Purchasing Managers

Flocking Doves Tomorrow?

Sep 4, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices rose again today as the 10-year bond yield fell. Investors anticipate that tomorrow's employment report for August will be weak. If so, then it is a sure bet that the FOMC's majority will turn dovish and will vote to cut the federal funds rate on September 17. Indeed, the odds are up to 99.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Stock investors must

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 2 - 5

Sep 1, 2025 3 min read

This week is chock-a-block with data reports, all building up to Friday's pivotal employment report. The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July's surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June. It could determine whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceeds with a rate cut at its September 16-17 policy meeting. The July jobs data

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

July's Purchasing Managers Surveys Are Mixed

Aug 5, 2025 2 min read

The stock and bond markets didn't respond much to the national survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers this morning, even though it was on the weak side (chart). The overall NM-PMI, which the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) compiles, edged down to 50.1, just above the expansion/contraction line at 50.0. The production component was solid at 52.6. But the employment component fell to 46.4.

Ed Yardeni

Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar

Jul 1, 2025 4 min read paid

There is method to President Donald Trump's madness regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been hammering Powell almost daily recently because doing so is very effectively hammering the foreign-exchange value of the dollar (chart). Trump wants a weaker dollar to boost US exports and depress US imports. He has said that he favored a weaker dollar many times in the past, but now he has found a

Ed Yardeni

He Said, Xi Said

Jun 5, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump said today that he had a "very good talk" with China's President Xi Jinping for an hour and a half mostly about trade. They also agreed to visit one another. The financial markets yawned. Stock, bond, currency, and commodity traders have become jaded about Trump's tumultuous trade dealmaking. Even rising concerns about a shortage of Chinese rare earth minerals (needed by

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Signals

Jun 2, 2025 3 min read

So is the economy slowing or speeding up? Yes, it is doing both according to today's batch of economic indicators. No wonder that neither stocks nor bonds did much today. The calm in the stock market was notable given that President Donald Trump was Tariff Man again on Friday, blasting China for not abiding by the temporary and partial tariff truce with the US and doubling the tariff

Ed Yardeni

A Seinfeld Kinda Day: Nothing Really Happened

May 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Not much happened today in either the stock market or the bond market. Dull days are good for a change. The markets are no longer responding to every comment coming out of the White House. On Sunday, President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell "a total stiff." But he also said that he will not remove the Fed Chair. Today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent observed, "The

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 5–9

May 4, 2025 3 min read

US employers are confounding the naysayers–and complicating the Federal Reserve's decision this week. It's no secret that President Donald Trump wants the Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates at its May 6-7 meeting. Yet the economy isn't cooperating, as companies added a robust 177,000 jobs in April (chart). US average hourly earnings, meanwhile, are up 3.8% over the past

Ed Yardeni

Year Of The Snake

May 2, 2025 3 min read

Stock prices soared today on a better-than-expected April US employment report and news that China is evaluating US overtures to start trade negotiations. In the Chinese zodiac, 2025 is the Year of the Snake. It began on January 29, 2025. It is shaping up to be a bad year for China's economy. We've been thinking that the Chinese are less likely to blink than President Donald

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Is Still Resilient, But Tariffs Pose Risks

Mar 20, 2025 3 min read

Today's batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest that economic growth outside of the US is increasingly likely to improve while downside risks to US growth are rising. As a result, US stock valuation multiples are

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

Jan 7, 2025 3 min read paid

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped. That aligned with the recent rise in measures of business and consumer confidence. So why did stocks turn lower today? The answer lies with the bond market. The prices-paid index in the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI jumped from 58.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Let The Good Times Roll

Dec 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Salesforce beat Q3 earnings expectations today, but that's not what drove the company's shares 11% higher. CEO Marc Benioff did that by touting the company's AI-powered chatbots on today's quarterly earnings call. He sparked renewed AI optimism that lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new record highs. AI differs from the dotcom mania of the late 1990s. It is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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