US Economy

Investors May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy

Jul 24, 2025 2 min read paid

The four-week moving average of weekly initial unemployment claims provides a real-time indicator of the labor market (chart). It has been improving recently as the four-week average of jobless claims has been falling. Employers may be less concerned about the possible adverse impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy and on their companies. They should also be gaining confidence in the economy's resilience as validated by

Ed Yardeni

The Roaring 2020s: Six Years of Resilience, So Far

Jul 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The economy won't let us down. Despite numerous crises, real GDP has remained recession-resistant since the Covid lockdown during the first half of 2020. That's almost six recession-free years notwithstanding the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the tightening of monetary policy, the war in the Middle East, and Trump's Tariff Turmoil. Despite the five crises, it really has been the Roaring 2020s so

Ed Yardeni

IN 11 CHARTS: Fed Remains On Hold, But Still Leans Towards Easing

Jun 19, 2025 5 min read paid

President Donald Trump has been calling on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. The Fed chair has been the object of intensifying schoolyard jabs from the President. "We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed," Trump told reporters following the Fed's stand-pat decision on Wednesday. "Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed? I'd do a much better job

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Not Much Stagflation Today

May 15, 2025 4 min read

Earlier this year, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he and President Donald Trump were focusing on the 10-year Treasury bond yield as a key metric for economic health, rather than the Fed's short-term interest rate. He stated, "He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," indicating a strategy to manage borrowing costs through fiscal policy rather than pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

US Economy Is Tariffied

Apr 30, 2025 3 min read paid

President Donald Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is certainly upsetting global trade relations and confusing financial markets. This is all having an effect on the US economy, as evidenced by today's Q1 GDP report. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that real GDP fell 0.3% (saar) (chart). By the end of the day, the

Ed Yardeni

REPRINT: 'The Protectionist Road To Depression.' Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Mar 28, 2025 20 min read

💡This is a timely reprint of a September 9, 1985 Topical Study by Edward Yardeni titled "The Protectionist Road To Depression." The original with charts can be found here. It is very relevant to today's debate over the trade policies of the Trump administration, which is scheduled to announce reciprocal tariffs on most of America's major trading partners on April 2. Will they retaliate

Ed Yardeni

Economic Growth Seems To Be Picking Up

Feb 10, 2025 3 min read paid

Bearish stock market narratives have been pervasive since early 2022. They are becoming more so now with each headline coming out of Washington. Duties, deportations, duties, and de-bureaucratization (the four "Ds") can have a shock-and-awe effect. But financial markets broadly have been unperturbed because the US economy continues to be rock solid. Then again, reining in the budget deficit and trade deficit is no easy task. President Donald

Ed Yardeni

A Bunch Of Cool & Colorful Charts

Jan 9, 2025 3 min read

I. US FINANCIAL MARKETS The bull/bear ratios have dropped sharply over the past couple of weeks (chart). From a contrarian perspective that's a bullish development for the US stock market. The US bond yield has been increasing while the ratio of industrial to precious metals commodity prices has been falling since 2022 (chart). This unusual divergence might suggest that bond investors are increasingly concerned about the long-term

Ed Yardeni

Home For the Holidays

Nov 27, 2024 3 min read

This is the time of the year when we all count our blessings. The Yardeni Research team thanks you for your interest in our research. We wish you a great Thanksgiving tomorrow with your family and friends at your home or theirs. Since 2010, we've been recommending a Stay Home investment strategy, i.e., overweighting the US in global equity portfolios, rather than a Go Global strategy. So

Ed Yardeni

Stock Market Rally Broadening As Economy Chugs Along

Nov 21, 2024 3 min read

Fed officials may be cutting rates because they are worrying about the ominous "long and variable lags" of their monetary policy tightening from March 2022 through August 2024. But there are still no signs that those lags exist as the economy continues to chug along. It's true that the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell yet again during October, but it has been a misleading

Ed Yardeni

Trump 2.0 Supercharges Our Stay Home Investment Strategy

Nov 14, 2024 3 min read paid

We've been bullish on the dollar for a while. Since, the Fed's September 18 meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 5.8% (chart). Roughly half of that move has occurred since last Tuesday's US elections. The strong dollar confirms our view that the Fed has already cut the federal funds rate too much too soon, and now likely won’t be lowering

Ed Yardeni

The Front Cover Curse

Oct 22, 2024 1 min read

We've been recommending overweighting the US in global equity portfolios since 2010. We still are, and it is still working (chart). We started writing about the Roaring 2020s in the US in 2020. For example, on August 11, 2020, we wrote: "We live in interesting, though not unprecedented, times. The Roaring 1920s could be a precedent for the Roaring 2020s. As Mark Twain observed: 'History doesn’

Ed Yardeni

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