Consumer Confidence

Relief Rally Ends Correction Risk

Mar 31, 2026 3 min read paid

Today's powerful relief rally in the stock market was fueled by news that President Donald Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran, according to an article in this morning's Wall Street Journal. Around noon, the market moved higher still on a report that the President of Iran said his country is ready to end the war if the US agrees to its 5-point

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

Mar 29, 2026 4 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the

Toby Hearst
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 23-27

Mar 22, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy. Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In barely a week, bond traders have swung from expecting rate cuts to pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a tightening move by October. In Europe, the financial markets

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek
Toby Hearst

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 26–30

Jan 25, 2026 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Remind Us: Why Did The Fed Ease?

Dec 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Productivity must be booming. Real GDP jumped 4.3% (saar) in Q3, following a 3.8% increase in Q2. Over the same period, aggregate hours worked in private industry was flat (saar). Productivity must have increased by more than 3.5% over the previous two quarters. That's consistent with our productivity-led Roaring 2020s scenario. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 22–26

Dec 21, 2025 3 min read

This looks to be a mercifully quiet holiday week that nonetheless offers a smattering of key data releases. Chief among them will be Q3's GDP and December's Consumer Confidence Index survey. Clearly, the economic fog caused by the government shutdown is following the markets into the new year. Though recent employment data have been illuminating—showing that the labor market may be a bit more robust

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Affordability Crisis

Dec 1, 2025 7 min read paid

This is an excerpt from the December 1, 2025 Yardeni Research Morning Briefing. Affordability I: A Depressed State of Mind. Why are consumers so depressed? The monthly Consumer Optimism Index (COI), which is the average of the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), fell to 69.5 in November (Fig. 1 below). That’s a level consistent with previous recession troughs in this average index. The

Ed Yardeni

Reality Check

Oct 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Shares of Nokia soared by 23% today after the telecom equipment provider announced a billion-dollar partnership with artificial intelligence (AI) giant Nvidia. As part of the deal, Nvidia plans to invest $1 billion in Nokia in exchange for a 2.9% stake in the Finnish networking pioneer. Yardeni Research is seeking an investment from Nvidia. The funds will be used to build a data center in Dr Ed's

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13 - 17

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it's perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won't be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies engage in a trade war. The impact of the 130% tariff that President Donald Trump threatens to impose on China, effective November 1,

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6 - 10

Oct 5, 2025 3 min read

This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who are undecided about the need to vote for a rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. This week will offer investors insights into the internal dynamics of the September 16-17

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

Aug 26, 2025 2 min read

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August's survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is above its average over time of 48.2%. That drop was matched by an uptick in the jobs-hard-to-get series to 20.0%. In our opinion, these stats

Ed Yardeni

Happy Day

May 27, 2025 3 min read paid

Today is a happy day for stock investors. They are pleased that President Donald Trump had a pleasant phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend. So he postponed his threat on Friday to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 to July 9. Today, Trump said he is monitoring "positive" steps in trade talks with the region, which has

Ed Yardeni

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