Week Ahead

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 4-8

Aug 3, 2025 3 min read

Compared to last week’s dramatic data surprises, this week’s offerings are decidedly of the slim-pickings variety. But boring, the days ahead will not be. While we’re still of the thinking that President Donald Trump won’t fire Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair’s fate could be written between the lines of any data series that undershoots expectations. Following Friday’s weaker-than-expected July employment

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 28 - August 1

Jul 27, 2025 3 min read

This is a big week on the monetary policy front, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada all holding policy meetings. Naturally, the main event will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s widely expected decision (Wed) to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. We are among those expecting no change. However, we do expect that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference (Wed) will

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 21-25

Jul 20, 2025 3 min read

This might be a good week to take a summer vacation. The economic data calendar is light. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell will speak in Washington, perhaps offering an update on his views on employment, inflation, and interest rates. He won't comment on calls for his resignation. Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman could make some news at the same conference the following day. The European Central Bank is

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

Week Ahead: July 14 - 18

Jul 13, 2025 4 min read

This will be a jampacked week for economic indicators and big banks' Q2 earnings reports. We are relatively optimistic about the latter, which should be bullish for the stock market. The inflation news may show some signs of tariff-related warming. Consumer-related data are likely to be be mixed. The White House will probably keep tariffs and the Fed in the news on a daily basis. On balance,

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 30-July 4

Jun 29, 2025 3 min read

It may be July 4th week in the US, but we don't expect many fireworks on the economic data front. Of course, surprises could come from events in the Middle East, as Israel, Iran, and the Trump administration figure out whether the ceasefire will hold or missiles will start flying again. Surprises could also come from Trump's trade negotiations. A bunch of deals are expected in

William Pesek
Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 23 - 27

Jun 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Layered on top of a still-developing trade war, President Donald Trump's attack on Iran puts markets in decidedly uncharted territory. Much will depend on how Iran responds to the attack. Trump said in Saturday's White House address, if Iran doesn’t "make peace" then "future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." In addition, Trump's "Big

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 16–20

Jun 15, 2025 3 min read paid

The moment Fed watchers have waited for is finally here—albeit with less drama than many believed a few weeks back. As we've long said, the two-day June Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Tue-Wed) should come and go with the federal funds rate still in the 4.25%-4.50% range that it's been in since December. Even as headline inflation measures appear to

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 9 - 13

Jun 8, 2025 4 min read

Many of the questions the Fed has about how Trump's trade war is impacting the inflation outlook will get timely answers this week. Well, updates at least, since only President Donald Trump knows how long Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT) will continue disrupting the world's biggest economy. On Friday, we learned that half of Fed's dual mandate is doing just fine. The full-

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 2 - 6

Jun 1, 2025 3 min read

There's no question that President Donald Trump is stress testing the resilience of the economy with what we've been (objectively) calling Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). The latest developments on Friday: Trump declared that China is violating terms agreed upon in its trade deal with the US, and he raised the tariff on aluminum and steel from 25% to 50%. Nevertheless, the resilience of the

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 27 - 30

May 26, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is starting with another tariff whiplash. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners but postponed them for 90 days on April 9. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on the European Union, Apple Inc., and perhaps Samsung and other tech giants to be named later. But on Sunday, he postponed Friday's June 1 tariff of 50%

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 19–23

May 18, 2025 3 min read

The week ahead is light on economic indicators. Fed officials undoubtedly will make some headlines. They are likely to reiterate Fed Chair Jerome Powell's basic message during his May 7 presser: "We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension. If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially

Ed Yardeni
William Pesek

ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 5–9

May 4, 2025 3 min read

US employers are confounding the naysayers–and complicating the Federal Reserve's decision this week. It's no secret that President Donald Trump wants the Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates at its May 6-7 meeting. Yet the economy isn't cooperating, as companies added a robust 177,000 jobs in April (chart). US average hourly earnings, meanwhile, are up 3.8% over the

Ed Yardeni

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