Week Ahead

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 27-31

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed full of important economic data releases, big tech earnings reports, and central bank meetings. Economic updates will include consumer sentiment, manufacturing, economic growth, and inflation. We're broadly expecting strong growth, including the first estimate of Q4 real GDP to come in around its historical average at 3.0% y/y (Tue), increasing from Q3's 2.7% (chart). Inflation should remain low,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 20–24

Jan 20, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will be light on economic indicators and heavy on executive orders (EOs). While the markets are closed on Monday for MLK Day, President Donald Trump will be inaugurated into office for his second term. Out of the gate, Trump 2.0 is likely to target tariff, immigration, regulatory, energy, and cultural issues with a deluge of EOs. Bitcoin might get a huge boost this week if Trump

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17

Jan 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with inflation, consumer, and manufacturing indicators. Long-term Treasury yields could climb closer to 5.00% this week if fears about stickier inflation intensify. We're expecting solid updates on consumer spending. In addition, Q4's S&P 500 bank earnings reported late in the week should be strong and counterbalance any hit to stock valuations from higher yields (chart). Here's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of labor market indicators for November and December. We're expecting them to beat expectations. As long as corporate earnings continue to reach new record highs, companies are likely to hire more workers and increase real wages (chart). Ultimately, that supports consumer spending and stock prices. Still, there are a number of potential headwinds for stocks, not the least of which is rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

CALENDAR: The Economic Week Ahead (Dec. 16-20)

Dec 15, 2024 3 min read paid

The main focus of the economic week ahead is the FOMC's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The most likely outcome will be a 25bps cut of the federal funds rate (FFR) to a target range of 4.25% -4.50%. After a full 100bps of cuts since September 18, we expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell will use his press conference after the FOMC meets to signal that the Fed

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 9-13

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of inflation updates. We're expecting stickier inflation readings that should ruffle the feathers of the Fed's doves. The FOMC is in a blackout period ahead of its December 17-18 meeting, meaning FOMC members won't be able to comment publicly. If the CPI news changes their minds about cutting the federal funds rate (FFR), they'll have to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale will be November's employment report on Friday. We are expecting this week's indicators to beat expectations, boosting the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and sending yields a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 25-29

Nov 24, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases, all in the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday. They are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year. The US economy and stock market are doing well. The most widely anticipated recession of all time has been a no-show for a third year. The S&P 500 is up 25.9% ytd and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 18-22

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates. Since the start of the bull market, we've been recommending overweighting the following cyclical sectors S&P 500 Information Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, and Energy (chart). We

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 11-15

Nov 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide updates on inflation, consumer spending, and manufacturing. We expect inflation might have stalled in October, interrupting its decline toward the Fed's 2.0% target. We still expect a solid increase in inflation-adjusted incomes last month, which should fuel strong consumer spending. The goods sector likely remained depressed last month, especially as hurricanes and worker strikes weighed on manufacturing hours worked. Here's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 4 - 8

Nov 3, 2024 3 min read paid

The blockbuster event in the week ahead is Tuesday's presidential election. We're rooting for gridlock, or a divided government. Both parties seem intent on passing policies which would widen the federal government budget deficit that's already too wide. Notwithstanding the stimulative outlook for fiscal policy, the Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps on Thursday to a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 28 - Nov 1

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with key indicators for the labor market, economic growth, and inflation, as well as more Q3 S&P 500 earnings. The first estimate of Q3 GDP will be followed by the September PCED inflation rate and October payroll employment. We're expecting continued strong growth and disinflation, though we anticipate that employment was muddled by one-time factors and that some components of the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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