Crude Oil

Loose Houthis Can Sink Ships

Jan 16, 2024 2 min read

Chevron CEO Michael Wirth warned yesterday in a CNBC interview that the Red Sea crisis could disrupt oil supplies and quickly push oil prices higher: "So much of the world's oil flows through that region that were it to be cut off, I think you could see things change very rapidly," he said. So what did the price of oil do today? It edged down (chart)

Ed Yardeni

Fairy Godmother Of The Bond Market

Jan 2, 2024 2 min read paid

When Janet Yellen was Fed chair from 2014 to 2018, we often referred to her as the “Fairy Godmother of the Stock Market.” We noticed that stock prices tended to rally following her speeches and testimonies on monetary policy and the economy. She has been Treasury secretary since 2021. We may start calling her the “Fairy Godmother of the Bond Market.” That’s because the rally in the bond market

Ed Yardeni

What Does Dr Copper Say About The Global Economy?

Dec 29, 2023 2 min read

Copper is often described as the shiny metal with a PhD in economics because it provides useful insights into global economic activity. The price of the red metal has rallied in recent days, and could be on the verge of breaking out of its downtrend during 2022 and 2023 that resulted from the bursting of China's property bubble and the decline in US housing starts (chart). A similar

Ed Yardeni

Is Everybody (Too) Happy?

Dec 20, 2023 3 min read

Everybody in the stock market (at least everybody with long positions, which includes most investors) has been happy since the S&P 500 bottomed on October 27—until it stumbled a bit today. The market was up in the morning despite a dive by FedEx shares. But stock prices tumbled during a late afternoon selloff. Most pundits concluded that the market was overbought and due for a correction. We

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

A Whiff Of Deflation

Nov 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Oil's Slippery Slope

Nov 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The NYMEX nearby futures price of a barrel of crude oil peaked this year at $93.68 on September 27. Notwithstanding the war that started between Israel and Hamas on October 7, the price is down $16.27 from that peak to $77.42. That’s even though Saudi Arabia and Russia reduced their exports during the summer and maintained their cuts through yearend. One reason for this development is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Forces Of Light Versus The Forces of Darkness

Oct 16, 2023 2 min read

Yin and yang. The forces of darkness appeared in the bond market while light shined in the stock market today. Bond investors would like to see weaker economic indicators to have more confidence that inflation can continue to moderate. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remained relatively elevated at 51.8 on Friday (chart). They would also like to see less supply at the Treasury bond auctions, but that isn'

Ed Yardeni

Fed Officials Calm Troubled Waters

Oct 9, 2023 2 min read

The bond market was closed today for Columbus Day. However, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged 2.34%. This evening, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield dropped from 4.80% on Friday to 4.65%. The S&P 500 was weak in the morning, but rose 0.63% today (chart). It held its 200-day moving average last week (chart). That's impressive given that oil

Ed Yardeni

Saudis Have A Vision

Sep 27, 2023 3 min read paid

Saudi Vision 2030 is the vision of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). He wants to diversify the economy of his country. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund aims to spend $40 billion a year on the domestic economy—including the construction of Neom, a futuristic city in the desert with an estimated price tag of $500 billion. By some estimates that requires that the price

Ed Yardeni

Canada's Inflation Spooks Bonds Around the World

Sep 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Canada's CPI inflation rate in August jumped to 4.0% from 3.3% in July on higher gasoline prices. Shelter prices also jumped by 6.0% after a 5.1% advance in July, pushed up in part by rising rents and higher interest rates. The closely watched trimmed-mean CPI rate unexpectedly rebounded to 3.9%, well above expectations of 3.5%. The Canadian 10-year government bond yield jumped

Ed Yardeni

What Could Go Wrong In September?

Sep 5, 2023 3 min read paid

On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. It is widely viewed as a rotten month for stocks, which has been true during 55% of Septembers since 1928. But those selloffs have often turned out to be good opportunities to pick fallen stocks just in time for a yearend Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 fell today back towards its 50-day moving average

Ed Yardeni

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