Energy

Oil Shock Is Latest Test Of US Economy's Resilience

Mar 17, 2026 3 min read paid

The latest crude oil price spike has drawn comparisons to previous similar spikes (charts). There were six of them before the current one, since 1970. The first five coincided with recessions. The two during the 1970s caused two recessions and boosted inflation, resulting in a lost "stagflationary" decade for the stock market. The previous spike in 2022 coincided with a bear market in stocks, but there was no

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Too Many Bulls Getting Shocked As AI Turns On Humans

Feb 4, 2026 3 min read

Last Thursday, we noted that the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio of 3.99 suggested the market was vulnerable to a selloff. So far, so bad. What's worse is that the BBR rose to 4.13 this week (chart).There are still too many bulls from a contrarian perspective. But a few more days like yesterday and today would bring the BBR back down. The good news is

Ed Yardeni

Is Oil Price Anticipating an Imminent War Between Iran & Israel?

Aug 12, 2024 2 min read

The war in the Middle East may be about to widen. Consider the following: (1) The Israeli intelligence community reportedly believes that Iran has decided to directly target Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh. That decision was made after an internal debate between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG) and the new Iranian president and his advisors. The IRG has been pushing for a

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Has Discounted Lots Of Good News

Mar 19, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia was up a measly 1% today despite the exciting presentation, after Monday's close, by CEO Jensen Huang about the company's future in the AI ecosystem. He announced a new generation of GPU chips and software for running AI models. The first chips in the new Blackwell platform will be shipped later this year. They are more powerful (with a five-fold increase in petaflops) and consume

Ed Yardeni

Oil Is Well

Aug 22, 2023 2 min read paid

Reuters reported today that the major US oil and gas producers spent more on payouts to shareholders last year than on exploration and development, according to an Ernst & Young report. By reducing capital spending, the industry is reducing its costs, contributing to upward pressure on oil and gas prices, and increasing its dividends and buybacks as profits swell. Of course, plenty of other factors are influencing prices as well.

Ed Yardeni

OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production

Apr 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

US Turning Into Net Exporter Of Petroleum

Oct 24, 2022 1 min read paid

On October 11, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the US should pump more oil amid the world's energy crisis, just days after OPEC+ agreed to a production cut that is equivalent to 2% of the global supply. In a CNBC interview, he said that "America is the swing producer, not Saudi Arabia." We agree. Notwithstanding the Biden administration's hostility to domestic fossil fuel

Ed Yardeni

One-Week Winning Streak

Sep 9, 2022 1 min read paid

The DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 snapped a three-week losing streak today. Why? After all, on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell in an interview at Cato Institute reiterate that the Fed won't back down on planned rate increases. "We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done," he said. "

Ed Yardeni

Watching The Pump Price

Aug 12, 2022 1 min read

Everyone who drives a car or rides in one knows the price of gasoline on a daily basis. The sharp drop in this price during July fueled the rally in the stock and bond markets as investors concluded that it would help to moderate July's CPI and PPI, which it did as expected over the past two days. We will be watching this price along with everyone else

Ed Yardeni

The Best Cure For High Gasoline Prices

Aug 4, 2022 1 min read paid

The best cure for high gasoline prices is high gasoline prices. Gas prices have tumbled by 86 cents since hitting a record average high of $5.02 on June 14. Over the past month alone the national average is down by 65 cents. Americans cut back on driving when gas prices spiked above $5 a gallon. The 4-week moving average of gasoline usage dropped 9.5% to 8.6 million

Ed Yardeni

Germany's Economic Outlook Taking A Dive

Jul 25, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Energy Earnings Still Energetic

Jul 8, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 Energy sector has been weak recently, but it is still the only one of the index's 11 sectors with a gain so far this year at 28.0% ytd. Here are a few quick takeaways: (1) The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has been volatile around $100 recently and looking toppy. The outlook has become extremely controversial. On July 1,

Ed Yardeni

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