US Treasury

Will Trump's Tariffs Get Tariffried By The Courts?

Aug 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The Trump administration is becoming increasingly concerned that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C., might soon rule that President Donald Trump lacks the legal authority to impose tariffs as he has been doing. That's our takeaway from a letter dated August 11 sent to the Clerk of the Court by two of the administration's top lawyers. It involves a

Ed Yardeni

Wednesday Is Not Just Fed Day But Also Treasury’s Refunding Day

Jul 28, 2025 3 min read paid

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest monetary policy decision. Odds are that it will be a non-event, i.e., the federal funds rate will remain unchanged (chart). The only drama will be whether the FOMC sticks to the current party line: "We are in no rush to lower interest rates." Or, will it signal a dovish pivot? If Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle

Ed Yardeni

Trump Making Powell The Fall Guy Again

Apr 17, 2025 3 min read paid

As we've said before, any day without Trump Tariff Turmoil (TTT) is a good day for financial markets. Despite UnitedHealth Group’s losing roughly a quarter of its value today on poor earnings and higher medical costs, the S&P 500 stayed mostly above yesterday's close all day. Even the Russell 2000 was up today. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly made progress on a

Ed Yardeni

Bessent Follows Yellen’s Lead & Gold Price Rises To New High

Feb 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The bond market relaxed today after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's debut Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) proved to be a non-event. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9bps to 4.43%, its lowest level since the Federal Reserve's last rate cut, in mid-December (chart). Bessent had been critical of Janet Yellen's usage of short-term Treasury bills to finance the federal budget deficit. Many investors, therefore, were

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

In Bessent We Trust

Nov 25, 2024 3 min read paid

The Bond Vigilantes like Scott Bessent, who was nominated to be US Treasury Secretary by Donald Trump yesterday. Their vote of confidence was reflected in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which fell to 4.28% from 4.42% at the end of last week. We like him too. We are looking forward to having him in the Trump administration working hard to make our Roaring 2020s scenario great. Earlier

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Modern Monetary Magic At Work

Oct 28, 2024 3 min read

Republican Everett Dirksen was the Senate Minority Leader during the 1960s. Cautioning that federal spending had a way of getting out of control, Dirksen reportedly observed, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money." Proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) have been claiming in recent years that the US federal government can run large budget deficits to fund social welfare programs

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Treasuries Anticipating Trump 2.0?

Jul 1, 2024 3 min read paid

Long-term US government bond prices fell sharply since the presidential debate on Thursday evening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.29% on Thursday afternoon to 4.48% today, the highest level since May 31 (chart). That was in spite of the lowest y/y print for the personal consumption expenditures deflator (PCED) since March 2021 on Friday and another sub 50.0 report for the M-PMI on Monday. We

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Flood of US Treasury Securities

Oct 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

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