FEMO

Irrational Exuberance In S&P 500 FEMO?

Oct 21, 2026 5 min read paid

Are analysts' earnings expectations for the S&P 500 irrationally exuberant? So far this year, FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum, as measured by actual earnings per share) has been soaring, while FOMO (fear of missing out, as reflected in P/E multiples) has been mostly retreating. Much of that earnings optimism is concentrated in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, particularly the Semiconductors industry, where the AI

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Lots Of FEMO In Q3's Earnings Reporting Season

Oct 8, 2026 4 min read paid

I. FEMO in Q3 We have spent much of the past few months marveling at Corporate America's Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO). S&P 500 earnings per share growth approached 30% y/y in Q1 and accelerated to more than 50% in Q2, although unusually large mark-to-market investment gains boosted both figures. Even excluding those gains, earnings grew roughly 20% and 25%, respectively. Q2 also marked

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

2028 Should Be A Good Year

Oct 6, 2026 4 min read paid

I. Blue skies ahead for earnings? We are now seven years into our Roaring 2020s thesis, which remains our base case for the rest of the decade, and it has played out very well so far. When we first introduced the idea in August 2020, the prospect of another Roaring '20s sounded a bit delusional. We argued that, as in the 1920s, rapidly proliferating technologies would drive a productivity

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

In Praise Of Profits

Oct 5, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Profits, Cash Flow & Capital Spending Corporate profits are the economy's lifeblood. As Dr. Ed explains in his 2021 book, In Praise of Profits, profits are not merely a reward for economic success; they also drive the economy. Strong profits give businesses both the incentive and the financial means to expand, generating the cash flow needed to invest in capital, hire workers, and pursue new opportunities. At

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

US MARKET CALL: More Fabulous Earnings Momentum

Sep 6, 2026 4 min read paid

The Fed might or might not raise the federal funds rate this month. The war in the Middle East may or may not be over (and isn't even a war anymore, says VP JD Vance). A debt crisis may be imminent, or not. The Republicans will probably lose the House in the midterms, or maybe not. Putin may or may not invade NATO. Trump might embargo US trade

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

US MARKET CALL: Is Irrational Exuberance Driving FEMO?

Jun 20, 2026 5 min read

The stock market bubble of the late 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) on the tech-led bull market. As a result, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 25.0 in early 2000 as the forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector soared to a record high of 55.0 (chart). The

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

June Swoon?

Jun 3, 2026 4 min read

So far, the S&P 500 bottomed this year on March 30 in response to the latest Gulf War. Since then, Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) during the Q1 earnings reporting season fueled a remarkable 19.1% rally in the index, led by an amazing 44.5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (chart). Yesterday, we raised the caution flag, suggesting a possible pullback over the

Ed Yardeni

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