Labor Market

US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade

Jul 21, 2026 4 min read paid

As confetti and red-and-yellow streamers rained down on the roaring crowd, the final whistle blew, and Spain lifted the World Cup trophy after a thrilling 1:0 victory over Argentina. The games are over. The fans are heading home, and an important economic tailwind is beginning to fade. According to Bank of America, the FIFA World Cup generated roughly $20 billion in economic activity across the United States,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Well-Balanced US Labor Market

Jun 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock prices of ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup sold off sharply last year as hiring cooled. Employers froze their headcounts as they assessed the impacts of Trump's tariffs and of AI technologies on their businesses (chart). On May 8, we wrote that the labor market was showing early signs of improvement and that employment-related stocks may have bottomed. So far, so good. Employers now seem to have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JUNE 1-5

May 30, 2026 4 min read

The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580.05. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) and falling oil prices boosted stock prices. Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel, the lowest weekly close since April 17. Axios reports that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire-extension deal, pending President Trump's approval. The odds that the US blockade of the

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Inflating, But Not Stagnating

May 28, 2026 5 min read paid

The three major US stock market price indexes (i.e., the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DJIA) rose to record highs again today. So did the Russell 2000. Leading the way higher were technology stocks. Driving stock prices higher was a report that the US and Iran have "mostly agreed" to extend their ceasefire by 60 days. The market ignored a warning from ExxonMobil that oil inventories

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

CPI Heats Up But, Unlike 2021-22, Wages Remain Cool

May 12, 2026 4 min read paid

During 2021 and 2022, a wage-price spiral was exacerbated by widespread global supply chain disruptions and a spike in oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (charts). This time, the war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike. Some supply chains have been disrupted. But a wage-price spiral is less likely. The labor market is in equilibrium this time (chart). In 2021-22,

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48.

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The Roaring 2020s Express Train

Apr 30, 2026 5 min read

Why is the stock market continuing to make new highs? It's doing so because corporate earnings are doing the same, as the economy continues to speed along without stopping for a recession. The latest batch of data certainly drove the stock market higher today, confirming that we are still riding the rails on the Roaring 2020s Express. Nothing seems to stop or derail this train. (1) GDP. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market Highs Confirm US Economy Is A Winner

Apr 16, 2026 4 min read paid

The message from the stock market is clear: The US economy is passing another stress test. Both domestic and foreign investors have shifted their attention from the risks of military escalation in the Middle East back to the remarkably consistent resilience of the US economy. The results are all-time highs in equities and a fresh wave of buying by both domestic and foreign investors. Even Michael Burry is reportedly

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

Mar 29, 2026 4 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the

Toby Hearst
Ed Yardeni

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

Oct 1, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: "We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6 at an intraday low of 666. This is a number commonly associated with the Devil. . . . The latest relief rally was sparked by lots of good

Ed Yardeni

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Sep 11, 2025 3 min read members

Following yesterday's cooler-than-expected PPI and today's as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenting votes among voting members. Following today's jump in last week's initial unemployment claims, meeting participants might consider a 50-basis-point cut, but we doubt that they will opt for

Ed Yardeni

Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claims

Aug 14, 2025 2 min read paid

We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-

Ed Yardeni

Page 1 of 3