S&P 500

Market Call: The Bull Market's Alleged Vulnerabilities

Jul 7, 2024 2 min read

The stock market's bull run since October 12, 2022 has raised some concerns lately. According to the naysayers, earnings growth expectations may be too high because there are mounting signs of an economic slowdown that might lead to an economic recession. The breadth of the stock market rally continues to narrow, which may be confirming that the underlying fundamental support for the bull market is narrowing. If the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Momentum Meltup, Blowoff Top, Or Both?

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer price disinflation is raising expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is fueling a meltup in stock prices. This morning on CBS' "Face the Nation," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that a rate cut by year-end is a “reasonable prediction.” On Friday, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 4.25% to 4.20%. The technical picture is signaling that it might continue to fall

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bonds Weighing On Stocks

May 29, 2024 2 min read paid

Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that he wants to see "many more months of positive inflation data" before he's ready to cut rates. He also didn't rule out a hike. Fixed-income investors are starting to realize that this is the new party line from the Fed. Earlier this year, we argued that there was no reason for the Fed to rush

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: From Dow 40,000 To Infinity & Beyond

May 19, 2024 3 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 on Friday for the first time. It's on track to rise 50% to 60,000 by 2030, in our opinion (chart). The S&P 500 should rise by as much to 8000. That target could be achieved with a forward P/E of 20 and forward earnings at $400 per share, up 60% from an estimated $250 per

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

No Landing

Apr 15, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Performance Derby

Mar 25, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock market rally should continue to broaden as investors realize that the MegaCap-8 are not bulletproof. Tesla has competitors such as China's BYD , which on Monday lowered the starting price of its Seal electric sedan to just under $25,000. Last week, on Thursday, the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple. Also recently, US antitrust officials filed antimonopoly lawsuits against Amazon, Google and Meta Platforms.

Ed Yardeni

Yikes: Everyone Is Bullish!

Mar 13, 2024 2 min read

During the week of October 11, 2022, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) fell to a cyclical low of 0.57 (chart). The previous bear market bottomed the next day on October 12, 2022. The BBR reading back then was the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis. We turned bullish in early November figuring that sentiment was much too bearish and that the most widely expected recession of all

Ed Yardeni

Core CPI Continues To Moderate

Mar 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bull Market Gets No Respect

Feb 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Like comedian Rodney Dangerfield, the S&P 500 bull market gets no respect. Dangerfield often bemoaned that he got no respect. His jokes included, "I went to a freak show and they let me in for nothing." The S&P 500 is up 42.3% since the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022, yet its detractors continue to observe that it has been

Ed Yardeni

Bull Chasers

Feb 12, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is up 40.5% since the start of the current bull market on October 12, 2022 (chart). Along the way, there was a 10.3% correction from July 31 to October 27, 2023. Since then, it has been a 22.1% meltup through Friday’s close. Furthermore, the Wilshire 5000 market capitalization is up $14 trillion since October 14, 2022 and $9.3 trillion since

Ed Yardeni

What Will Powell Say?

Jan 29, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell might disappoint the markets on Wednesday, when he conducts his press conference to discuss the decision of the latest FOMC meeting. He will say that economic growth has been better than expected and that inflation seems to be falling towards the Fed's 2.0% target faster than expected as well. He knows that the markets are expecting five 25bps cuts in the federal funds

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: S&P 500/400/600 Are Flying With The Blue Angels

Jan 15, 2024 2 min read paid

Our Blue Angels framework allows us to visualize the stock market equation P = P/E * E in one chart, where P is the stock price index, E is the forward earnings of the index, and P/E is the forward valuation multiple. Forward earnings is the time-weighted average of analysts' consensus earnings expectations for the current year and the coming year. Our analysis of the Blue Angels is that

Ed Yardeni

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