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Checks and Balances
The US is a federal republic. It isn't a democracy, where the majority always rules. The constitutional system…
Fed
166 posts
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FOMC Day Minus One: Waiting For Nothing
The federal funds rate (FFR) futures market has consistently been predicting several cuts in the FFR since March 2023 (chart)…
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MARKET CALL: Investing Without A Trump Or Powell Put
Anything is possible in Trump World. We can't rule out the possibility that a bear market started on…
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Bond Vigilantes Pushing Back Against Reckless Monetary & Fiscal Policies
The 10-year Treasury bond yield is up 100bps since the Fed started lowering the federal funds rate (FFR) by 100bps…
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MARKET CALL: Get A Neck Brace
Wednesday was a bad day for stocks after the release of the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)…
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Fed's Hawkish Rate Cut Triggers Pausing Tantrum
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps today, as widely expected. That takes…
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Is the Fed Inflating? Is China Deflating?
Last Thursday, we wrote, "After today's PPI, we won't be surprised if Fed officials plant…
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Will Rate Cuts Continue Unless Inflation Behaves Badly?
Today's CPI report for November matched expectations. The CME FedWatch tool shows 95% odds that the FOMC will…
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US Jobs Market: Onwards & Upwards
We've contended all year that the labor market was normalizing from the unsustainable pace of hiring during the…
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MARKET CALL: Powell's Latest Pirouette
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouette's are masterful. He did another such pivot on…
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Sticky Landing For Inflation?
Today's CPI report suggests that inflation may be getting stuck north of the Fed's 2.0%…
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Powell's Mixed Message Remains Dovish
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps today as widely expected. We expected…
