Technicals

MARKET CALL: ‘Mission Control, We Have Thrust’

May 4, 2025 4 min read paid

Today, we are lowering our subjective odds of a recession from 45% to 35% following last week's news that China and the US might be moving toward starting trade negotiations. We also remain impressed with the resilience of the US economy following Friday's employment report. However, we are not raising our 6000 year-end target for the S&P 500. Our QuickTakes dated April 24 was

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Death Cross Versus Zweig Breadth Thrust

Apr 27, 2025 4 min read

Only a few days ago, some stock-market-chart watchers warned that Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) set up a bearish Death Cross formation in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. That occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average (chart). The formation historically has signaled declines ahead, but not all Death Crosses have preceded major downturns. Now some market watchers are seeing a bullish

Ed Yardeni

MARKET CALL: Contrarian Indicators Showing Too Many Bears

Apr 20, 2025 4 min read paid

We don't recall this ever happening before. During the past three weeks, The Economist has featured three very bearish cover stories suggesting that the dollar might be on the verge of collapse and that so might the US stock and bond markets along with the global economy (chart). Contrarians of the world, unite! As extreme bearishness pervades world markets, the old maxim “It’s always darkest before the

Ed Yardeni

Looking For A Stock Market Bottom In Fundamentals & Technicals

Apr 7, 2025 3 min read paid

After the stock market crashed on Thursday and Friday of last week, we have to conclude that any day during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't down more than 1000 points is a good day. Today was an okay day. The DJIA plunged 1652.81 through 9:42 a.m. It then soared 2518.86 by 10.16 a.m. on a bogus report that President Trump

Ed Yardeni

Scared Cat Bounce?

Mar 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday the bottom? It might have been based on sentiment indicators. On a fundamental basis, President Donald Trump (a.k.a., Tariff Man) didn't tweet about tariffs today after doubling down on Thursday. "I'm not going to bend at all," Trump said when asked about

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Spooking Stock Jockeys

Jan 12, 2025 2 min read paid

Last year, during August, we anticipated that US bond yields would rebound. Indeed, they have. During December, we expected a stock market correction at the start of the new year. So far, there has been a significant pullback in almost all of the major stock market indexes since the S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6, 2024 (chart). Some of these pullbacks, which are 5%

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Some Air Coming Out Of Post-Election Balloon

Dec 30, 2024 3 min read paid

The post-election rally has been losing steam since early December (chart). The S&P 500 peaked at a record high on December 6. From a sentiment perspective, there have been too many bulls. From a technical perspective, breadth has been narrowing again as a few LargeCap momentum stocks continue to outperform. From a fundamental perspective, while earnings growth should remain bullish, the Fed may be done easing monetary policy

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Game of Drones

Dec 15, 2024 3 min read

Look up in the sky. It's a bird. It's a plane. It's Superman! Nope, it's lots of drones flying over New Jersey, New York, and Maryland typically between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. They are reportedly the size of an SUV, so they aren't likely to be owned by hobbyists. Some folks are getting panicky about all these

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Will Trump 2.0 Be Volatile?

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

In recent conversations with our accounts, many of them said that the financial markets may be more volatile under Trump 2.0 over the next six months than they were over the past 12-18 months. In Thursday's QT, we observed that contrarian indicators are showing that there are too many bulls, which is bearish. A couple of prominent and vocal permabears recently conceded that the bulls have been

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: The Trump/Musk/Vivek/Santa Rally

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

For better or worse, Trump's New World Order will certainly be different from Biden's Old World Order. Moreover, the globalists of the World Economic Forum, headed by Klaus Schwab (and Greta Thunberg), are about to be seriously challenged by Trump's anti-globalists. Klaus has been calling for the "Great Reset" including a "stakeholder economy," replacing fossil fuels with solar and wind

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Powell's Latest Pirouette

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is an accomplished danseur. His pirouette's are masterful. He did another such pivot on Friday in prepared remarks for a speech [starts at 19:00] to business leaders in Dallas. He said that, "the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." That's what we've been saying since Powell

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Happy Second Birthday To The Young Bull!

Oct 13, 2024 2 min read

The S&P 500's latest bull market turned two-years old on Saturday. It started on October 12, 2022. Sentiment was extremely bearish back then (chart). There were widespread fears of a recession caused by the tightening of monetary policy. Those fears lingered through October 4 of this year, when a stronger-than-expected employment report once again confirmed that the young bull correctly discounted that inflation would fall while

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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