&P 600 (collectively the “SMidCaps”), or

Ed Yardeni

Some Air Coming Out Of Post-Election Balloon

Dec 30, 2024 3 min read paid

The post-election rally has been losing steam since early December (chart). The S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6. From a sentiment perspective, there have been too many bulls. From a technical perspective, breadth has been narrowing again as a few LargeCap momentum stocks continue to outperform. From a fundamental perspective, while earnings growth should remain bullish, the Fed may be done easing monetary policy

Ed Yardeni

Contrarian Curses & Tricky Cross Currents Since September 18

Nov 4, 2024 3 min read paid

Investors often rejoice when a stock they own is selected to join a major market index. Index funds collectively have trillions of dollars in AUM and must buy the stock in bulk, giving a boost to its price. But sometimes these bestowed honors can be a curse for the newbie. Super Micro Computer, for instance, joined the S&P 500 on March 18. It had peaked at a record

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Happy Second Birthday To The Young Bull!

Oct 13, 2024 2 min read

The S&P 500's latest bull market turned two-years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those fears lingered through October 4 of this year, when a stronger-than-expected employment report once again confirmed that the young bull correctly discounted that inflation would fall while

Ed Yardeni

Break Out The Bubbly: Lots Of New Record Highs

Oct 9, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher." We wrote the same at the start of October.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Burning Or Churning?

Jul 28, 2024 3 min read

Geopolitical risk increased on Saturday after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed 12 people in Israel's Golan Heights. Israel retaliated with a strike on Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure on Sunday. This is all stoking fear of a wider war in the Middle East. So far, the region's turmoil since October 7, 2023 (when Hamas terrorists attacked and massacred Israelis) hasn't weighed on the

Ed Yardeni

Is The Bull Market Broadening Or Rotating?

Jul 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Many investors are wondering if the recent outperformance of the S&P 400 and the S&P 600 (i.e., the "SMidCaps") and the equal-weighted S&P 500 reflect a sustainable broadening of the bull market. Or is it a temporary rotation out of the Magnificent-7 into the S&P 493 and the SMidCaps? For now, we're in the camp that breadth

Ed Yardeni

Fed Pivot, Trump 2.0, SCOTUS Chevron Ruling & Earnings Broaden Stock Market Meltup

Jul 16, 2024 3 min read

We've been predicting a broadening stock market meltup in the event that the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) as inflation moderates while economic growth remains solid. Last week's CPI and today's retail sales report confirm that's what's happening in the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments yesterday sealed the deal: As of this morning,

Ed Yardeni

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