S&P 500

From Trade Wars To Trade Deals

May 8, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump will need to declare victories in his trade wars with multiple countries around the world sooner rather than later. He and his fellow Republicans have to avoid a recession caused by his tariff wars. Otherwise, they risk losing their thin majorities in both houses of Congress later in 2026. In addition, court cases are piling up that challenge the President’s legal authority to declare a crisis

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: The Best Trump Trade

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let's call it the "Trump Thump." We aren't convinced that the correction is over despite Friday's rally and extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. In

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Still In Choppy Waters Or Going Over A Waterfall?

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Our answer to the title's question is that the stock market is still in choppy waters. Admittedly, it felt more like a waterfall on Thursday and Friday. However, the S&P 500 was down only 2.1% and that was from a record high on Wednesday (chart). Our hunch is that sentiment turned very bearish very quickly at the end of last week because investors aren'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Animal Spirits Are Back & Boosting the Roaring 2020s! Fueling A Meltup Too?

Nov 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Just after Donald Trump won the presidential race on November 8, 2016, we observed that the economy and stock market were charged up with "animal spirits," a term coined by John Maynard Keynes meaning spontaneous optimism. Animal spirits are back now that Trump won a second term on November 5 and in a clean sweep if the Republicans win the House, which seems likely. The stock market jumped

Ed Yardeni

Anatomy of a Meltup

Oct 20, 2024 3 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Happy Second Birthday To The Young Bull!

Oct 13, 2024 2 min read

The S&P 500's latest bull market turned two-years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those fears lingered through October 4 of this year, when a stronger-than-expected employment report once again confirmed that the young bull correctly discounted that inflation

Ed Yardeni

In 10 Charts: History & Future of DJIA and S&P 500

Oct 3, 2024 3 min read paid

(1) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on course to hit 60,000 by the end of the decade. (2) The S&P 500 may be on course to rise above 8000 by the end of the decade. (3) The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s. EPS could

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: October Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

We asked the very same question at the start of September, and were hard pressed to come up with an answer. We concluded: "So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher. We are still expecting a yearend rally to 5800 on the S&P 500, but it could already be underway." The S&P 500 rose 1.6% during September

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Carry-Trade Unwind Part II

Sep 8, 2024 3 min read paid

Something doesn't make sense. Why are stock prices falling when the Fed is set to lower interest rates to avert a recession and to stop the unemployment rate from rising by boosting economic growth? We had a glimpse of the answer in early August: The carry trade is still unwinding. Expectations that the Fed will lower our interest rates, while the Bank of Japan raises their interest rates

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 2, 2024 3 min read paid

September has a history of being the worst month of the year for the stock market (chart). It's hard to imagine that it will be a bad one this year since the Fed is widely expected to start its latest monetary easing cycle on September 18 with a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR). In addition, the FOMC will release its latest Summary of Economic Projections

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bungee Jump

Aug 18, 2024 3 min read

Last week's economic data confirmed that consumers are still consuming, the labor market is fine, small business owners are more optimistic, and inflation is still moderating. On Friday, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate that the economy is performing well and that inflation is getting closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. He is likely to support market expectations that

Ed Yardeni

Meltup!

Jul 10, 2024 3 min read paid

We are raising our yearend target for the S&P 500 to 5800 from 5400. We are still targeting 8000 by the end of the decade. The stock market seems to be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected. We've been among the most bullish investment strategists since November 2022, but not bullish enough. The bull market might continue to achieve our targets ahead of

Ed Yardeni

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