Consumer Confidence

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13 - 17

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it's perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won't be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies engage in a trade war. The impact of the 130% tariff that President Donald Trump threatens to impose on China, effective November 1,

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 6 - 10

Oct 5, 2025 3 min read

This is a quiet week for key economic data releases, but it is even quieter due to the ongoing government shutdown. For financial markets, this informational void is equivalent to flying blind. That also applies to Fed officials who are undecided about the need to vote for a rate cut at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. This week will offer investors insights into the internal dynamics of the September 16-17

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

Aug 26, 2025 2 min read

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August's survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is above its average over time of 48.2%. That drop was matched by an uptick in the jobs-hard-to-get series to 20.0%. In our opinion, these stats

Ed Yardeni

Happy Day

May 27, 2025 3 min read paid

Today is a happy day for stock investors. They are pleased that President Donald Trump had a pleasant phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the weekend. So he postponed his threat on Friday to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 to July 9. Today, Trump said he is monitoring "positive" steps in trade talks with the region, which has

Ed Yardeni

Is The Economy On The Edge?

May 1, 2025 3 min read

The good news is that the Magnificent-7 are still magnificent. Three of them (Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft) beat earnings expectations for Q1. We've been arguing that while AI may or may not make money for the providers of Large Language Models, the result will be more demand for cloud computing. That should be good news for at least four of the Mag-7. The bad news is that recent

Ed Yardeni

In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

Feb 25, 2025 3 min read

The stock market sold off this morning on a decline in February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), confirming a similar decline in February's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which was reported at the end of last week. The CSI survey tends to be more affected by inflation, while the CCI survey is more affected by employment. The former was weak this month on concerns about rising inflation, while

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Back On The Happy Trail

Jan 28, 2025 3 min read paid

Today, the US stock market quickly confirmed our view that DeepSeek is a positive for the proliferation of AI, which should boost productivity and economic growth, especially in the US. The Nasdaq added 2% as Nvidia rose 9%. Both regained much of Monday's losses from the DeepSeek mini panic. It was yet another buying opportunity in the current bull market, as we anticipated in Sunday's QT.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bulls

Dec 5, 2024 3 min read

We were very bullish at the start of this year with a Street-high year-end price target of 5400 for the S&P 500. That level was surpassed on June 12. We weren't bullish enough as the stampeding bulls left hoof marks on our backs. So we raised our target to 5800 on July 10, which was surpassed on November 6 (chart). So we raised our target to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stocks Still OK With Tariff Man

Nov 26, 2024 3 min read paid

Last night, President Trump posted on social media that he will slap a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada his first day in office. The tariff will remain in effect until fentanyl, other drugs, and illegal immigrants stop pouring over the northern and southern borders, he said. Similarly, Trump said China will face an additional 10% above any existing tariffs until it stems the flow of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

25bps Cut? We Strongly Dissent!

Nov 5, 2024 3 min read paid

We may or may not know tonight who will be the next president, but we should know which party will win a majority in the Senate and the House. It appears that Republicans are likely to do so. In this case, a Harris administration would be gridlocked, while a Trump administration would have more power to implement his policies, including higher tariffs (raising inflation risks) and lower taxes (ballooning the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Help Still Wanted

Oct 29, 2024 2 min read paid

We don't expect to be disappointed by October's payroll employment report on Friday. Both September's JOLTS report and October's consumer confidence survey suggest that the labor market remains in good shape. Better yet, it may be improving. The impact of bad weather and strike-related layoffs will make a dent in October's payroll employment number, but that doesn't mean

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

When American Consumers Are Depressed, They Go Shopping

Sep 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys conducted by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The Consumer Optimism Index, which we calculate as the average of the CCI and CSI remains down and out (chart). The CCI tends to be more sensitive to employment, while the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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