Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale will be November's employment report on Friday. We are expecting this week's indicators to beat expectations, boosting the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and sending yields a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 25-29

Nov 24, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases, all in the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday. They are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year. The US economy and stock market are doing well. The most widely anticipated recession of all time has been a no-show for a third year. The S&P 500 is up 25.9% ytd and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 18-22

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates. Since the start of the bull market, we've been recommending overweighting the following cyclical sectors S&P 500 Information Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, and Energy (chart). We

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 11-15

Nov 10, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide updates on inflation, consumer spending, and manufacturing. We expect inflation might have stalled in October, interrupting its decline toward the Fed's 2.0% target. We still expect a solid increase in inflation-adjusted incomes last month, which should fuel strong consumer spending. The goods sector likely remained depressed last month, especially as hurricanes and worker strikes weighed on manufacturing hours worked. Here's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 4 - 8

Nov 3, 2024 3 min read paid

The blockbuster event in the week ahead is Tuesday's presidential election. We're rooting for gridlock, or a divided government. Both parties seem intent on passing policies which would widen the federal government budget deficit that's already too wide. Notwithstanding the stimulative outlook for fiscal policy, the Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 bps on Thursday to a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 28 - Nov 1

Oct 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with key indicators for the labor market, economic growth, and inflation, as well as more Q3 S&P 500 earnings. The first estimate of Q3 GDP will be followed by the September PCED inflation rate and October payroll employment. We're expecting continued strong growth and disinflation, though we anticipate that employment was muddled by one-time factors and that some components of the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 21-25

Oct 20, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will provide updates on the overall economy, manufacturing, and housing. Last week's jobless claims (Thu) will also be important for gauging how significant bad weather and worker strikes impacted the labor market. We expect more upside surprises during the current earnings season for Q3. The Nasdaq is likely to rise to a new record high before the end of the month and is currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 14-18

Oct 13, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead will likely confirm that consumer spending continues to shine, while manufacturing production remains lackluster. Meanwhile, as earnings season kicks off with the S&P 500 at a record high and valuations relatively stretched, the onus will be on company managements to deliver better-than-expected earnings, which should be relatively easy since expectations are low. As earnings surprises turned increasingly negative during the summer, so too did

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: October 7-11

Oct 6, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's inflation indicators should show that it continues to moderate toward the Fed's 2.0% target. Also, this week's initial unemployment claims (Thu) will be for the same week that October's payroll employment report will reflect. That should provide a sense of how Hurricane Helene (and some workers' strikes) might have impacted the next monthly jobs report. Of course, we

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with employment indicators. The Fed started a new monetary easing cycle on September 18, cutting the federal funds rate by 50bps. The question now is how hard will it press on the gas pedal? Given last week's cooler-than-expected inflation print, the Fed will most likely retain its bias for easier monetary policy unless the labor market data are surprisingly strong. The consensus currently

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: September 23-27

Sep 22, 2024 3 min read paid

This week's economic indicators should confirm our view that the Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps (rather than 25bs) last week just as the economy is rebounding from its recent soft patch. Fed Governor Chris Waller's Friday comments on CNBC suggest even previously hawkish FOMC members are now onboard Chair Jerome Powell's easing train. Meanwhile, regional manufacturing surveys (Tue & Thu)

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: September 16-20

Sep 15, 2024 3 min read paid

The main event this week is the FOMC meeting (Wed). The Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR), but with a heated debate over whether it will be 25bps or 50bps. Perhaps more important than the size of the first cut will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will provide Fed officials' updated forecasts for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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