US Economy

Global Bond Rout Made In Japan?

Sep 17, 2026 5 min read paid

I. Yen-Carry Trade Unwinding? The “yen‑carry trade” has been a key feature of global financial markets since roughly 2012. It rested on two pillars: ultra-low Japanese interest rates and either a weak or relatively stable yen. Hedge funds could borrow funds cheaply in yen, convert the proceeds to other currencies, and buy government bonds in those currencies. The beauty of this trade is that it increased downward

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Fed's Hawks Circling Over Hot US Economy

Sep 16, 2026 5 min read paid

I. The Fed Today marked the conclusion of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The Fed's monetary policy committee delivered a widely anticipated 25bps increase in the federal funds rate (FFR), raising the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Here are five key takeaways from today’s decision: (1) The decision was unanimous. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the FFR by 25bps, showing unanimous agreement

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Too Much Complacency?

Jul 15, 2026 5 min read paid

Our Roaring 2020s thesis holds that the demand side of real GDP remains supported by resilient consumer spending and robust business investment. On the supply side, tech-led productivity is boosting real GDP, while keeping a lid on inflation. Now that the economy has proven its mettle over the first seven years of the decade, it should continue to do so over the remaining three years of the Roaring 2020s.

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

A Well-Balanced US Labor Market

Jun 30, 2026 4 min read paid

The stock prices of ADP, Paychex, and ManpowerGroup sold off sharply last year as hiring cooled. Employers froze their headcounts as they assessed the impacts of Trump's tariffs and of AI technologies on their businesses (chart). On May 8, we wrote that the labor market was showing early signs of improvement and that employment-related stocks may have bottomed. So far, so good. Employers now seem to have

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Is Wall Street's AI Boom Spreading To Main Street? Nothing To Fear But FOMO?

Jun 2, 2026 4 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today, rising above 7600 for the first time. On May 11, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250, still the highest forecast on Wall Street. We did so because of the strength and breadth of S&P 500 earnings during the Q1 earnings reporting season. That led us to conclude that

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 13-17

Apr 12, 2026 3 min read

The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain center stage this week. It is having an immediate impact on energy prices in the United States. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will push prices up again at the start of the week. The impact on the US inflation pipeline remains the dominant macroeconomic theme, ahead of Tuesday's March PPI release. A relatively quiet week on the economic

Ed Yardeni
Toby Hearst

Relief Rally Ends Correction Risk

Mar 31, 2026 3 min read paid

Today's powerful relief rally in the stock market was fueled by news that President Donald Trump intends to declare victory in the war with Iran, according to an article in this morning's Wall Street Journal. Around noon, the market moved higher still on a report that the President of Iran said his country is ready to end the war if the US agrees to its 5-

Ed Yardeni
Elias Griepentrog

Economy & Earnings Are Heating Up

Feb 2, 2026 4 min read paid

There's never a dull moment in our business these days. Events impacting the financial markets are happening so fast that we probably need to stop every now and then to update you on our latest forecasts. We are still targeting the S&P 500 at 7,700 by the end of this year and 10,000 by the end of the decade. The 10-year Treasury bond

Ed Yardeni

More Thoughts On The Latest 'Big Short' & Other Matters

Nov 5, 2025 3 min read paid

On Tuesday, investors sold AI-related stocks on news that Michael Burry had shorted Palantir and Nvidia. Today, investors realized that his most prominent short position by far is in Palantir, which currently has a forward P/E of 212.9. Nvidia has a forward P/E of 32.7 (chart). Except for Tesla, the other Magnificent-7 have lower forward P/Es than Nvidia. Burry is famous for his

Ed Yardeni

The 'Big Short' Is Shorting AI

Nov 4, 2025 3 min read paid

Hedge fund manager Michael Burry was portrayed in the film The Big Short. He bet big against the housing market before the 2008 crash and made a fortune. Now, he is taking another "big short" position against Nvidia and Palantir, two widely held AI stocks (chart). A regulatory filing showed that his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, has bought put options on the two high flyers. Investors are

Ed Yardeni

Economy Still Moving Forward

Oct 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The government shutdown continues to shut off the supply of many economic indicators. Tomorrow's CPI inflation rate for September is an exception. It is widely expected to remain stuck at 3.0% on a y/y basis. Based on a few conversations with friends about their businesses, we won't be surprised if the CPI is hotter than that, since President Donald Trump's tariffs may

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Slim Pickin's Among Economic Indicators

Oct 15, 2025 4 min read paid

The following is an excerpt from our October 14 Morning Briefing for institutional investors. We are sharing it with our QuickTakes members today. It isn’t easy being an economist when the government shutdown shuts off the flow of economic data. Nevertheless, the Fed is still open for business and issuing economic releases. So are several private-sector sources of economic indicators. On balance, the data we do have suggest

Ed Yardeni

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