Technology

Market Call: Momentum Meltup, Blowoff Top, Or Both?

Jun 16, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer price disinflation is raising expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is fueling a meltup in stock prices. This morning on CBS' "Face the Nation," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that a rate cut by year-end is a “reasonable prediction.” On Friday, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 4.25% to 4.20%. The technical picture is signaling that it might continue to fall

Ed Yardeni

Moon Shot

Mar 21, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today closing at 5241.53 (chart). We wrote the following last year on July 19 in our Morning Briefing: "The S&P 500 is now almost at [our yearend target of] 4600. It closed at 4556.27 on Tuesday. Rather than raise our year-end target, we are raising our expectations for what the bull market could deliver

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Has Discounted Lots Of Good News

Mar 19, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia was up a measly 1% today despite the exciting presentation, after Monday's close, by CEO Jensen Huang about the company's future in the AI ecosystem. He announced a new generation of GPU chips and software for running AI models. The first chips in the new Blackwell platform will be shipped later this year. They are more powerful (with a five-fold increase in petaflops) and consume

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Nvidia's Lovefest Versus Powell's (Perhaps Depressing) Presser

Mar 17, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia's three-day AI lovefest for developers starts Monday afternoon in San Jose, California. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm following the meeting. During his congressional testimony on March 7, Powell indicated that the Fed "is not far from...dial[ing] back the level of restriction." After last week's hotter than

Ed Yardeni

Core CPI Continues To Moderate

Mar 12, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

New Risk: Powell Stoking Risk-On Trades

Mar 7, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish congressional testimony yesterday and today stoked the hot trades in the financial markets from Nvidia to bitcoin to gold: "We're waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we're not far from it, it'll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,

Ed Yardeni

Nvidia For Fun & Profit

Feb 21, 2024 2 min read paid

As a result of the AI gold rush, billions of dollars are being spent on Nvidia’s GPUs. They seem to be the only game in town. Huge investments in AI-related hardware and software are likely, eventually, to boost productivity significantly. That’s great for our Roaring 2020s scenario. We simply don’t know at this time how long “eventually” will turn out to be. The lack of numerous suppliers

Ed Yardeni

38,000

Jan 22, 2024 2 min read paid

The DJIA rose to a new record high of 38,001.81 today (chart). The DJTA is lagging behind the DJIA and remains below its record high. We are expecting that the DJTA will soon confirm the bullish trend of the stock market by rising to a new record high too. In extended trading, United Airlines rose more than 6% after reporting strong Q4 results. Investors are anticipating that Q4

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Three Scenarios

Jan 21, 2024 2 min read

We now see three possible historical precedents for the economy, the Fed, and the stock market's performance ahead: (1) The 1920s (with a subjective probability of 60%). This is our base case "Roaring 2020s" scenario. We've been discussing it since the start of the current decade. Our basic premise is that a chronic shortage of labor is forcing companies to use technological innovations to

Ed Yardeni

NVIDIA Leads The Way

Jan 8, 2024 2 min read paid

Nvidia led the stock market higher today after the world's most valuable chipmaker announced new desktop graphics processors taking advantage of artificial intelligence. The company's stock climbed 6.4% to end at $522.53, its highest close ever (chart). Nvidia's rally boosted the PHLX Semiconductor index by 3.3%. Semiconductors and related technology companies are benefitting from the enthusiasm about AI. Is it hype?

Ed Yardeni

Are Stock Valuations Rerating?

Oct 26, 2023 2 min read

The economic news today was very good. But the stock market sold off sharply for the second day in a row led by a 1.90% drop in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 fell 1.19% today (chart). That's even though the bond market behaved with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.985% at 8:25 am to 4.851% by the close. But

Ed Yardeni

Another Tech Wreck?

Oct 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The market chose to go down today on Google's disappointing Q3 earnings report rather than Microsoft's upside surprise on Tuesday after the close. Contributing to today's selloff was the rebound in the 10-year bond yield back up to 4.95%. Tech has been weighing on the market since mid-July as the yield rose by 100bps. The Nasdaq is down 10.7% since its 2023

Ed Yardeni

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