Geopolitics

MARKET CALL: Trump Says Iran's Nuke Program Is 'Obliterated' . . . What's Next?

Jun 22, 2025 3 min read

On Saturday night, the US attacked Iran's three nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. President Donald Trump announced this in a social media post at 7:50 p.m. EST. In a short speech at 10:00 p.m., he said that Iran’s key nuclear sites were "completely and fully obliterated" by the strikes. He noted that there are many more sites in Iran

Ed Yardeni

Stop The World—We Want To Get Off!

May 7, 2025 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Trump 2.0 and the Financial Markets

Nov 6, 2024 4 min read paid

Donald Trump's win and the Republican sweep of the House (probably) and the Senate (certainly) is consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario. Indeed, it increases the odds that the good times will continue through the end of the decade and possibly into the 2030s. Stocks soared today on the widespread perception that Trump 2.0 will include a cut in the corporate tax rate and reductions in business

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Sweep Stakes

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

We still think that gridlock would be the most bullish outcome of the November 5 presidential and congressional elections, making it difficult for the next president to deliver on all the promises he or she made during their campaigns to win the White House. More than half of our Founding Fathers were lawyers. They designed a system of checks and balances that required lawyers to get anything done and even

Ed Yardeni

Geopolitical Hot Spots

Oct 15, 2024 3 min read paid

With the Fed in easing mode and US economic growth remaining resilient and even robust, we are still wondering what could possibly go wrong. We remain optimistic on the economic outlook and bullish on the outlook for stocks. We continue to monitor the geopolitical risks that might revive inflation and depress global growth. On Friday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that these risks are "treacherous and getting worse.

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Flinches On Widening Middle East War

Oct 1, 2024 3 min read paid

Stock prices and bond yields dipped while oil prices jumped this morning. In Washington, a senior White House official said the US is actively preparing to defend Israel against another direct missile attack by Iran. The official added that such an attack would carry severe consequences for Iran, which is under pressure to retaliate for recent Israeli military actions against Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon. The markets' initial reactions

Ed Yardeni

A Safe Haven In A World Of Troubles

Sep 23, 2024 3 min read paid

The US is a tranquil island in a sea of troubles. Geopolitical turmoil poses a threat to the continued prosperity of the US. Like Hamlet, American foreign policymakers need to answer the following question: "Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles, and by opposing end them?" In the US, the

Ed Yardeni

Geopolitical Risks Abound

Aug 26, 2024 3 min read

The world is getting more dangerous. That doesn't seem to be having any impact on the US stock market. The S&P 500 is less than 1% below its July 16 record high, while the equal-weighted version of the index is at a record high (chart). The biggest risk to the bull market in stocks is a recession, according to most strategists. We don't share

Ed Yardeni

Powell Says Economy Is Normalizing & September Rate Cut Is On The Table

Jul 31, 2024 3 min read paid

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged between 5.25%-5.50% at today's meeting, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did signal that a 25bps rate cut is highly likely at the September meeting now that the labor market is "normalizing" and inflation is cooling. The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields slid by about 6 basis points during

Ed Yardeni

Is The Bull Market Broadening Or Rotating?

Jul 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Many investors are wondering if the recent outperformance of the S&P 400 and the S&P 600 (i.e., the "SMidCaps") and the equal-weighted S&P 500 reflect a sustainable broadening of the bull market. Or is it a temporary rotation out of the Magnificent-7 into the S&P 493 and the SMidCaps? For now, we're in the camp that breadth

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: $100 Oil, $3000 Gold?

Apr 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the current decade turn out to be like the 1920s, 1970s, or 1990s? We are still assigning subjective probabilities of 60% to the Roaring 2020s (like the 1920s), 20% to a bout of irrational exuberance (like the late 1990s), and 20% to a second peak in inflation (as occurred during the 1970s). We might have to increase the odds of a 1970s-like scenario if the price of oil continues

Stephen Rybka

Loose Houthis Can Sink Ships

Jan 16, 2024 2 min read

Chevron CEO Michael Wirth warned yesterday in a CNBC interview that the Red Sea crisis could disrupt oil supplies and quickly push oil prices higher: "So much of the world's oil flows through that region that were it to be cut off, I think you could see things change very rapidly," he said. So what did the price of oil do today? It edged down (chart)

Ed Yardeni

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