Surveys

Labor Market Tight. Goods Market Not So.

Feb 28, 2023 1 min read paid

The Fed would like to see fewer job openings to help moderate wage inflation. The time series is reported in the JOLTS report. January's update comes out March 8. It could jolt the Fed into remaining hawkish. That's because it is highly correlated with the The Conference Board's "jobs plentiful" series that came out today and that's been up two

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Jan. 30 - Feb. 3

Jan 29, 2023 1 min read paid

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds are the committee will vote for a 25bps federal funds rate hike to 4.50%-4.75%. Odds are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Wednesday afternoon presser will continue to sound hawkish even though economic growth is slowing and inflation is moderating. This week will also be jampacked with employment indicators. January's Consumer Confidence (Tue) is likely to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, January 17-20

Jan 16, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that more of the Fed's talking heads will be talking this week about monetary policy perhaps with a bit less agreement of what needs to be done next. They only have three days to do so before the FOMC blackout period begins. The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season continues this week. More important than the quarter's results will be managements' guidance for this

Ed Yardeni

Technicals Remain Bullish

Dec 8, 2022 1 min read

Jitters about a consumer-led recession over the past few days pushed the CBOE equities Put/Call Ratio up to 1.46 yesterday (chart). That's a very elevated reading and suggests that there is too much pessimism. It favors a yearend rally rather than a yearend crash. There is also still lots of bearishness in Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio. It rose to 1.34 this past week

Ed Yardeni

Regional Surveys Suggest Weak M-PMI

Oct 31, 2022 1 min read

Bonds and stocks might rally tomorrow if the M-PMI is as weak as suggested by the regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. The average of the five composite indexes dropped deeper into negative territory during October (chart). The average of the new orders indexes remained near recent negative readings, while the average for the employment indexes remained solidly positive. All three are

Ed Yardeni

Another Weak Regional Business Survey

Oct 27, 2022 1 min read Featured

With the exception of the 2.6% (saar) increase in Q3's real GDP, the other more forward-looking economic indicators released today were on the weak side. That might explain why the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields eased a bit this morning. In the stock market, some of the mega money that is coming out of the MegaCap-8 today is going into the DJIA-30.

Ed Yardeni

NY Fed Survey Shows Easing Pricing Pressures

Jul 19, 2022 1 min read

The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations are down even more for both indexes (charts below). We will be closely examining the July business surveys conducted by four other Federal Reserve bank districts for confirmation that inflationary pressures are abating nationally. Philly will be released on Thursday. Dallas, Richmond, and KC will be

Ed Yardeni

Is the Labor Shortage Depressing the Economy?

Jul 6, 2022 1 min read paid

Might this be the first economic downturn attributable to a labor shortage? That shortage is weighing on output. It is also driving up wages, but the resulting wage-price spiral is eroding consumers' purchasing power as prices are rising as fast as wages. The solution is productivity, but it remained very weak during H1-2022. Consider the following: (1) Today's JOLTS report showed 11.3 million job

Ed Yardeni

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