Fed

Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

Aug 7, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a search for a permanent replacement. The Senate will probably confirm his nomination quickly and before the September meeting of the FOMC. If so, then there could be at least

Ed Yardeni

To 'V' Or Not To 'V'? That Is The Question!

Aug 4, 2025 4 min read paid

In our April 7 Morning Briefing, we anticipated the bottom in this year's S&P 500 correction and a V-shaped rebound. The bottom occurred the very next day. The V-shaped recovery started the following day on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Wednesday, April 2, Liberation Day tariffs. We wrote: "Trump's Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday,

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Freaky Friday

Aug 3, 2025 4 min read

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

Let The Games Begin!

Jul 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Tomorrow will be action-packed. Wednesday morning, the US Treasury will issue its Quarterly Refunding Statement detailing how it intends to finance $1.0 trillion in marketable securities during Q3. The question is whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will rely more on doing so in the Treasury bill market, as recently suggested by President Donald Trump. Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC will issue a press release at 2:00 p.m., most

Ed Yardeni

Wednesday Is Not Just Fed Day But Also Treasury’s Refunding Day

Jul 28, 2025 3 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision. Odds are that it will be a non-event, i.e., the federal funds rate will remain unchanged (chart). The only drama will be whether the FOMC sticks to the current party line: "We are in no rush to lower interest rates." Or, will it signal a dovish pivot? If Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Path Of Least Resistance

Jul 27, 2025 2 min read paid

President Donald Trump is on a roll. He now has 33 trade deals—with the UK, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and the 27 countries that are members of the European Union (EU). The EU deal was announced today. The deals show that Trump has raised his baseline tariff to 15% from 10%. He must figure that, in addition to his other tariffs, the US should collect at least

Ed Yardeni

Fed Day (7/30) To Be Followed By Liberation Day II (8/1)

Jul 21, 2025 2 min read paid

The next couple of weeks will certainly be interesting. The FOMC will decide on whether to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) or not on July 30. On August 1, the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on goods imported from America's trading partners. Furthermore, administration officials will undoubtedly continue to beat up on the Fed, especially if the FOMC decides not to lower the FFR next week. This

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: What If the Fed Hints At A September Rate Cut Next Week?

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read paid

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7% based on futures pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool. A strong June jobs report, which added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls and showed the unemployment rate drop to 4.1%, has significantly reduced expectations for a July cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed policymakers have emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach,

Ed Yardeni

Is Inflation Stuck At 3.0% Because Of Trump's Tariffs?

Jul 15, 2025 3 min read paid

Today's CPI report for June suggests that consumer price inflation is no longer declining toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Instead, it might continue to hover around 3.0% for a while as it has recently (chart). Trump's tariffs may be a contributing factor, though their impact remains debated. The core CPI inflation rate upticked to 2.9% last month, hinting that the core

Ed Yardeni

Correction: On Fed Governors' Terms

Jul 1, 2025 1 min read

In previous QuickTakes, we wrote that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires on May 15, 2026 but that he could stay on as a Fed governor until his term in that position expires on January 31, 2028. However, we were incorrect that President Donald Trump would be limited to the other current Fed governors when appointing the next Fed chair. That's because Fed

Ed Yardeni

Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar

Jul 1, 2025 4 min read paid

There is method to President Donald Trump's madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker dollar to boost US exports and depress US imports. He has said that he favored a weaker dollar many times in the past, but now he has found a

Ed Yardeni

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