Crude Oil

US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%

Sep 12, 2026 5 min read

I. Performance The good news is that our recommendation to overweight the S&P 500 Energy sector is working well (chart). The bad news is that it is doing so because the war in the Middle East has re-escalated. Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack that originated in Iraq. The pipeline had been moving 4 million to 5

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Apocalypse Now! Or, TACO Now?

Jul 23, 2026 5 min read paid

(1) Geopolitics. President Donald Trump said he is weighing a “massive attack” on Iran. The Pentagon is flooding the Middle East with elite troops, fighter jets, and combat medics. “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than anything we have ever had before. I am close to making a decision. We are fully prepared for it,” the president told Israel’s Channel 12 on Thursday. The US military on Tuesday

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

War! What Is It Good For?

Jul 8, 2026 3 min read

The 1970 song "War! What Is It Good For?" was performed by the Temptations on an album and by Edwin Starr as a single. The song's answer to the question is "Absolutely nothing!" The powerful lyrics include: "It ain't nothing but a heartbreaker / Friend only to the undertaker, woo!" Financial market history shows that geopolitical crises, including wars, often have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

June's Swoons

Jun 23, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock market was hit by another June swoon today. Investors were unnerved by the outcome of last Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The committee participants were more hawkish than expected, according to their Dot Plot. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh abstained from providing his dot, but he came across as very hawkish during his presser, repeatedly stressing the importance of the Fed achieving price stability. Also weighing on AI-related

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market Rally Isn't Running Out of Fuel. US Economy Still Acing Stress Tests.

Apr 23, 2026 4 min read paid

President Donald Trump may have to write a sequel to his 1987 book, "Trump: The Art of the Deal." It's hard to make a deal if you kill your opponent. He said that about Iran today again: "They’re all messed up. They have no idea who their leader is... We took out, really, three levels of leaders... So they have a hard time figuring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ENERGY: A Buying Opportunity

Apr 20, 2026 4 min read paid

We gave up on the S&P 500 Energy sector a couple of years ago. It has been underperforming the S&P 500 since late 2022 (chart). As a result of the latest war in the Middle East, it has been an outperformer since the beginning of this year through Friday, March 27. The sector has been underperforming again since then, when President Donald Trump suggested that the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

MARKET CALL: Yogi Was Right: 'The War Ain't Over Till It's Over'

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read paid

In his seminal work, On War (1832), Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote: "War is the continuation of politics by other means." The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their war and to talks seeking a diplomatic solution. However, their talks failed, and now they are both resuming the war. On Sunday, US Central Command said the Navy will blockade all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Gold, Oil, Stocks & Bonds In The War

Mar 25, 2026 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump must believe that the war will be over soon. The White House announced today that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14 and 15. The Iranians responded to Trump's 15-point peace plan today with a list of five conditions, according to Press TV, including reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and no more assassinations. Interestingly, they didn&

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Odds Of A Longer War Increasing As Trump Set To Declare Victory

Mar 22, 2026 5 min read paid

Is the fog of war thinning or thickening? President Donald Trump has suggested that he is getting ready to declare victory. However, the Iranians have been at war with the US and Israel for 47 years and are showing no signs of ending it. On Friday night, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and is considering "winding

Ed Yardeni

Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?

Mar 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility. Early this morning at 2:17 a.m. EST, the price of a barrel of

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience

Mar 17, 2026 3 min read paid

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions and boosted inflation, resulting in a lost "stagflationary" decade for the stock market. The previous spike in 2022 coincided with a bear market in stocks, but there was no

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Policymakers Trying To Cap Gushing Oil Fears

Mar 9, 2026 3 min read

Oftentimes, when the financial markets are hit by bad news, policymakers scramble to calm them. That happened today in response to last night's soaring oil prices (chart). (1) G7 response. To address the market turmoil following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors held an emergency virtual meeting today. The group's primary strategy was to signal

Ed Yardeni

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