Inflation

Super Macro. Not So Super Micro.

Oct 31, 2024 3 min read paid

Some of the air is coming out of the AI trade. Super Micro Computer hasn't been super recently. It fell 12% today after auditor Ernst & Young resigned due to inaccurate financial reporting, and is now down 66% over the past six months (chart). Super Micro Computer is a key vendor for building out Nvidia-based clusters of servers used for training and deploying AI models Meta and Microsoft

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Powell Is Too Dovish

Oct 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The monetary policy hawks may be coming home to roost at the Fed's November 6-7 meeting. September's CPI was hotter-than-expected, thanks to sticky services inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the other doves on the Federal Open Market Committee who worried about a weakening economy have less credibility since Friday's jobs report showed the unemployment rate fell further and payrolls reached a new

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Economic Week Ahead: October 7-11

Oct 6, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's inflation indicators should show that it continues to moderate toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Also, this week's initial unemployment claims (Thu) will be for the same week that October's payroll employment report will reflect. That should provide a sense of how Hurricane Helene (and some workers' strikes) might have impacted the next monthly jobs report. Of course, we

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

A Safe Haven In A World Of Troubles

Sep 23, 2024 3 min read paid

The US is a tranquil island in a sea of troubles. Geopolitical turmoil poses a threat to the continued prosperity of the US. Like Hamlet, American foreign policymakers need to answer the following question: "Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles, and by opposing end them?" In the US, the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Economic Week Ahead: September 23-27

Sep 22, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's economic indicators should confirm our view that the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps (rather than 25bs) last week just as the economy is rebounding from its recent soft patch. Fed Governor Chris Waller's Friday comments on CNBC suggest even previously hawkish FOMC members are now onboard Chair Jerome Powell's easing train. Meanwhile, regional manufacturing surveys (Tue & Thu)

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

CPI Triggered Stock Market Hissy Fit

Sep 11, 2024 3 min read

This morning's CPI report showed inflation continues to moderate. Nevertheless, stock prices initially fell sharply on the news. While the headline CPI was up 0.2% m/m as expected, the core rose 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%. That minor difference convinced lots of traders that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps rather than 50bps on September 18. Nevertheless, the

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

The Economic Week Ahead: September 9-13

Sep 8, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's economic indicators will be primarily focused on inflation. Barring any unexpected surprises on the inflation front, the financial markets may care more about the few labor market indicators. The FOMC entered the blackout period ahead of its September meeting yesterday, sparing markets from an extra source of volatility. We expect the combination of a normalizing hiring, inflation, and interest rate environment (a.k.a. Immaculate Disinflation)

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Bonus Content: China In 10 Charts

Aug 29, 2024 2 min read

(1) Chinese consumers are depressed. (2) Home prices are falling in China. (3) Chinese stock prices are on downward trends led by real estate stocks. (4) China's real retail sales growth is weak and exceeds the growth of industrial production. (5) The growth rates of Chinese bank loans and M2 are falling rapidly. (6) Negative growth in M1 suggests that deflationary pressures on China's producer price

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 26-30

Aug 25, 2024 3 min read

This week will include the first clues on the economy's performance in August. We're expecting to see confirmation of ongoing labor market strength in the month's consumer confidence survey (Tue) and initial unemployment claims (Thu). Some of August's improvement should be a bounce back from July's weather-depressed economic activity, which may be reflected in July's personal income release

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Powell Confirms Fed's Pivot To Rate Cuts. Doesn't Push Back Against Market Expectations.

Aug 23, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was dovish in his Jackson Hole speech today. He didn't hedge. He didn't push back against market expectations of several rate cuts ahead as we anticipated he might. He wasn't more dovish than the market, but he didn't utter any hawkish views whatsoever to alter the market's dovish expectations for several rate cuts (chart). Powell unambiguously

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Are Grocery Stores Price Gouging?

Aug 21, 2024 3 min read paid

Today, Target CEO Brian Cornell said that there's no room for price gouging in a super competitive business like retail. He was responding to accusations by Vice President Kamala Harris that grocers are inflating their prices. As the Democratic candidate for President, she proposed the first ever ban on "corporate price-gouging" in the food and grocery industry. She also pledged last Friday to come after "

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

2% Inflation: Are We There Yet?

Aug 14, 2024 2 min read paid

On long car rides, the kids in the back seat ask their parents, “Are we there yet?” Investors have been asking the same question about the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. The answer is we aren’t there yet, but we're close. At his Jackson Hole speech at the end of next week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to confirm that. The question is whether he

Ed Yardeni
YRI Team

Page 5 of 24