US Economy - Yardeni QuickTakes

No Recession In Services

Public – 1 min read

Following today's release of September's nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (NM-PMI), the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised Q3's growth rate from 2.3% (saar) to 2.7%. Consumer spending and…

Oct 5, 2022

Slow Moving Economy

Public – 1 min read

August's industrial production and inflation-adjusted retail sales reports today show that the US economy is growing, but just barely. The former was down a bit, while the latter was up…

Sep 15, 2022

CPI Tends To Overstate Inflation Relative To PCED

Public – 1 min read

August's CPI unnerved the stock market because its core inflation rate was higher than expected. August's PCED will be released on September 30 and is likely to show a lower…

Sep 14, 2022

Inflation Shocks The Markets

Paid Members – 1 min read

August's CPI report shocked the financial markets. It was widely expected to confirm that inflation peaked around June based on the drop in gasoline prices during July and August and…

Sep 13, 2022

The Economic Week Ahead, September 12-16

Public – 1 min read

It's another action packed week ahead. On the inflation front, we are expecting that, on Monday, the FRB-NY survey of consumer inflationary expectations will show some moderation, reflecting the plunge…

Sep 10, 2022

One-Week Winning Streak

Paid Members – 1 min read

The DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 snapped a three-week losing streak today. Why? After all, on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell in an interview at Cato Institute reiterate that the…

Sep 9, 2022

Divine Disinflation In NM-PMI Survey

Public – 1 min read

Investors are rooting for "divine disinflation." We all want inflation to come down without a painful recession. We want the Fed to tighten one more time by 75bps and then…

Sep 6, 2022

Peak Freight Rates As US Keeps On Trucking?

Paid Members – 1 min read

US freight rates increased 28% y/y during July, but declined almost 2% m/m. That's according to the July Cass Freight report We expect that August's report, out in…

Sep 5, 2022

Lots Of Jobs, But...

Public – 1 min read

This morning's jobs report for August was a good one even though the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. It did so because 786,000 workers entered…

Sep 2, 2022

August's M-PMI: More Stag & Less Flation

Paid Members – 1 min read

August's M-PMI provides confirmation of our economic outlook including a growth recession and moderating inflationary pressures. On balance, it should have been bullish for both bonds and stocks this morning,…

Sep 1, 2022

The Economic Week Ahead (Aug. 29-Sept. 2)

Paid Members – 1 min read

Time marches on! September is almost here. The week ahead is packed with employment data starting with July's JOLTS (Tues.), jobless claims (Thurs.), and August's employment report (Fri.). August's consumer…

Aug 28, 2022

The Chairman's Speech: What Will Jerome Powell Say?

Public – 2 min read

Have you heard? Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday morning at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which is held at a…

Aug 24, 2022