Fed

Missions Impossible: The War, The Fed & The Yen

Aug 3, 2026 4 min read paid

In Mission: Impossible, Ethan Hunt is always given a nearly impossible mission to accomplish. The objective is crystal clear, the deadline is urgent, and a plan is quickly formulated to achieve the mission. Like Hunt, President Donald Trump, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have clear missions. Their plans for accomplishing these missions are less clear. Despite these uncertainties, the S&P 500 rose today to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh Fails First Credibility Test: Bond Vigilantes Want More Than Hawkish Squawks

Jul 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed officials just won't listen to us! We warned them that the economy didn't need the four cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) at the end of 2024. The Bond Vigilantes agreed with us and pushed the 10-year Treasury bond yield up by 100bps at the time (chart). The same happened late last year. The Fed lowered the FFR three times. The bond yield

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Inflation Risks Still Outweigh Labor Market Risks

Jul 28, 2026 4 min read paid

All eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets expect the Fed's monetary policy committee to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the CME FedWatch assigning roughly a 70% probability to no change and a 30% probability to a 25bps rate hike. Investors will be closely watching the FOMC statement, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the degree

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27 - 31

Jul 26, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil was the dominant story: The price of Brent crude jumped 7% Thursday to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May 26, after Yemen's Houthi militants claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea (chart). President

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade

Jul 21, 2026 4 min read paid

As confetti and red-and-yellow streamers rained down on the roaring crowd, the final whistle blew, and Spain lifted the World Cup trophy after a thrilling 1:0 victory over Argentina. The games are over. The fans are heading home, and an important economic tailwind is beginning to fade. According to Bank of America, the FIFA World Cup generated roughly $20 billion in economic activity across the United States,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh

Jul 14, 2026 4 min read paid

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds rate (FFR) at its July 28-29 meeting? Foggetaboutit! Today's CPI inflation report was surprisingly subdued across the board. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target, so the FOMC is likely to maintain its tightening stance, which was adopted in June. However, after the latest inflation report, there is no rush for the FOMC to act, contrary to

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!

Jul 13, 2026 4 min read paid

MOU is DOA. The memorandum of (mis)understanding between the US and Iran is dead on arrival. Act II of the latest Gulf War is underway after a brief interlude. President Donald Trump declared today that the United States will be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT." He announced that the US is reinstating its naval blockade on Iran and plans to enforce a 20% fee

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot

Jul 9, 2026 4 min read

I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far this year. The market might continue to fluctuate around 7,500 over the rest

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes

Jul 1, 2026 4 min read paid

The temperature was 81 degrees in Sintra, Portugal, today. Tomorrow it will be 101 degrees. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on a panel in Sintra today. He was cool as a cucumber. This was his second public appearance since his first press conference as the new Fed chair on June 17. Back then, he was surprisingly hawkish, stressing that he and his colleagues on the FOMC are committed to restoring

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates

Jun 29, 2026 4 min read paid

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has often said that the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee should talk publicly less often. He wants the Fed to follow the financial markets rather than the other way around. Yet, two weeks after his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, June 17, he is scheduled to appear on a policy panel on Wednesday, July 1, at the annual ECB Forum on

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Hawk In Dove's Clothing ... June Swoon Is Back ... 'We Have A Task Force On That'

Jun 17, 2026 4 min read

We weren't surprised by most of the news following today's FOMC meeting. We expected the committee to pivot from April's easing bias to a tightening bias, and they did. We expected the committee to acknowledge that, in their dual mandate, the risk of higher inflation had risen, while the risk of higher unemployment had fallen, and they did. The FOMC's Summary of

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate

Jun 17, 2026 5 min read

During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above the "neutral" FFR. Under the Fed's dual mandate, the

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

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