Week Ahead

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 10-14

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read paid

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last fall when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bps (chart). Businesses may have raised prices in February in anticipation of tariffs. If CPI services inflation remains sticky at January'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 24-28

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead will feature Nvidia's earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. That may be more important to the stock market than any of the economic indicators to be released during the week. Last week, Elon Musk's artificial-intelligence startup, xAI, unveiled its latest AI model, Grok 3, claiming it outperforms DeepSeek and OpenAI models across various benchmarks. The firm utilized 200,000 GPUs to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 18–21

Feb 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The shortened economic week ahead is an important one for our rolling recovery forecast in the manufacturing sector. January's data suggested that industrial production may be starting a cyclical rebound (chart). This week's early look at February's regional business survey data may confirm that. There will also be updates on the housing sector. Let's discuss what's up ahead:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 10-14

Feb 9, 2025 4 min read paid

The focus of the economic week ahead will be inflation. Businesses tend to raise prices at the beginning of the year; that could result in January CPI and PPI releases (Wed and Thu) that are hotter than expected even though both are seasonally adjusted. A few Fed officials recently worried out loud that tariffs could interrupt the progress toward the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. We expect Trump

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 3-7

Feb 2, 2025 3 min read

Aside from plenty of news about tariffs, the economic week ahead is jampacked with economic indicators that might be affected by tariffs in coming months. Capped off by January's monthly employment report on Friday, the week will also include releases on manufacturing, worker productivity, and bank lending. We're expecting more strong employment data this week, consistent with our overall bullish outlook for the US economy. The

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 27-31

Jan 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed full of important economic data releases, big tech earnings reports, and central bank meetings. Economic updates will include consumer sentiment, manufacturing, economic growth, and inflation. We're broadly expecting strong growth, including the first estimate of Q4 real GDP to come in around its historical average at 3.0% y/y (Tue), increasing from Q3's 2.7% (chart). Inflation should remain low,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: January 20–24

Jan 20, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead will be light on economic indicators and heavy on executive orders (EOs). While the markets are closed on Monday for MLK Day, President Donald Trump will be inaugurated into office for his second term. Out of the gate, Trump 2.0 is likely to target tariff, immigration, regulatory, energy, and cultural issues with a deluge of EOs. Bitcoin might get a huge boost this week if Trump

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17

Jan 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with inflation, consumer, and manufacturing indicators. Long-term Treasury yields could climb closer to 5.00% this week if fears about stickier inflation intensify. We're expecting solid updates on consumer spending. In addition, Q4's S&P 500 bank earnings reported late in the week should be strong and counterbalance any hit to stock valuations from higher yields (chart). Here's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 6-10

Jan 5, 2025 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of labor market indicators for November and December. We're expecting them to beat expectations. As long as corporate earnings continue to reach new record highs, companies are likely to hire more workers and increase real wages (chart). Ultimately, that supports consumer spending and stock prices. Still, there are a number of potential headwinds for stocks, not the least of which is rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

CALENDAR: The Economic Week Ahead (Dec. 16-20)

Dec 15, 2024 3 min read paid

The main focus of the economic week ahead is the FOMC's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The most likely outcome will be a 25bps cut of the federal funds rate (FFR) to a target range of 4.25% -4.50%. After a full 100bps of cuts since September 18, we expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell will use his press conference after the FOMC meets to signal that the Fed

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 9-13

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of inflation updates. We're expecting stickier inflation readings that should ruffle the feathers of the Fed's doves. The FOMC is in a blackout period ahead of its December 17-18 meeting, meaning FOMC members won't be able to comment publicly. If the CPI news changes their minds about cutting the federal funds rate (FFR), they'll have to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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