Fed

Nirvana: Will Somebody Tell The Fed That We Have Arrived?

Feb 18, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed achieved its congressional dual mandate in January. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, and the CPI inflation rate was down to 2.4% y/y. Those round down to what we call “Nirvana” readings, i.e., the low unemployment level of 4.0% and the Fed’s inflation target of 2.0% (chart). Fed officials should celebrate and go on a long vacation. They can leave the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

DEEP DIVE: Meet Kevin Warsh

Feb 7, 2026 10 min read paid

Excerpt from the February 2 Morning Briefing of Yardeni Research. The Fed I: Direct From Central Casting I spent the weekend reading up on Kevin Warsh, who will replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May. My friends at the Financial Times asked me to write an 800-word op-ed on him. Sharing those thoughts with readers here leaves me with plenty of additional space to elaborate on what I have

Ed Yardeni

Powell Says: ‘I Have Nothing On That For You’

Jan 28, 2026 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't have much to say at his press conference today. He deflected several questions about the transition as his term as Fed chair ends on May 15. He refused to comment on President Donald Trump's potential pick to replace him or the President's public criticisms of his leadership. He declined to comment on the Department of Justice investigation into himself

Ed Yardeni

Fed Is ‘Well Positioned’ To Do Nothing For A While

Dec 10, 2025 3 min read

As widely expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps today. It has lowered the FFR by 75bps since September of this year. Since the start of the current easing cycle in September 2024, this rate has declined by 175 bps to 3.50%-3.75%. In his prepared remarks at today’s press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell rightly observed the obvious: "The adjustments

Ed Yardeni

Fed Easing Fails To Ease Bond Yields

Dec 8, 2025 3 min read paid

Have you heard? The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. That would be a 175bps cut in the FFR since the Fed started its latest monetary easing cycle in September of last year. In his October press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "Now we’re

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: December 8-12

Dec 7, 2025 3 min read

Obviously, this week is all about the Fed's big interest-rate decision (Wed); the policymakers are expected almost universally to cut rates 25bps for a third time this year. The immediate focus will be on the composition of the FOMC's vote and the insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference: how many dissenters, if any; Fed officials' take on the balance of risks

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

Joy Ride

Nov 24, 2025 3 min read

At the start of November, we expected a pullback in the stock market because the Bull-Bear Ratio we monitor indicated too many bulls. That's bearish from a contrarian perspective. Could the pullback be over already? It might be if the Fed delivers a rate cut on December 10. The stock market took a gut-wrenching dive on Thursday last week. It's still not obvious why the drop

Ed Yardeni

To Bail Or Not To Bail?

Nov 20, 2025 4 min read

Good news bears were on the loose today. It was a risk-off day in financial markets despite strong earnings and economic news. Nvidia reported better-than-expected Q3 results yesterday after the market closed. This morning, we learned that payroll employment rose more than expected in September and that initial unemployment claims remained subdued last week. Nevertheless, it was a bad day for stock investors. The stock market pullback that we expected

Ed Yardeni

Data-Dependent

Nov 19, 2025 3 min read

What do Nvidia and the Fed have in common? They are both data-dependent. Nvidia's GPUs are the latest stage of the Digital Revolution, which started during the mid-1960s with IBM's mainframes. The Digital Revolution is all about processing ever more data, faster and faster, and at ever lower cost. In this context, GPUs are just the latest development in the Digital Revolution. The next big, new

Ed Yardeni

Don't Feed The Animal Spirits

Oct 29, 2025 3 min read paid

In his press conference today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told financial market participants that today's 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR) might not be followed by another one on December 10, when the FOMC votes on monetary policy again. "In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December," Powell said. "A further

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Fly Us To The Moon

Oct 25, 2025 4 min read

The major stock market indexes rocketed to new record highs on Friday. We are raising the odds of a meltup from 25% to 30%, reducing the odds of our bullish base-case scenario from 55% to 50%, while leaving the bearish alternative scenario at 20%. In our base-case scenario, the S&P 500 stock price index rises to 7000 by the end of this year and 7700 by the end

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13 - 17

Oct 12, 2025 3 min read

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it's perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won't be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies engage in a trade war. The impact of the 130% tariff that President Donald Trump threatens to impose on China, effective November 1,

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

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