Employment

We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Mar 6, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very reassuring during his congressional testimony today. He said the economy is fine, inflation is moderating, and interest rates have probably peaked. He also said the Fed is likely to lower interest rates, but won't rush to do so: "We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 4 - 8

Mar 2, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. We expect that January's JOLTS report (Wed) and February's employment report (Fri) will confirm that the labor market remains strong. That's based on weekly initial unemployment claims remaining just north of 200,000 in recent weeks and February's consumer confidence survey showing that 41.3% of respondents agreed that jobs are plentiful (chart). Bad

Ed Yardeni

50 Shades of Bright Colors

Feb 27, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking at a 3.2% annual rate, up from 2.9% on February 16. Real GDP was up 4.9% and 3.3% during Q3 and Q4 last year (chart). We also learned today that there are still plenty of jobs available in the labor market. The Consumer Confidence Index survey

Ed Yardeni

Higher For Longer

Feb 22, 2024 2 min read paid

We've been in the higher-for-longer camp regarding the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) since the end of last year. That outlook was confirmed by the release of January's FOMC minutes yesterday and today's speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed wants to see more progress bringing inflation down and is in no rush to ease given the strength of the

Ed Yardeni

It Was Cold In January, But Spring Is Coming!

Feb 15, 2024 2 min read

Retail sales fell 0.8% m/m in January, much weaker than expected (chart). Leading the way down was a 4.1% drop in building materials & garden equipment & supplies. Following the release of January's employment report, we anticipated some weakness in retail sales because the 0.2% increase in payrolls was offset by an odd 0.6% drop in average weekly hours (chart). Also weak during

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Scare

Feb 13, 2024 2 min read paid

Today, January's CPI inflation rate was slightly higher than expected. But the upside surprise was enough to convince investors and traders that the Fed is less likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) soon or by as much as they expected over the next 12 months. The 12-month federal FFR futures rose to 4.44% today, up from 3.74% on January 15 (chart). That amounts to

Ed Yardeni

Happy Groundhog Day!

Feb 2, 2024 2 min read paid

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, woke up this morning and did not see his shadow, calling for an early spring. In the 1979 comedy movie classic, "Being There," Chauncey Gardner, played by Peter Sellers, predicted: "Yes! There will be growth in the spring!" There has been growth in the winter too. Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1's growth was

Ed Yardeni

Help (Still) Wanted

Jan 30, 2024 2 min read

The job market remains strong. That was the message from a couple of labor market indicators today. The most timely was January's consumer confidence survey. The series for "jobs hard to get" dropped to 9.8% of respondents, almost a record-low reading (chart). This suggests that the unemployment rate remained below 4.0% this month. The survey's "jobs plentiful" series jumped to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 29 - February 2

Jan 28, 2024 2 min read paid

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell conducting a press conference Wednesday afternoon. We expect no change in the federal funds rate. Powell is likely to push back against the market's expectations of sooner-rather-than-later rate cuts by observing that financial conditions have eased and the economy is stronger than expected, thanks in part to productivity. The first week of each month tends to be

Ed Yardeni

Hot Chips

Jan 18, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

This Week: January 8 - 12

Jan 10, 2024 2 min read

The second week of the month tends to be light on economic releases compared to the other weeks of the month. However, it usually includes the CPI. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting is projecting that tomorrow's headline and core CPI inflation rates for December will both be up 0.3% m/m. We are thinking that the headline might be closer to zero given that gasoline prices continued

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: What Should We Root For?

Jan 7, 2024 2 min read

Both the bond and stock markets didn't do much on Friday following the release of December's employment report and NM-PMI. The former looked better-than-expected at first, but not as strong in the details (and downward revisions of the previous two months), and wage inflation was higher than expected. The NM-PMI was weaker than expected led by an unbelievable (literally) drop in its employment sub-index down to

Ed Yardeni

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