Labor Market

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 4-8

May 3, 2026 4 min read

The week ahead is chock-full of labor market indicators. In addition, nine Talking Fed Heads on the Federal Open Mouth Committee are on the speaking circuit, with Williams, Bowman, and Goolsbee coming up twice. Despite the elevated oil prices, the stock market continues to levitate to new highs. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude hit $110.10 intraweek and closed on Friday at $102.48. Brent

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

The Roaring 2020s Express Train

Apr 30, 2026 5 min read

Why is the stock market continuing to make new highs? It's doing so because corporate earnings are doing the same, as the economy continues to speed along without stopping for a recession. The latest batch of data certainly drove the stock market higher today, confirming that we are still riding the rails on the Roaring 2020s Express. Nothing seems to stop or derail this train. (1) GDP. The

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Stock Market Highs Confirm US Economy Is A Winner

Apr 16, 2026 4 min read paid

The message from the stock market is clear: The US economy is passing another stress test. Both domestic and foreign investors have shifted their attention from the risks of military escalation in the Middle East back to the remarkably consistent resilience of the US economy. The results are all-time highs in equities and a fresh wave of buying by both domestic and foreign investors. Even Michael Burry is reportedly buying

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

Mar 29, 2026 4 min read

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the

Toby Hearst
Ed Yardeni

Another Bad JOLTS For Job Market

Oct 1, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) closed today at 666 (chart). I have fond memories of that number. I wrote on March 16, 2009: "We’ve been to Hades and back. The S&P 500 bottomed last week on March 6 at an intraday low of 666. This is a number commonly associated with the Devil. . . . The latest relief rally was sparked by lots of good

Ed Yardeni

25 Or 50, To Be Or Not To Be?

Sep 11, 2025 3 min read members

Following yesterday's cooler-than-expected PPI and today's as-expected CPI, expectations are that the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with no dissenting votes among voting members. Following today's jump in last week's initial unemployment claims, meeting participants might consider a 50-basis-point cut, but we doubt that they will opt for that, as the majority would

Ed Yardeni

Hot PPI Inflation & Cold Jobless Claims

Aug 14, 2025 2 min read paid

We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-done in 2025&

Ed Yardeni

Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

Aug 7, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump on Thursday nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump said Miran will serve in the role until January 31, 2026, while he continues a search for a permanent replacement. The Senate will probably confirm his nomination quickly and before the September meeting of the FOMC. If so, then there could be at least

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yield Rises, Ignoring Weak ADP Payrolls Report

Jul 2, 2025 3 min read

The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose yesterday and today on mostly upbeat employment indicators. Yesterday, the JOLTS report came in stronger than expected. In addition, initial unemployment claims edged down, according to yesterday's report. Today, the Challenger report showed a drop in layoffs. The bond market chose to tune out the uptick in continuing unemployment claims in yesterday's report, and it also ignored today's

Ed Yardeni

More Bad News Caused By Trump Turmoil 2.0

Apr 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to 4.03% as recession fears outweigh inflation fears. Yesterday's Liberation Day festivities in the Rose Garden set off a freefall in stock prices on increasing fears

Ed Yardeni

Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni

US Jobs Market: Onwards & Upwards

Dec 3, 2024 2 min read paid

We've contended all year that the labor market was normalizing from the unsustainable pace of hiring during the pandemic. We disagreed with the view that it was weakening. Now we are turning more upbeat about the outlook for employment. Our bet is that the animal spirits unleased by Trump 2.0 will soon be reflected in more job openings and a faster pace of hiring. Today's

Ed Yardeni

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