S&P 500

Market Call: Refreshing Pause For Bulls & Reindeer

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The federal funds rate futures market is anticipating two 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate over the next 12 months (chart). That makes sense to us and is consistent with the September FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. More rate cuts could occur if a recession is coming our way in 2024, but that's not our forecast. We still think that the 10-year Treasury bond yield

Stephen Rybka

Another Happy Day For Bond & Stock Investors

Nov 14, 2023 2 min read paid

As inflation continues to descend, bond and stock prices are ascending. Today's lower-than-expected CPI inflation report confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate. So the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.44%, boosting the valuation multiples of stocks. The S&P 500 is now up 9.2% above its recent correction low on October 27 (chart). Our yearend target of 4600 for the index could be

Ed Yardeni

Weakening Global Economic Growth Is A Mixed Bowl Of Nuts

Nov 8, 2023 2 min read paid

We are still aiming for 4600 on the S&P 500 before the end of this year. That's only a 5.0% increase from today's close. Heck, the S&P 500 was up 5.9% just last week. However, that was clearly a combination of a short-covering rally in both the bond and stock markets. It was also a buying panic in the bond

Ed Yardeni

Everything Is OK Except For...

Oct 24, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway and going well with Microsoft delivering a big upside earnings surprise after today's close. We still expect that S&P 500 earnings per share rose to a record high during the quarter. That's confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings (chart). Inflation continues to moderate as confirmed by today's Richmond Fed regional business survey'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Wild Bunch

Oct 1, 2023 3 min read

Just after the S&P 500 nearly hit our year-end target of 4600 ahead of schedule on July 31, we concluded that the index might fall to its 200-day moving average, which is currently around 4200. It could easily do so during October since it closed at 4288 on Friday. Then we see a yearend Santa Claus rally back to 4600, or close to that level. That's

Ed Yardeni

Talking Heads Talk Stocks Down

Sep 26, 2023 2 min read paid

We were surprised that stock prices didn't drop yesterday along with bond prices. So we aren't surprised to see stock prices down today. Contributing to the selloff was JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned interest rates may need to rise further to subdue inflation. In an interview with The Times of India, he said that the Fed might have to raise the federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

Strikes and Shutdowns and Bond Yields, Oh My!

Sep 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market held up surprisingly well today under the circumstances: The UAW strike is shutting down more auto production. The federal government is heading toward a shutdown on October 1. Moody’s Investors Service warned in a note today that a US government shutdown would be a “credit negative” event for the country. The 10-year Treasury yield surged by more than 10bps to 4.55%, the highest since 2007

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Powell Says Be Careful

Sep 24, 2023 2 min read paid

In his presser last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned "careful" and "carefully" 16 times mostly to describe how the Fed will proceed from here. That sounds like good advice for investors right now. When he was asked about the impact of "external factors" on Fed policy and the economy, he provided a list of five troublesome developments: the UAW strike, a possible government

Ed Yardeni

Bond Yield Climbs to 4.50% As Yield Curve Is Disinverting.

Sep 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The Fed's hawkish pause, announced on Wednesday afternoon, has lifted the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.50% this evening. We think it might consolidate here for a while consistent with our view that the yield has normalized back to where it was from 2003-2007, i.e., before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Back then, the 10-year TIPS yield and the expected inflation spread hovered around 2.00%

Ed Yardeni

Action Packed Week

Sep 14, 2023 2 min read paid

It certainly has been an action-packed week so far, and there is still Friday to go. Today, the ECB raised its official interest rates by 25bps; the People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 basis points; and, the price of oil continued to increase. Yesterday's headline CPI and today's headline PPI inflation rates for August were boosted by

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Waiting For The Verdict

Sep 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been marking time recently around its 50-day moving average waiting for a verdict (chart). The jury is no longer debating whether the economy is falling into a recession. The issue has been resolved. The economy is growing. But now the debate is whether it is growing too strongly so that inflation stops moderating. Or will it slow down so that inflation can continue to

Ed Yardeni

What Could Go Wrong In September?

Sep 5, 2023 3 min read paid

On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. It is widely viewed as a rotten month for stocks, which has been true during 55% of Septembers since 1928. But those selloffs have often turned out to be good opportunities to pick fallen stocks just in time for a yearend Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 fell today back towards its 50-day moving average

Ed Yardeni

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