Public Regional Business Surveys Bearish for New Orders Jun 27, 2022 1 min read The economy is teetering. After the release of durable goods orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model showed Q2 real GDP rising by a paltry 0.3% (saar), but up from 0.0% previously. Nondefense capital goods orders, a measure of capital spending, rose at a better-than-expected pace of 0.5% m/m (9.8% y/y) during May to yet another record high. However, some of Ed Yardeni
Paid The Best Cure for High Commodity Prices Jun 20, 2022 1 min read paid In the commodity pits, traders often say: "The best cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices." That's because when a commodity price soars, it depresses demand for the commodity and stimulates the supply of it. History shows that an even better cure for high commodity prices is a recession. During the late phase of economic expansions, the economy tends to boom. That drives up Ed Yardeni
Paid Two Regional Business Surveys Showing More Stagflation In June Jun 16, 2022 2 min read paid Two regional business surveys, conducted by five of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, are now available for the New York and Philadelphia districts through June. These two always come out before the other three for Kansas City, Richmond, and Dallas. They also tend to reflect the average final results of all five surveys. The averages of both the two surveys and all five of them closely track the national manufacturing Ed Yardeni
Public Uncle Sam Isn’t Santa Claus Jun 12, 2022 1 min read Following Friday’s CPI shocker, the financial media seem to have concluded that the Fed will have no choice but to raise the federal funds rate faster than planned to bring inflation down—causing a recession. The Fed is now expected to raise the federal funds rate on Wednesday by 75bps rather than 50bps. The two-year Treasury note soared 23bps on Friday to 3.06%, implying investor expectations that the Ed Yardeni
