The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds are the committee will vote for a 25bps federal funds rate hike to 4.50%-4.75%. Odds are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Wednesday afternoon presser will continue to sound hawkish even though economic growth is slowing and inflation is moderating.
This week will also be jampacked with employment indicators. January's Consumer Confidence (Tue) is likely to be up because jobs remain relatively plentiful and wages are rising faster than prices. December's JOLTS report (Wed) should jolt FOMC members to vote for a 25bps rather than a 50bps rate hike if job openings fall sharply as they did in December's NFIB small business survey (chart). January's ADP (Wed) and BLS (Fri) employment reports should show solid payroll gains given that jobless claims remain very low. Nevertheless, January's auto sales (Wed) should remain lackluster as a result of tighter auto loan standards.
