GDP

Revisions Show US Economy Is Still Flying High

Sep 26, 2024 3 min read

Hard luck for the hard-landers today. Today's GDP report was full of upward revisions: (1) GDP versus GDI. Some of the hard-landers expected GDP to be revised lower after a large gap between GDP (which measures output) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) (which measures economic activity via wages and profits) emerged over the past few quarters. Over time, GDI closely tracks GDP, but discrepancies tend to be revised

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

No News Is Good News

Sep 9, 2024 3 min read paid

Dr. Ed was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning at 7 a.m (see link below). Ace journalist Lisa Abramowitcz noted that during the summer, we were saying that the economy is resilient and doesn't need much monetary stimulus, which might cause a meltup in stock prices. Now we are saying that if the Fed cuts the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps instead of 25bps on September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Still Flying High

Aug 29, 2024 3 min read paid

Today was a Roaring 2020s kind of day. The DJIA jumped to yet another record high. Stock prices rose even as Nvidia dipped after beating quarterly earnings expectations (which were widely expected to beat expectations). Once again: No recession in today's economic indicators. For the past couple of years, many economists (and Jamie Dimon) have predicted that the consumer would soon be "tapped out" after exhausting

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Lots of Moving Parts

Jul 25, 2024 3 min read paid

The stock market started to rotate out of LargeCaps and into SMidCaps after June's CPI was released on July 11 (chart). It showed lower-than-expected inflation, which increased the odds that the Fed would start cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) in September and triggered the rotation because small companies tend to depend more on floating-rate debt than large ones. Easier monetary policy would also reduce the likelihood of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: July 22-26

Jul 21, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with key economic indicators, including the first read on Q2's real GDP and June's PCED inflation rate. We're expecting robust economic growth and further progress toward the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. The latest regional business survey might also confirm our forecast that the goods-producing sector is entering a rolling recovery. Here's our outlook for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Another Soft Patch

Jun 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022. It has experienced a few rolling recessions in industries like housing and retailing, which spurred soft patches in overall economic growth. The economy may be going through another soft patch, as evidenced by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which has been modestly negative since May 3 (chart). After

Ed Yardeni

Housing Still In Rolling Recession

May 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Triple Whammy

Apr 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Today started out with a triple whammy for the stock market. Meta took it on the chin, the GDP report was stagflationary, and the bond yield rose to a five-month high: (1) Meta. Yesterday afternoon after the stock market close, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's CEO, took some air out of the AI bubble by saying his company would have to spend a fortune to make this technology work and

Ed Yardeni

Sweet Economic Indicators

Mar 28, 2024 2 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators was mostly sweet. Q4's real GDP was revised from 3.2% to 3.4% (chart). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is projecting 2.1% for Q1-2024. Consumer spending was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3% despite fears that it would be depressed by the resumption of student loan payments. We disputed that notion by observing that real wages and

Ed Yardeni

50 Shades of Bright Colors

Feb 27, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking at a 3.2% annual rate, up from 2.9% on February 16. Real GDP was up 4.9% and 3.3% during Q3 and Q4 last year (chart). We also learned today that there are still plenty of jobs available in the labor market. The Consumer Confidence Index survey

Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicator Still Misleading

Feb 20, 2024 2 min read

January's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was down again by 0.4% (chart). It has been falling since December 2021. It was the 23rd straight monthly decline, just one month short of the record-long slump that began in April 2007 and ran through March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. January's Index of Coincident Economic indicators rose 0.2% to yet another record high, continuing

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Remains Bullish

Jan 25, 2024 2 min read paid

One day, there will be a recession. It just didn't happen in 2022 or 2023, as was widely predicted. The best growth rates in real GDP over this two-year period occurred during the final two quarters of 2023 at 4.9% and 3.3% (chart). Real GDP rose 2.5% during 2023 following 1.9% during 2022. (Several economists got the magnitudes right, but the signs wrong.) We

Ed Yardeni

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