Week Ahead

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 28–May 2

Apr 27, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic updates. The headliners will be Q1's GDP and March's personal income and expenditures (both Wed) as well as April's payroll employment (Fri). We're expecting relatively strong employment data, which should highlight the US economy's resilience notwithstanding Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The week's inflation indicators likely remained subdued, although tariff-related

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 21-25

Apr 21, 2025 3 min read

This week's data are likely to confirm that consumer sentiment (Fri) remained sour this month. The housing market is unlikely to have thawed last month given that mortgage rates remain high and building costs will increase with tariffs and a shortage of immigrant labor. Even some incremental good news on durable goods orders (Thu) would likely be chalked up to tariff front-running, especially as we expect regional Fed

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 14–18

Apr 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the goods-producing sector, consumer spending, and inflation. Macroeconomic data may be drowned out by more explosive volatility in the financial markets attributable to Trump's Nitro Tariffs (TNT). In addition, the Q1 earnings season has started, and company managements are likely to provide lots of "we-have-no-idea" guidance as a result of TNT. In any event, incoming data may signal

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: APRIL 7-11

Apr 6, 2025 3 min read paid

While Trump's tariffs will likely dominate the headlines, the economic week ahead will also focus on the inflationary impact of US import duties. We expect March's CPI (Thu) and PPI (Fri) to confirm our concern that higher goods prices will lift headline inflation measures quickly, preventing an easing policy response from the Fed. In other words, the Fed Put is likely on hold this year even

Ed Yardeni

LIBERATION WEEK: March 31-April 4

Mar 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump's Reign of Tariffs will likely dominate the economic week ahead. The big event will occur on April 2 (dubbed "Liberation Day" by President Donald Trump). That's when the administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a number of America's trading partners. However, it's very likely that tariff announcements will continue after that date, as bilateral negotiations are teased out and

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 24-28

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February's PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren't likely to translate to the PCED due to some hotter components that feed through to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Regardless,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 17-21

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

In the week ahead, lots of economic data will be packed into the first two days, followed by the FOMC meeting decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, though the tone of Powell's presser may depend on how February's batch of economic indicators released on Monday and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 10-14

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read paid

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last fall when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bps (chart). Businesses may have raised prices in February in anticipation of tariffs. If CPI services inflation remains sticky at January'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 24-28

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead will feature Nvidia's earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. That may be more important to the stock market than any of the economic indicators to be released during the week. Last week, Elon Musk's artificial-intelligence startup, xAI, unveiled its latest AI model, Grok 3, claiming it outperforms DeepSeek and OpenAI models across various benchmarks. The firm utilized 200,000 GPUs to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 18–21

Feb 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The shortened economic week ahead is an important one for our rolling recovery forecast in the manufacturing sector. January's data suggested that industrial production may be starting a cyclical rebound (chart). This week's early look at February's regional business survey data may confirm that. There will also be updates on the housing sector. Let's discuss what's up ahead:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 10-14

Feb 9, 2025 4 min read paid

The focus of the economic week ahead will be inflation. Businesses tend to raise prices at the beginning of the year; that could result in January CPI and PPI releases (Wed and Thu) that are hotter than expected even though both are seasonally adjusted. A few Fed officials recently worried out loud that tariffs could interrupt the progress toward the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. We expect Trump

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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