Fed

Market Call: Fed Choir All On Same Page

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday at an event at the San Francisco Fed. He repeated what other Fed officials have been saying recently. Solid economic growth gives the Fed "the chance to just be a little more confident about inflation coming down before we take the important step of cutting rates." Inflation continues to moderate on a "sometimes bumpy" path. So there's

Ed Yardeni

'There's Still No Rush'

Mar 27, 2024 2 min read paid

So said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller this evening at the Economic Club of New York in a speech titled “There’s Still No Rush.” He noted that the latest inflation figures were "disappointing" and that the economy and labor market remain strong. So, in his opinion, "it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or push them further into the future in response

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Fed Put Is Back

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Last week, the FOMC released its latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for March. Compared to December's SEP, the committee's participants raised their 2024 median forecasts for real GDP (from 1.4% to 2.1%) and for the core PCED inflation rate (from 2.4% to 2.6%). Their median forecast for the unemployment rate was lowered a bit from 4.1% to 4.0%

Ed Yardeni

Powell & Co. Remain Dovish

Mar 20, 2024 3 min read

Powell & Co. were more dovish today than we (and stock investors) expected. The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still implied three 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) this year (table). That's the same projection as in December's SEP even though the median forecast was raised for real GDP growth (to 2.1% from 1.4%) and the core PCE inflation

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Nvidia's Lovefest Versus Powell's (Perhaps Depressing) Presser

Mar 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia's three-day AI lovefest for developers starts Monday afternoon in San Jose, California. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm following the meeting. During his congressional testimony on March 7, Powell indicated that the Fed "is not far from...dial[ing] back the level of restriction." After last week's hotter than

Ed Yardeni

New Risk: Powell Stoking Risk-On Trades

Mar 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish congressional testimony yesterday and today stoked the hot trades in the financial markets from Nvidia to bitcoin to gold: "We're waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we're not far from it, it'll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,

Ed Yardeni

We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Mar 6, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very reassuring during his congressional testimony today. He said the economy is fine, inflation is moderating, and interest rates have probably peaked. He also said the Fed is likely to lower interest rates, but won't rush to do so: "We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it

Ed Yardeni

Higher For Longer

Feb 22, 2024 2 min read paid

We've been in the higher-for-longer camp regarding the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) since the end of last year. That outlook was confirmed by the release of January's FOMC minutes yesterday and today's speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed wants to see more progress bringing inflation down and is in no rush to ease given the strength of the

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Scare

Feb 13, 2024 2 min read paid

Today, January's CPI inflation rate was slightly higher than expected. But the upside surprise was enough to convince investors and traders that the Fed is less likely to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) soon or by as much as they expected over the next 12 months. The 12-month federal FFR futures rose to 4.44% today, up from 3.74% on January 15 (chart). That amounts to

Ed Yardeni

Powell On "60 Minutes"

Feb 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to make sure we all get the message he delivered at his presser last Wednesday. So he appeared in an interview on "60 Minutes" Sunday night. His simple message is that almost all the members of the FOMC expect to be cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) this year. They are happy with the progress that has been made in bringing inflation down

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 4-9

Feb 4, 2024 2 min read

Now that the latest meeting of the Federal Open Mouth Committee is over, we can expect lots of chatter from its members. They are likely to echo Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments in his presser last Wednesday. In essence, he said that the Fed is done raising the federal funds rate further, but is in no rush to lower it either. According to the 12-month federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

What Will Powell Say?

Jan 29, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell might disappoint the markets on Wednesday, when he conducts his press conference to discuss the decision of the latest FOMC meeting. He will say that economic growth has been better than expected and that inflation seems to be falling towards the Fed's 2.0% target faster than expected as well. He knows that the markets are expecting five 25bps cuts in the federal funds

Ed Yardeni

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