Retail Sales

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 12–16

Jan 11, 2026 3 min read

If economists did weather reports, this week's forecast would call for a data blizzard. Yet visibility should improve as the markets get much-anticipated readings on inflation, retail sales, and industrial production ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting on January 28. Few economists expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to ease monetary policy again later this month.

Ed Yardeni

Mistletoe Magic And The S&P 500 In 2026

Dec 24, 2025 3 min read

Mistletoe is relevant to several cultures. In the advent of the Christian era, mistletoe in the Western world became associated with Christmas as a decoration under which lovers are expected to kiss, as well as with protection from witches and demons. Let's hope its magic lasts into 2026 through next Christmas. The consensus among Wall Street investment strategists is that the magic will last. According to Bloomberg, their

Ed Yardeni

US Economy Remains On Growth Track

Dec 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy is growing despite anemic payroll employment gains. That can only happen if productivity growth accelerates and raises real wages enough to offset the weakness in employment. The question is whether productivity growth will continue to do so. It will in our Roaring 2020s scenario. The risk is that stronger real wages don't more than offset weaker employment, which would depress personal income and consumption. This is

Ed Yardeni

Cornucopia of Data

Nov 27, 2025 4 min read

We are thankful for your interest in our research. Happy Thanksgiving! Now that the government shutdown is over, there is plenty of data again with which to assess the economy's performance. On balance, GDP growth remains robust despite lackluster labor market indicators. Consumers are consuming. Inflation is subdued just below 3.0%. The federal deficit remains enormous. Federal tax receipts confirm the economy is growing. Nevertheless, the Fed,

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: November 24-28

Nov 23, 2025 3 min read

During this holiday-shortened week, investors will receive a cornucopia of data now that the government is open again. Some of the data will be a bit stale. But they should indicate how Q3 ended for the economy. September's retail sales report (Tue) should show a solid increase, with strength in spending by higher-income shoppers more than offsetting the weakness in spending by lower-income workers. This dichotomy is supported

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

Economy Still Moving Forward

Oct 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The government shutdown continues to shut off the supply of many economic indicators. Tomorrow's CPI inflation rate for September is an exception. It is widely expected to remain stuck at 3.0% on a y/y basis. Based on a few conversations with friends about their businesses, we won't be surprised if the CPI is hotter than that, since President Donald Trump's tariffs may

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 11 - 15

Aug 10, 2025 3 min read

This is a week loaded with economic data releases that have the potential to shed light on the health of the US economy and change minds at the Federal Reserve—none more so, perhaps, than inflation. While the CPI and PPI are always of interest, the July releases come in the aftermath of jobs data that increased the prospect of interest rate cuts. In this context, retail sales data for

Ed Yardeni

Trump Dealing ... Consumers Consuming ... Employers Employing

Jul 17, 2025 4 min read paid

Liberation Day II is coming on August 1. President Donald Trump has stated that it won't be postponed, unlike Liberation Day I, which was initially scheduled for April 2 but was postponed to July 9 and then to August 1. According to a July 10 Reuters report, Trump is considering raising his 10% base tariff to 15% or 20% on most trading partners by that deadline. That would

Ed Yardeni

Week Ahead: July 14 - 18

Jul 13, 2025 4 min read

This will be a jampacked week for economic indicators and big banks' Q2 earnings reports. We are relatively optimistic about the latter, which should be bullish for the stock market. The inflation news may show some signs of tariff-related warming. Consumer-related data are likely to be be mixed. The White House will probably keep tariffs and the Fed in the news on a daily basis. On balance, we expect

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

"UNCONDITONAL SURRENDER"

Jun 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market held up remarkably well today considering that President Donald Trump abruptly left the Group of Seven meeting in the Canadian Rockies this morning. On his way home, he warned Tehran's residents to get out of town immediately. He also warned Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that he is an "easy target" and "our patience is wearing thin." In a subsequent post,

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Strongest Buy Signal Ever?

Apr 24, 2025 3 min read paid

On Sunday (April 20), we observed that The Economist had just featured three consecutive very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the US economy. Make that four consecutive bearish cover stories, with this week's magazine showing an eagle battered by Trump's first 100 days (image). We

Ed Yardeni

Is The US In A Recession?

Apr 16, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down sharply this afternoon. Losses started in the morning due to more Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) news. Nvidia's disclosure that the US government's new controls on its semiconductor exports to China would result in a $5.5 billion loss dragged down its shares and major indexes. Losses extended in the afternoon after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's prepared remarks

Ed Yardeni

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