Fed

Market Call: What Could Possibly Go Wrong In September?

Aug 30, 2025 4 min read

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies. So, might the latest top in the S&P 500 have been hit on

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 25-29

Aug 24, 2025 3 min read

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking the talk of easing, markets are on the lookout for whether upcoming data are walking the walk. A Fed rate cut next month isn't a done deal, no matter what Powell hinted at last Friday at Jackson Hole. A lot can happen in a few weeks. Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets September 16-17, policymakers will see a

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Waiting For The Chair To Speak

Aug 21, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock and bond prices have been marking time over the past couple of weeks, waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at 10 a.m. at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, today's batch of economic indicators supports our view that a Fed rate cut may not be warranted at the September 16-17 meeting of the FOMC if the other indicators released in the coming days also

Ed Yardeni

Dueling Fed Mandates

Aug 19, 2025 4 min read paid

The Fed is required by law to keep inflation low and stable while also maintaining full employment. Achieving that dual mandate isn't always easy. Currently, the labor market is at full employment, but there are a few signs of weakening. Inflation was on track to fall to the Fed's 2.0% inflation target, but has been stuck around 3.0% recently. Some Fed officials believe that

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 18 - 22

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read

Wolf pack sightings aren’t uncommon in Grand Teton National Park. But this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may find himself fending off a large pack of them again as Federal Reserve officials gather for their annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The two-plus weeks since July's week employment surprise have given economic pessimists room to roam. Weaker-than-expected data, though, now confront hotter inflation sightings. Given the core

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

MARKET CALL: Will Powell Be Hawkish, Dovish, Or Owlish In The Grand Tetons?

Aug 17, 2025 3 min read members

The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will focus on "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." The symposium is scheduled for August 21-23. It's an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, economists, and academics to discuss important economic issues and long-term policy challenges. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak

Ed Yardeni

Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

Aug 7, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a search for a permanent replacement. The Senate will probably confirm his nomination quickly and before the September meeting of the FOMC. If so, then there could be at least

Ed Yardeni

To 'V' Or Not To 'V'? That Is The Question!

Aug 4, 2025 4 min read paid

In our April 7 Morning Briefing, we anticipated the bottom in this year's S&P 500 correction and a V-shaped rebound. The bottom occurred the very next day. The V-shaped recovery started the following day on April 9, when President Donald Trump postponed his Wednesday, April 2, Liberation Day tariffs. We wrote: "Trump's Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered Annihilation Days on Thursday and Friday,

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Freaky Friday

Aug 3, 2025 4 min read

On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Is In The Cloud

Jul 30, 2025 3 min read

The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Statement, released this morning, was a non-event. No unexpected policy shifts or drastic changes in issuance sizes were noted, so the announcement was largely as anticipated. The FOMC's decision in the afternoon to leave the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged was widely expected, too. So was the fact that two Fed governors dissented from that decision for the first time since 1993.

Ed Yardeni

Let The Games Begin!

Jul 29, 2025 3 min read paid

Tomorrow will be action-packed. Wednesday morning, the US Treasury will issue its Quarterly Refunding Statement detailing how it intends to finance $1.0 trillion in marketable securities during Q3. The question is whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will rely more on doing so in the Treasury bill market, as recently suggested by President Donald Trump. Tomorrow afternoon, the FOMC will issue a press release at 2:00 p.m., most

Ed Yardeni

Wednesday Is Not Just Fed Day But Also Treasury’s Refunding Day

Jul 28, 2025 3 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision. Odds are that it will be a non-event, i.e., the federal funds rate will remain unchanged (chart). The only drama will be whether the FOMC sticks to the current party line: "We are in no rush to lower interest rates." Or, will it signal a dovish pivot? If Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle

Ed Yardeni

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