JOLTS

Is The Fed Put Back?

Jun 4, 2024 3 min read paid

The financial markets seem to believe that the Fed Put is back. The recent batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators raised the number of expected 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) from 2 to 3 over the next 12 months (chart). That's according to the basis-point spread between the 12-month FFR futures and the actual FFR divided by 25bps. Investors must be confident that inflation is getting

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Soft Landing Remains In Play and Bullish

Dec 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is taking a rest just north of 4550 and south of 4600. Stock investors are waiting for November's jobs report on Friday to decide what to do next. Meanwhile, bond investors aren't waiting to buy more bonds. They liked the latest batch of economic indicators and drove the 10-year Treasury bond yield below 4.25%. Here is a brief overview of

Ed Yardeni

Halloween Is Over. Is Santa Here Already?

Nov 1, 2023 2 min read paid

It's possible that the S&P 500 bottomed today. Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach appeared on CNBC following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser and opined that the entire yield curve looked attractive, at least for a trade. We agree. He also observed that the S&P 500 might have found support at its uptrend line connecting the lows of March 23, 2020 and October 12,

Ed Yardeni

Will Powell Sound More Dovish On Wednesday?

Oct 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The short answer is: We doubt it. It's unlikely that his views on the economy and monetary policy have changed much since his hawkish interview on October 19 at the Economic Club of New York. So he is likely to maintain the same tone at his presser on Wednesday following the latest FOMC meeting. The message should remain the same. Monetary policy will have to remain restrictive until

Ed Yardeni

Hooray! Job Openings & Quits Fall

Aug 29, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market rallied on Friday, Monday, and today despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The S&P 500 rose back above its 50-day moving average (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.12% today. The rallies in both stocks and bonds received a bullish jolt from June’s JOLTS report today showing fewer job openings and quits than expected

Ed Yardeni

Two Known Knowns About the Economy

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors are confused: Is the economy strong or is it weak? The answer is "Yes." The labor market is strong, but the manufacturing side of the economy is weak. We've all known that for a while. Today's indicators confirmed what we know. On the weak side today was the ISM Chicago Business Survey as evidenced by the drop in its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Ed Yardeni