Inflation

Market Call: Winning Streak For The Bulls

Nov 26, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that the Santa Claus rally in stock prices that started on October 27 will continue over the rest of this year. It should be driven by the realization that inflation can and is moderating without a recession. That can only happen if productivity growth is making a comeback as we expect. China's economic woes are also an important source of "immaculate disinflation" for the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 27 - December 1

Nov 26, 2023 2 min read paid

The BIG number of the week is likely to be October's personal consumption expenditures deflator (Thu). It should confirm the ongoing moderation in consumer price inflation shown by October's CPI and PPI reports (chart). The core PPI final demand for personal consumption was down to just 2.5% y/y in October. It does not include rent inflation, which is still high but heading lower. The

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Set To Vault To New Bull Market High

Nov 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 peaked this year on July 31 at 4588.96 (chart). It closed today at 4547.38, which just happens to be the resistance line connecting the July 31 high with the all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3, 2022. It could easily rise to this year's high, which is just shy of our 4600 year-end target by vaulting over the resistance line.

Ed Yardeni

A Whiff Of Deflation

Nov 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Taking A Well-Deserved Break

Nov 15, 2023 2 min read paid

Today was a day of rest in the bond and stock markets. They didn't do much. Perhaps the markets will consolidate their gains since the start of the month through the end of Thanksgiving week. Then we expect that the stock market's Santa Claus rally will resume through the end of the year. In our opinion, the consensus outlook has turned much less pessimistic so far

Ed Yardeni

Another Happy Day For Bond & Stock Investors

Nov 14, 2023 2 min read paid

As inflation continues to descend, bond and stock prices are ascending. Today's lower-than-expected CPI inflation report confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate. So the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.44%, boosting the valuation multiples of stocks. The S&P 500 is now up 9.2% above its recent correction low on October 27 (chart). Our yearend target of 4600 for the index could be

Ed Yardeni

Pumping More Oil & Less Gasoline

Nov 13, 2023 2 min read

Fed officials often have said that they want to make sure that inflation is “well anchored.” In other words, they want to see that inflationary expectations are low. So it was a bit unsettling that Friday’s release of the consumer sentiment survey for the first half of November showed the one-year expected inflation rate jumped from 3.2% in September to 4.2% in October and 4.4% in

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 13 - 17

Nov 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The third week of the month tends to be action packed with key economic indicators. This week's batch should confirm that inflation remains on a moderating trend and that the economy continues to grow albeit at a slower pace than during Q3. Unfortunately, on Monday, we will be reminded that this Goldilocks scenario has at least one big flaw, i.e., the widening federal deficit. In addition, we

Ed Yardeni

Powell Is Still Calling The Shots

Nov 9, 2023 2 min read paid

The bid-to-cover ratio is the dollar value of bids compared with the dollar value of debt offered. Falling bid-to-cover ratios indicate less robust interest from investors. Yields climbed today after a weak auction of $24 billion in 30-year Treasuries with demand for the debt at 2.24 times the bonds on sale (chart). That helped to push stock prices lower today, snapping the longest winning streaks for the Nasdaq and

Ed Yardeni

Oil's Slippery Slope

Nov 7, 2023 2 min read paid

The NYMEX nearby futures price of a barrel of crude oil peaked this year at $93.68 on September 27. Notwithstanding the war that started between Israel and Hamas on October 7, the price is down $16.27 from that peak to $77.42. That’s even though Saudi Arabia and Russia reduced their exports during the summer and maintained their cuts through yearend. One reason for this development is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Productivity Is Making A Comeback!

Nov 2, 2023 2 min read

Today's bond and stock rallies was boosted by Q3's Productivity and Costs report released at 8:30 am. It confirms our view that strong economic growth isn't inflationary if it is driven by productivity growth. Fed officials have been trying to slow the economy down to subdue inflation. Our analysis suggests that they should allow productivity-led growth to flourish because it is the main

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 29 - November 3

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors would clearly like to see peace on earth and goodwill towards all people. But that ain't happening anytime soon. They would also like to see the US economy slow so that inflation will fall faster and the Fed will turn less hawkish. That ain't likely to happen this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably be as hawkish at his presser on Wednesday, following the

Ed Yardeni

Page 9 of 23