Inflation

Will Depressed Small Business Owners Depress The Economy?

Apr 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Stocks marked time today, while bonds rallied after the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its March survey of small business owners this morning. It was a pessimistic report overall. The small business optimism index fell to the lowest reading since December 2012 (chart). Yet, the solid performance of the economy has been at odds with the mounting pessimism of small business owners since early 2022. The employment-related series

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 8 - 12

Apr 7, 2024 2 min read

This week will feature some key inflation numbers. The March headline CPI (Wed) and PPI (Mar) will get a boost from higher gasoline prices. Their core inflation rates should continue to moderate. The week starts with the FRBNY survey of inflation expectations (Mon). The pump price of gasoline jumped last month and probably boosted inflation expectations (chart): The gasoline component of the March CPI will also reflect the jump in

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Recoveries In Manufacturing & Retailing

Apr 1, 2024 2 min read paid

The rolling recessions in manufacturing and retailing are turning into rolling recoveries. That's our conclusion based on today's relatively solid manufacturing purchasing managers report for March. The M-PMI rose to 50.3, the first reading above 50.0 since September 2022 (chart). That was the beginning of the rolling recession that hit goods producers following the post-lockdown goods buying binge that started May 2020. The new

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 1 - 5

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

The first week of the month is always jampacked with economic indicators. In addition, at least one member of the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be speaking every day. The economic indicators should confirm that the economy remains resilient in the face of pockets of weakness (a.k.a., rolling recessions). For starters, we'll see if the ISM's March M-PMI (Mon) confirms the weakness in the

Ed Yardeni

Sweet Economic Indicators

Mar 28, 2024 2 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators was mostly sweet. Q4's real GDP was revised from 3.2% to 3.4% (chart). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is projecting 2.1% for Q1-2024. Consumer spending was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3% despite fears that it would be depressed by the resumption of student loan payments. We disputed that notion by observing that real wages and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Fed Put Is Back

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

Last week, the FOMC released its latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for March. Compared to December's SEP, the committee's participants raised their 2024 median forecasts for real GDP (from 1.4% to 2.1%) and for the core PCED inflation rate (from 2.4% to 2.6%). Their median forecast for the unemployment rate was lowered a bit from 4.1% to 4.0%

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 25 - 29

Mar 24, 2024 2 min read paid

The most important economic indicator for the week ahead will be February's PCED inflation rate, which comes out on Friday. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast shows the headline and core rates rising 0.4% and 0.3% m/m, and 2.5% and 2.8% y/y. Those results would be about the same as January's, possibly raising concerns that inflation has stalled and

Ed Yardeni

The Pause That Refreshes Spooks Investors

Mar 14, 2024 2 min read paid

The vertical momentum rally that started on October 27, 2023 seems to be losing some of its momentum. Maybe. That's OK with us. We would rather see our 5400 S&P 500 target achieved by yearend, then by mid-year. But as the Rolling Stones observed, "You can't always get what you want." Slowing the pace of the advance this week have been hotter

Ed Yardeni

Core CPI Continues To Moderate

Mar 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Goldilocks Without The Bears

Feb 29, 2024 2 min read

Every now and then, the economy is widely described as being a "Goldilocks" economy. Like Goldilocks' preferred porridge, it is not too hot and not too cold, but just right and bullish for stocks. We often agreed with that assessment, but we also noted that three bears did show up at the end of this cautionary tale. Once again, the economy is just right for Professor Goldilocks,

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: February 26 - March 1

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic week ahead is jampacked with important economic indicators. The ones for January–New Home Sales (Mon), Durable Goods (Tue), and Personal Income (Thu)–were probably weakened by the month's bad weather. The February indicators should show some rebound in economic activity. February's Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City Fed regional business surveys will be out this week. They should confirm the weather-related rebounds in economic

Ed Yardeni

Not-So-Hot PPI

Feb 16, 2024 2 min read paid

Tuesday's CPI and today's PPI for January were higher than expected. Thursday's retail sales and today's housing starts for last month were both weaker than expected. The new year is starting with hotter inflation and colder economic growth. Nevertheless, these hot flashes and chills should be temporary. In our opinion, inflation continues to moderate and the economy remains resilient. The latter forecast

Ed Yardeni

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